The Smart Money Was Wrong

As even the WaPo acknowledged recently it has been an article of faith among the cognoscenti that China using its massive soft power economic strength would dominate Southeast Asia completely. Perhaps, just perhaps, that would have been the case if the Trolls of Beijing had been patient enough, cautious enough, and canny enough.

However, the Trolls did not exhibit patience, caution, and canniness. No. They have gone ahead and gotten pushy. They have opted for a "hard power," military approach. Coercion of a naked, direct nature has been the tone. This has produced results which are both pleasing and drearily predictable.

The countries of the ASEAN region have flocked to the US as the only possible guarantor of regional stability. The only credible deterrent to overweening Chinese ambitions and very disturbing rattling of sabers.

This dynamic is, as the Geek noted above, drearily predictable. Fifteen years ago while lecturing at a senior US military school, the Geek opined that the US would, for example, hold joint exercises with Vietnam in not much more than a decade. When the audience was finished scoffing, the Geek offered as justification, "Beijing will make sure that happens. Long term, the Chinese will flex muscles over the South China Sea; the underwater oil deposits if nothing else will demand it."

The US and Vietnam are currently engaging in joint naval exercises with the destroyer USS John McCain making a port call as jets from the USS George Washington fly over Vietnamese territorial waters. The joint exercise has come immediately after the US did the same with South Korea to the intense annoyance of the Trolls.

Beijing went so far as to warn the US Navy to stay out of the Yellow Sea. The Trolls on grounds which are shakier than Obama's approval rating have claimed the Yellow Sea to be, in essence, their territorial water. This assertion is on a level with that of Libya regarding the Gulf of Sidra and we know how the Reagan administration dealt with that bit of cheek.

No one would expect the current adrift-in-the-Oval guy to do the same regarding the Chinese claim and warning, but as to the rest of the emerging diplomatic picture in Southeast Asia, it is to be hoped that his administration continues the policy announced in Hanoi by Secretary of State Clinton and underscored by the current series of joint naval exercises. The ASEAN states see the US as a Great Power. Further, they unanimously view the US as a beneficent one and China as malevolent.

The attitude of the several states of Southeast Asia, particularly those with competing claims about sovereignty over the South China Sea, demands the US act like the Great Power it is and serve as both a deterrent and mediator. This dynamic is a classic example of the relation between Great Powers and those of lesser rank.

Admittedly, the stance taken by the several states of the region serves to define their relations with the US as "special," and such bilateral alliances do not mesh with the Obama view of all states are created equal in their relations with the US. Even the assemblage of the several states under the ASEAN rubric does not meet the Obama test of "international institutions."

It will be tempting in the months to come as the Trolls become even more bumptious regarding their presumed "rights" in the South China Sea or their view that the areas of Southeast Asia and the far western Pacific constitute a Chinese sphere of influence for the US or at least its president to do a 180, to cut and run, to high tail it out of the game. The Trolls will show an increasingly uncooperative attitude regarding Iran. They will huff and puff mightily over just how much of Uncle Sam's IOU's they possess. They will show a pronounced unwillingness to loan the administration more.

In short, Beijing will become ever more unpleasant in all possible respects. Unless, of course, the US shows a more "flexible" attitude regarding the South China Sea and Southeast Asia in general. Given the budgetary constraints and the ever greater need to fund the deficit, there will be both impetus and excuse for backing away from the muscular posture assumed by Ms Clinton at Hanoi.

Coupled with Mr Obama's belief in the efficacy of the UN as well as his still extant faith in his own ability as a diplomat, a sort of Bismark, Talleyrand, and Metternich rolled up in one smiley package, the financial realities and Chinese firmness could well cause the current administration to resign American Great Power status. Such a move would constitute a surrender of influence and global authority akin to suicide upon the US.

The announcement by Secretary Clinton of US policy regarding the South China Sea and the demonstration of both will and capacity contained in the current series of naval exercises constitute the only diplomatic success in the Obama administration to date. The reason it has been a success is simple. The US has acted as a Great Power in not only pursuing its own long standing policies and national interests but doing so in conjunction with and response to the needs and fears of lesser powers under threat.

The Clinton Declaration came as a shock to the Trolls. It was probably just as shocking in chanceries around the world. It was a surprise to say the least to most American observers of the shambles which has passed for foreign policy these past months.

Perhaps it even came as a surprise to President Obama whose preternatural calm masks a capacity for a total lack of engagement. One can only hope he finds the Clinton Declaration and its aftermath to be a good surprise and resolve to support it--even as the Trolls turn up the heat both rhetorical and financial.

It's time to remind the Trolls of one of the best of the ancient Chinese toasts (and curses.) "May you live in interesting times."

Drawing A Line In The Water

After the Obama administration's dismal record of drawing lines in ever-shifting sands, as with the Iranian nuclear program, it was more than a bit refreshing to observe Secretary of State Clinton draw a line in water, specifically the South China Sea the other day. Overlooked in the brouhaha started by the Wikileaks Affair, Ms Clinton announced last Friday during the ASEAN meeting in Hanoi that the US had "a national interest" in seeking a mediated end to the dispute between China and other, much smaller Asian states over the Paracel and Spratly islands.

The myriad of very small islands, coral outcroppings, and reefs are unimportant in and of themselves. What is important, the only reason there has been a dispute between no fewer than six countries as to who owns what, is the documented presence of significant undersea oil deposits.

China, along with Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei claim all or parts of the thousand or so dots on the map which constitute the land portion of the disputed undersea territory. China and Vietnam have exchanged shots over the islands. Both have attempted with varying degrees of success to establish a physical, military presence on at least some of the larger (more than one acre) islands. To date China has gotten the better in the confrontations.

Not surprisingly, the Trolls of Beijing were not pleased by the Clinton declaration. Already greatly perturbed by the recent displays of power projection undertaken by the US in waters close to China, the Trolls expressed great displeasure with the temerity of the US position.

It was bad enough when Ohio class Tomahawk equipped submarines popped up around the Chinese maritime periphery. Matters were worsened (from the perspective of the Trolls) when a major task group centered on the Nimitz class carrier George Washington hove over the horizon for joint exercises with the South Korean navy. Then the Americans had the unmitigated gall to aver that they had an interest in the resolution of the ongoing South China Sea contretemps.

The nerve of those Americans! Their role, their only role, is to borrow Chinese money and buy products made in China. Beyond that, the round-eyed, big nosed barbarians are supposed to keep quiet and at a great distance from the Center Empire and its sovereign interests.

Two American oil companies have signed agreements with Vietnam allowing exploratory drilling in the part of the South China Sea claimed by Hanoi. In their counterblast to the Clinton declaration, the Chinese warned against the drilling. Beijing sounded rather like Buenos Aires did as the drills started turning in the ocean near the Falkland Islands.

It does seem a tad counterintuitive that the Obama administration might be taking a position favorable to offshore oil drilling considering the evident distaste felt for such in the Gulf of Mexico. But, the fact remains that two American companies (among those of other nationalities) want to go after the oil of the South China Sea, and the American Secretary of State went on record as supporting a new form of maritime Open Door policy.

US companies have known of the South China Sea oil for years. Back during the heyday of antiwar protests during the late Sixties, demonstrators often accused the Johnson and Nixon administrations of waging war in Vietnam to protect the future interests of Big Oil. That charge was baseless.

It is less baseless to assert that the US desires to see a quick, mediated end to the Spratly and Parcel dispute in order that drills might spin and oil might flow. This would benefit the US and all other consumers of oil--including the Chinese. Of course, the Chinese would reap much greater benefits if the oil flowed from fields under their control. That is self-evident.

There is, of course, no reason why the US should be supine before the understandable Chinese desire for this benefit. There are, however, a number of reasons other than economic self-interest why the US would seek a regional settlement to this ownership dispute. Chief among these are regional stability and, as a necessary concomitant, establishing limits to Chinese hegemony.

The Trolls of Beijing have already alarmed the smaller states of ASEAN with the Chinese build-up of naval power. The ambitious Chinese naval developments are far in excess of any possible defense need but still insufficient to counter the American power projection capacity. One result of this is a sort of arms race in the region. In the past couple of years, navies have become fashionable with all parties seeking to upgrade theirs. As an example, consider Japan's decision to build a new generation of submarines, the first in thirty years.

The ASEAN states look to the US as a force for regional stability. The governments in the region are realistic enough to understand that stability rests upon military force and the credible political will to use the hardware.

The US Navy is long on hardware. But, given the disarray of what passes for foreign policy under Team Obama, there is grave doubts throughout the ASEAN community about American political will.

The stance taken by the US in the wake of the sinking of the Cheonan went some distance in allaying the concerns pervading ASEAN capitals. The joint US-South Korean exercises as well as other multi-national naval wargames involving Asian forces helped as well. Now, the surprising announcement by Secretary Clinton regarding the dispute has gone even further in convincing directly involved states that the Obama administration can find some backbone under some circumstances.

The key matter, of course, is how long will this newly discovered spine stay intact. Will the US line in the water prove any more lasting, any more real than the past lines in the sand? Or, should the Trolls of Beijing huff and puff a bit more, show a bit more rhetorical fang, will the fresh new Obama backbone find itself afflicted with political osteoporosis?

Time will answer that question as it has so many others over the past eighteen months. It can be hoped that the answer this time is more positive than its predecessors.