The decision by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to seek an arrest warrant for the president of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, has made for a surprising and awkward joining of interests between the US, the PRC and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.
OK, perhaps not so much a juncture of interests as an intersection of anxiety. The crossing is marked by the ICC. The Chinese don't like it at all. The US is uncomfortable with it. Many member states of the OIC are afraid of it.
The Geek has to admit he is not thrilled by this monument to international High Mindedness either. It strikes him as another example of an emotion driven, feel-good reaction to the atrocious behavior of a small number of zealots and True Believers in leadership positions.
The 1998 Rome Statute which created the ICC conferred an ambiguously broad jurisdiction on the court charging it with authority to try and convict individuals regardless of status for a portmanteau of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. As a result of the breadth of jurisdiction and the grave potential for abuse of a politically or ideologically based nature, the current administration withdrew the assent granted to the Rome Statute by President Clinton in 2000. As a result the Statute has never been presented to the Senate for ratification.
Despite the fact that the US is not a party to the court, the current administration is loath to take any action which might be seen as granting any legitimacy to the ICC. As a result the W. Bush Administration has been, at best, ambivalent in its response to the widely applauded decision of prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo to seek the arrest warrant. To get the skinny, go to the AP http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jPO0qnku-2vJhJuBSUT5B8Qc61AAD91U5QC80.
The PRC, not unlike fellow Security Council member, Russia, opposes the ICC as it does all attempts by international entities to involve themselves in matters which are arguably of a purely internal nature. While Beijing officials aren't about to go on TV making so blunt a statement (particularly with the Olympic Games days away), there is not a shred of doubt regarding the government's position. The last thing China wants given its own record on suppressing internal political dissent is the potential for outside judgement.
(For the full Chinese position on the ICC arrest effort see the official news dispatch
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2394265&title=China_Expresses_Serious.html)
The same is true with respect to Russia. (Can we say, "Chechnya?")
Thus there is a good to excellent chance that the UN Security Council will interdict the prosecutor's efforts to see Omar in the slam. Any Security Council blockage will be suitably camouflaged and concealed, lest the High Minded of the world take umbrage.
And, umbrage will be taken. If not by governments, then by high profile non-governmental organisations. One has already given notice in an interview with Voice of America. The Save Darfur Coalition Policy Director Amjad Atallah, gave notice that his vocal group expects the Security Council to meet the same high standards as the ICC prosecutor. VOA has the interview http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2008-07-15-voa43.cfm.
Finally the OIC has rung in with a statement by its General Secretary to the effect that the attempt to seek the arrest of Bashir represents a "double standard." The OIC jefe clearly means that if Omar the Butcher ends up in the hoosegow in the Hague, OIC demands that he be joined in durance vile by any number of Israeli political and military figures. You can check the Geek's interpretation at http://www.oic-oci.org/oicnew/topic_detail.asp?t_id=1226.
Omar and his regime are not nice. The Sudanese government both under Omar and his predecessors has shown a remarkable appetite for bloodshed and an amazing willingness to see large numbers of Sudanese (particularly those who are Black and non-Muslim) die as a result of starvation caused by government action as well as more active measures. In principle, bringing the entire thuggish crew of mass killers to trial is a fine idea.
But we must remember the yawning gap between principle and practice. That gap serves to define the universe of unintended consequences which may well ensue. In Sudan these consequences might well entail further suffering and death.
Beyond the Sudan the consequences which may very well result from the precedent established by an arrest warrant bearing the name Omar al-Bashir could spread very wide. Politics and ideology permeate the air of High Minded international entities such as the ICC. Much as the Geek is uncomfortable with having a position which coincides with that of the current administration (let alone the PRC), he has to agree that the ICC is a field of landmines and one must walk very, very softly and slowly in such an area.
Showing posts with label Geroge W. Bush. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geroge W. Bush. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Friday, October 19, 2007
Current Administration Screws The Pooch--Again!
The President of the United States barely more than an hour ago showed that he is utterly without a grip regarding the war forced upon the United States and its actual allies. Simultaneously, he demonstrated that he remains firmly in the grip of big bidness (as they say in the Lone Star State.)
According to AFP http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jKQEeNk7Rr6Kn-3dxc6klGNQSpig, the Commander Guy certified that "Saudi Arabia is cooperating with efforts to combat international terrorism and that the proposed assistance will help facilitate that effort." This certification is required by law in order that American (military) "assistance" can be provided to the Kingdom Built on Sand.
Saudi Arabia may be a crucial source of oil to the US and the world generally. Its bases may be important or at least useful to force projection efforts in the Gulf region. The dealing in oil and weapons may be a fat profit cow for assorted American businesses.
But, to call Saudi Arabia an ally in the so-called Global War on Terrorism is factually incorrect. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Stuart Levey, said barely more than a month ago that the Kingdom is delict in stopping or aiding in the stopping of financial assistance to terrorism. That's not the least of it.
Despite the issuance of a fatwa by the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia prohibiting subjects of the Kingdom from leaving the country in order to pursue jihad, Wahhabism, the predominent sect of Saudi Arabia, remains the basis of Islamism. Bluntly put, this means that without a significant shift in the basic doctrine of Wahhabism, there is little chance of defeating Islamism and its armed expression Jihadism.
The Saudi government sponsors madrassas and mosques as well as websites that spread the anti-Western views and beliefs of Wahhabism. This is akin to the actions of the Communist International during the period prior to World War II. Wahhabist doctrine lays the foundations for both the Islamist view of the global caliphate under sharia and violent jihad as the necessary means of accomplishing this goal.
Unless and until the Saudi regime at the very least ceases funding, sponsoring, and extending its network of mosques and madrassas in the United States and throughout the world, there is no chance of its acting as an "ally" in the Global War on Terrorism or, to err on the side of accuracy, the Second Cold War against Islamism/Jihadism. If the Kingdom were to be a genuine ally in the current struggle it would not only stop the madrassa-mosque attack but would also cooperate fully and wholeheartedly in strangling the flow of money to the Islamist/Jihadist groups.
The probability of the Saudi regime doing this of its own volition is low.
The reason?
Easy. History. More particularly the historical tie between Wahhibism and the House of Saud. As detailed in an earlier post, the Saudi regime and the Wahhabist sect are joined at the hip and head. One cannot survive without the other.
Or, to err on the side of accuracy, the House of Saud cannot survive for long without the staunch support of the Wahhibists. The converse may not be true.
There is little doubt that many within the Wahhabist structure believe that their brand of Islam can not only survive but would prosper if the House of Saud crumbled back into the waste of dunes from which it emerged.
There are a number of indicators to back this belief. The Geek is sure that the Saudi government is not so astigmatic as to not have noticed them. As a result the Riyadh regime is limited in what it can do without unacceptable risk to itself.
The intelligence and diplomatic structures of the US are aware of this unpleasant reality. The information must have been passed up the chain of command. All the way to the Commander Guy.
Assuming a modest degree of human intelligence, the current administration should have concluded that the realities on the ground in Saudi Arabia put limits on what we could expect in terms of cooperation against Islamists/Jihadists. Those limits are real.
Those limits do not require that we overly extend ourselves to stroke the Kingdom. They do not, for example, require that we sell gigabucks worth of state-of-the-art military equipment to the Saudis. Whatever threat may be presented to the other Gulf states by Iran either today or in the next few years does not necessitate selling massive amounts of weaponry, support systems, and associated command, control, communications, and intelligence equipment to a government which may collapse before the goodies have been uncrated.
Without a real requirement for the weaponry, there is no need for the certification offered by the Commander Guy today. The matter could be allowed to drift, benignly neglected, in the stratosphere of diplomatic exchanges.
Certification is not time sensitive. Time can and should be allowed to pass. Time needs to pass in order that the Saudi government might have the opportunity to think its way through its current dilemma. Time is needed for the Saudi leaders to (perhaps and hopefully) bring more of the Wahhabist elite to realise that shifting doctrinal emphasis is in everyone's better interests.
The Saudi regime could use the time to convince the Wahhabists that without the Kingdom's money as megaphone, the doctrine of Wahhabism would still be nothing more than the visions of a wasteland preacher. They might remind the clerics that the US and the West have limits. Limits that are crossed only at peril as the admittedly lurching and shortlived, but massive oil conservation efforts following the "oil shocks" of the Seventies demonstrated. Perhaps the regime could use some time to educate the clerics about the realities of international trade, finance and economics generally as well as the central role played by the US in all of these.
Time (and some backroom American efforts) could work effective changes on Wahhabist doctrine in a few small, but critical ways. Thanks to the Decider's haste to certify there is now no time available. Bottom lines rank higher in the estimate of the neocon ninnies than time lines.
By rushing to sign an unnecessary and fact-shattering certification, the Decider has preempted the better interests of the US and its actual allies to favor the bottom line concerns of assorted corporations and stroke the ego of a King and his surrounding posse of princes whose personal and national interests show only the slightest signs of coinciding with ours.
While this blunder in no way ranks with the invasion of Iraq, it is bad enough. It is unnecessary, gratuitous. Worse, its long term effects may be as bad--or worse--than the dash to Baghdad. That will be for future historians to decide.
According to AFP http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jKQEeNk7Rr6Kn-3dxc6klGNQSpig, the Commander Guy certified that "Saudi Arabia is cooperating with efforts to combat international terrorism and that the proposed assistance will help facilitate that effort." This certification is required by law in order that American (military) "assistance" can be provided to the Kingdom Built on Sand.
Saudi Arabia may be a crucial source of oil to the US and the world generally. Its bases may be important or at least useful to force projection efforts in the Gulf region. The dealing in oil and weapons may be a fat profit cow for assorted American businesses.
But, to call Saudi Arabia an ally in the so-called Global War on Terrorism is factually incorrect. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Stuart Levey, said barely more than a month ago that the Kingdom is delict in stopping or aiding in the stopping of financial assistance to terrorism. That's not the least of it.
Despite the issuance of a fatwa by the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia prohibiting subjects of the Kingdom from leaving the country in order to pursue jihad, Wahhabism, the predominent sect of Saudi Arabia, remains the basis of Islamism. Bluntly put, this means that without a significant shift in the basic doctrine of Wahhabism, there is little chance of defeating Islamism and its armed expression Jihadism.
The Saudi government sponsors madrassas and mosques as well as websites that spread the anti-Western views and beliefs of Wahhabism. This is akin to the actions of the Communist International during the period prior to World War II. Wahhabist doctrine lays the foundations for both the Islamist view of the global caliphate under sharia and violent jihad as the necessary means of accomplishing this goal.
Unless and until the Saudi regime at the very least ceases funding, sponsoring, and extending its network of mosques and madrassas in the United States and throughout the world, there is no chance of its acting as an "ally" in the Global War on Terrorism or, to err on the side of accuracy, the Second Cold War against Islamism/Jihadism. If the Kingdom were to be a genuine ally in the current struggle it would not only stop the madrassa-mosque attack but would also cooperate fully and wholeheartedly in strangling the flow of money to the Islamist/Jihadist groups.
The probability of the Saudi regime doing this of its own volition is low.
The reason?
Easy. History. More particularly the historical tie between Wahhibism and the House of Saud. As detailed in an earlier post, the Saudi regime and the Wahhabist sect are joined at the hip and head. One cannot survive without the other.
Or, to err on the side of accuracy, the House of Saud cannot survive for long without the staunch support of the Wahhibists. The converse may not be true.
There is little doubt that many within the Wahhabist structure believe that their brand of Islam can not only survive but would prosper if the House of Saud crumbled back into the waste of dunes from which it emerged.
There are a number of indicators to back this belief. The Geek is sure that the Saudi government is not so astigmatic as to not have noticed them. As a result the Riyadh regime is limited in what it can do without unacceptable risk to itself.
The intelligence and diplomatic structures of the US are aware of this unpleasant reality. The information must have been passed up the chain of command. All the way to the Commander Guy.
Assuming a modest degree of human intelligence, the current administration should have concluded that the realities on the ground in Saudi Arabia put limits on what we could expect in terms of cooperation against Islamists/Jihadists. Those limits are real.
Those limits do not require that we overly extend ourselves to stroke the Kingdom. They do not, for example, require that we sell gigabucks worth of state-of-the-art military equipment to the Saudis. Whatever threat may be presented to the other Gulf states by Iran either today or in the next few years does not necessitate selling massive amounts of weaponry, support systems, and associated command, control, communications, and intelligence equipment to a government which may collapse before the goodies have been uncrated.
Without a real requirement for the weaponry, there is no need for the certification offered by the Commander Guy today. The matter could be allowed to drift, benignly neglected, in the stratosphere of diplomatic exchanges.
Certification is not time sensitive. Time can and should be allowed to pass. Time needs to pass in order that the Saudi government might have the opportunity to think its way through its current dilemma. Time is needed for the Saudi leaders to (perhaps and hopefully) bring more of the Wahhabist elite to realise that shifting doctrinal emphasis is in everyone's better interests.
The Saudi regime could use the time to convince the Wahhabists that without the Kingdom's money as megaphone, the doctrine of Wahhabism would still be nothing more than the visions of a wasteland preacher. They might remind the clerics that the US and the West have limits. Limits that are crossed only at peril as the admittedly lurching and shortlived, but massive oil conservation efforts following the "oil shocks" of the Seventies demonstrated. Perhaps the regime could use some time to educate the clerics about the realities of international trade, finance and economics generally as well as the central role played by the US in all of these.
Time (and some backroom American efforts) could work effective changes on Wahhabist doctrine in a few small, but critical ways. Thanks to the Decider's haste to certify there is now no time available. Bottom lines rank higher in the estimate of the neocon ninnies than time lines.
By rushing to sign an unnecessary and fact-shattering certification, the Decider has preempted the better interests of the US and its actual allies to favor the bottom line concerns of assorted corporations and stroke the ego of a King and his surrounding posse of princes whose personal and national interests show only the slightest signs of coinciding with ours.
While this blunder in no way ranks with the invasion of Iraq, it is bad enough. It is unnecessary, gratuitous. Worse, its long term effects may be as bad--or worse--than the dash to Baghdad. That will be for future historians to decide.
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