Is China Just One More Country With A DC Lobby?

The WaPo has an article reporting on the increased effectiveness of China's lobbying efforts inside the Beltway. The tone of the piece is more than a tad laudatory.

A number of members of both houses of Congress (all of the Democratic Party persuasion) are quoted. All have nothing but nice things to say about China and the Gnomes of Beijing who run the place.

The WaPo grudgingly allows that this upbeat tone on the Hill does not reflect the views of the majority of Americans. The writer, John Promfit assigns this backwards attitude on the part of many in We the People to either China's Communist past or its record in the human rights department.

Duh!

Just how could so many otherwise sensible Americans be so wrong? How could affairs have come to such a sorry pass that We the People do not, as does one of the Congressional worthies notes, see "the Chinese as Chinese and not Communists?"

Guess it must be the sheer cussed reactionary nature of so many of us in the hoi polloi. Right, Senator Kerry? How else can it be that your wave of applause for the munificent and benevolent Chinese is not shared by every American who has not been duped by the barely concealed populist fascists of the Tea Party movement?

Or, to advance an alternative which is both more parsimonious and more rooted in the real world of evidence and behavior: The Americans who distrust the Chinese (even while buying the products of their factories and slave labor camps) have a far more accurate understanding of the Chinese government, its past and its future intentions than the assorted Democrats. Rather than irrational fear or the after effects of "a Cold War mentality," the distrust of China evinced in recent public opinion polls might be based on a coolly reasoned appraisal of the policies, actions, and rhetoric of the Chinese government.

While the Congresspeople and Senators may not know it, the only political party in the People's Republic of China is the Chinese Communist Party. (OK for you detail minded folks: There are another eight small parties, all controlled by the CCP.) This fact implies strongly that China is, in fact, a Communist country even though there is an obvious and large number of privately owned enterprises--all of which exist on government sufferance and will continue to operate only as long as it is the interests of the state and government.

Thus the distrust of Beijing because it is Communist is not a relic of the bad old days of the Cold War but a realistic appraisal of the current and future reality of China. Score one for the benighted American public.

While the Congresspeople and Senators may not know it, China is not, as one of the quoted Democrats averred, just like the UK, France, or Germany--but trying to play catchup in its lobbying activities. The UK, France, Germany may undertake a little discrete espionage against the US. Each of these long standing allies of the US may periodically undertake a bit of bash-on-Uncle-Sam.

China is in an entirely different category all together. Its espionage actions, including those of a cyber nature, far transcend in frequency, persistence, and breadth those of any other nation including the far-from-friendly Russia. On the diplomatic front China is normally opposed to any demarche at the UN and elsewhere which is supported by the US or its Western European associates. Whether the Iranian nuclear question, anthropogenic climate change, or any other matter of seemingly shared concerns, Beijing is always within the opposition.

The American hoi polloi is both aware of these facts and, unlike the aforementioned Democrats, factors its awareness into its appreciation of China's relation with the US both at the present and in the future. Score two for We the People.

Unmentioned in the encomiums flowing from the Democratic Party statesmen is the explosive growth of the Peoples Liberation Army. The Chinese possess a military capacity far surpassing any legitimate defense need. Further, all the straws in the defense wind indicate that the Chinese are neither slowing nor likely to slow the continued development of the PLA. Given the absence of any current or near-term threat to Chinese territory, the only plausible reason for the ongoing investment in the military is the utility of a large, modern and well equipped military as a diplomatic support instrument. (Whether a nation speaks loudly or softly it is more likely to be heard if it possesses a very big stick.

The American public is aware of this unmentioned T. rex at the dinner table even if the Deep Thinkers of the Democratic Party on the Hill are oblivious. Score three for We the People.

One fact of life mentioned by the Democrats is both real and very, very potent. China holds a lot of dollars and dollar denominated IOUs of American origin. This is the well known remember-boy-we-hold-your-note approach to life. The very fact that the Gnomes of Beijing hold multiple billions of our dollars and IOUs assures them of a quite respectful hearing on the Hill.

The attention and respect given to the needs, desires, and views of the Gnomes of Beijing grow in tandem with the Congressionally driven need to borrow ever increasing mountains of money to fund the dreams of the Progressive Caucus's (and President Obama's) Great Transformational Agenda. It may be mere coincidence but it is of more than passing interest that each and every of the quoted cheerleaders for China has voted for (1) TARP, (2) the stimulus bill, and (3) the most expensive of the health care overhaul measures (as well as other assorted "progressive" spending measures of dubious utility.

With the deficit already in numbers with which only astronomers are comfortable and the high probability it will go ever higher, the need for borrowing back more of the dollars spent by We the People on items of Chinese provenance comes more and more pressing. Since most if not all of the quoted Democrats are committed internationalists, the notion of exchanging diplomatic freedom as well as American national and strategic security for a large mess of potage is quite thinkable.

Perhaps the lure of more easily borrowed money is of such power that the assorted fine folks quoted can overlook such bagatelles as this year marks the fiftieth anniversary of the midpoint of the Great Famine which accompanied the Chinese Great Leap Forward and cost, according to Chinese governmental figures, some fifty million Chinese lives. To this day the Beijing regime has never, never acknowledged the famine occurred as a result of state policy, state planning, state indifference, and state control of all aspects of Chinese life--and death.

Some of the people quoted in the WaPo article might be inclined to toss out that bit of critical history as irrelevant to today's world politics. Such cavalier dismissal of the greatest man-made famine in human history is, self-evidently, wrong.

Within today's Chinese senior leadership are to be found men who were present in junior roles during the two "Greats," the famine and the leap forward. They knew and know what happened and see no ethical problem. Instead they see lessons learned: Collectivism does not work, control, total control, of the media of communication, the writing of history, and the collective memory of the nation all work very well for regime maintenance.

Germany admitted its collective culpability for the Holocaust. The Soviet Union, long before its dissolution, acknowledged the central role played by both Stalin and the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in the vast famine in the Ukraine and elsewhere during its forced draft move to collectivize agriculture.

The Chinese government has never accepted the reality that its failed policy was the direct cause of the massive three year die-off of its own people. Nor is there any probability that Beijing will ever do so--even though the tail can be pinned on the dead donkey of Mao.

Compared to the Great Famine or the devastation brought by the Cultural Revolution, the more recent human rights abuses of the Beijing regime pale into virtual insignificance. This in no way downplays the responsibility of the Chinese government in its ongoing suppression of basic human rights. It in no way relieves the Gnomes of Beijing from their direct, personal guilt for the egregious violation of international conventions to which the regime has formally subscribed.

China is not like other countries. It is not like Germany, France, the UK or even Russia. It is not even in the same minor leagues of total disregard for basic human rights as the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Sudanese. It is one of a kind. A league of its own.

The American public--or at least a large portion of it--is evidently aware of this. The Democratic Party "China Lobby" is apparently not.

This degree of willful self-delusion must exist for a reason. There is a reason. It is to be found in that great nearly final line in the film Fargo. Perhaps you remember it--

"All of this. For a little bit of money."

Not In An Ocean Near Us!

The Chinese are feeling peppy these days. Last week a heavy from the Peoples Liberation Army's Second Artillery Corps went international on how the PLA is developing information warfare technology. Of course, he denied that the boys and girls of the PLA were actually using this technology. Yet.

The general's denial of cyber-espionage or related activities was both pro forma and completely contrary to a goodly amount of evidence which has emerged in open sources over the past couple of years. Still, you can't expect the Chinese to come right out and admit what the hundreds of PLA personnel hovering over an equal number of terminals are actually doing in the cathodes' glow.

Comes now the the PLA's Navy. The peaceloving peoples of China acting through their equally peaceloving government have been beavering away down in Hainan. That island has been turned into a major naval and air facility. Nuclear submarine pens, dockyards, major air force installations and supporting structures litter the once pristine countryside.

Eight years ago the PLA's sensitivities over Hainan came into public view when one of their fighters had a mid-air collision with a US Navy elint aircraft. The US plane was able to make a forced landing at one of the airstrips on Hainan. The Chinese fighter was not so fortunate.

The resulting contretemps was finally resolved by the Bush Administration kind of, sort of, perhaps, maybe, offering a form of non-apology apology. The Chinese released the interned American crew and (ultimately) the remains of the aircraft.

One hopes the self-destruct gear built into the ferret's elint suite worked as promised.

At the time of the collision the US plane was over international waters although perhaps at the edge of the Chinese Exclusive Economic Zone which, in common with global practice. extends two hundred miles offshore. No one can allege that the US plane was illegally exploiting resources within the EEZ.

The same can be said regarding the incident involving units of the PLA's Navy and the US research ship USNS Impeccable. The Chinese craft maneuvered in a manner which put both them and the Impeccable at risk. In addition to this, one of the PLA (N) vessels strewed debris in the Impeccable's path.

The Chinese government has gone high volume noise machine in justifying their "defensive" action against the Impeccable. The usual accusations have flown from their Foreign Ministry regarding US provocation and violation of international agreements beyond numbering.

The Impeccable is equipped to do a number of tasks. One of its top functions is detailed sonar mapping. This sort of thing is useful but only in a military context.

The Chinese government and military know this. Both are fully aware that the US was not and is not violating the Chinese economic prerogatives in its EEZ. The PRC understands the military implications of the US doing detailed reconnaissance of the seabed only seventy-five miles from its naval constellation on Hainan.

That, however, is not the motivation behind the confrontation and resulting bellows of protest which nearly equal those following the mid-air collision in the first months of the Bush Administration.

So, what was it then? You want to know.

The action off Hainan was calibrated with care. The Chinese patrol vessels were all small, highly maneuverable and operated at slow speed. It is evident that the Impeccable had been under observation for some time before the event. Sonar mapping is not a high speed, low drag operation. It requires holding a constant course and speed with turns only at designated points. Thus, it is simple and relatively safe to approach the survey vessel at close range and hassle it.

Since the PLA is very, very hierarchical in organisation and under the firm control of the central authorities, it is proper to conclude that the operation was pre-approved, probably ordered by, the Lads in the Forbidden City. The locals carried out the order when the opportunity presented itself under conditions of good visibility and calm seas. (Cautious, very cautious boldness is a hallmark of the Beijing regime.)

It is fair to assume that the Chinese Foreign Ministry and its masters in the Forbidden City are perfectly well aware that the international agreements defining Exclusive Economic Zones provide certain rights. These rights do not include that of preventing maritime surveys of a non-economic nature conducted by unarmed naval vessels.

The Chinese know perfectly well that the EEZ definitions prevent not only the interference with innocent passage by armed vessels but also interference with normal subsea mapping and related activities. The PRC authorities know that if they were to send a ship equivalent to the Impeccable to map the seabed off the US coast there would be no American challenge--diplomatic or otherwise. We might watch them from a safe distance, but that would be the extent of our Navy's direct involvement.

This being the case, it is possible to conclude that the Chinese action was meant as a test of the Obama administration's patience and resolve. It is the equivalent of a shoulder bump in a crowd--a means of testing response without running a risk.

Think of it as a more finely nuanced and carefully controlled version of the airplane tag practiced with overly dramatic effects in the sky off Hainan eight years ago.

So why do it?

Because the Chinese want to know more about the capacity and will of the new administration to deal with the ever-increasing threat which they present to our freedom of action in the far reaches of the Pacific. The Chinese are in the midst of an immense improvement of their military capacities across the board.

They are rapidly developing a blue water capacity including not only nuclear submarines equipped with SLBMs but are edging into an area of naval warfare long the sole province of the US--carrier born aviation. The Chinese, like the Soviets before them, are abandoning coast defense as the primary function of their naval force.

The PLA itself is becoming leaner, meaner and more technologically advanced every day. It is far and away the most formidable force on the Asian landmass--including the Russian army in Siberia. Even without the evidently programmed improvements, the PLA has a capacity today far surpassing any legitimate defense requirement.

In air defense the Chinese have become a very, very tough target. Currently the programmed air defenses of the PLA are such that the US would have a difficult time effectively penetrating Chinese airspace. Only the F-35, F-117 and B-2 could penetrate without unacceptable losses. How long this will remain the case is debatable.

The Chinese have demonstrated an ASAT capacity and are known to be working on cloning the US ABM capabilities. Neither of these are reassuring to those who might want to see the US maintain its freedom of action in the far Pacific or elsewhere on the Asian landmass.

Of course all of these unpleasant Chinese developments became drearily predictable way back when. Way back when President Bill Clinton opened the doors of trade with the PRC. The neoliberals of that day believed that the web of trade made sure China was fully embraced and thus less likely to be truculent.

Access to American markets simply made sure that money flowed from the US to the PRC. It made certain that the Lads of the Forbidden City would have the means necessary to upgrade the peasant army of the PLA to a first class force and a genuine threat to American interests. The opening of the US also made it easier for the Chinese to gain access to American technology--by means either fair or foul.

As the experience of the previous half century had made clear, espionage simplifies research and development of advanced military technologies. Apparently neither the Clinton nor the Bush Administration bothered to review the history of the Cold War and the constant use made by the Soviets of espionage to gain access to critical US technologies.

With money gushing, secrets flowing and infrastructure growing there is no mystery to the growth of the Chinese threat to American national and strategic interests. Nor is there any mystery behind the periodic diplomatic jostles handed to us by the Chinese military. The Lads in the Forbidden City want to know--must know--how far they can push us before we push back.

The unarmed, non-lethal skirmish off Hainan may not be the "test" warned of by candidate Joe Biden last fall, but it is a test even so. More than seems to be involved hangs on the nature and character of the Obama Administration's response.

If the ripost is too mild, too lackluster, too apologetic, the US can expect more jostles, more tests. Perhaps even the big test of which Biden warned.