Thinking The Unthinkable--Speaking the Unspeakable

The Geek has an admission. Norman Podhoeritz scares the pippin, doublet, and hose off of him. The seventy-seven year old granddad of the neocon ninnies of the current administration as well as the hyper-hawks surrounding Rudy Giuliani is in full chest-beating, testosterone fury over Iran.

According to the UK's Telegraph on-line, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/27/wbomb127.xml, Podhoeritz "thinks the unthinkable and speaks the unspeakable." That's sure nice. And, to some extent useful.

Of course the neocon clan elder is far from the only person to do just that. Years ago, Herman Khan, the founder of the Hudson Institute, wrote and spoke at length about nuclear war. He even titled a book, Thinking the Unthinkable. It gave the few folks who read it the shivers--and reasons to think harder and better about the taboo-in-polite-circles topic of nuclear war and the potential reality of mutually assured destruction.

In a very small way, the Geek has done the same in past years, challenging policy makers and executors alike to realise just how easy it is not to win in counterinsurgencies and akin stability operations. Like the (un)jolly fatman of the Hudson Institute, the Geek's goal was to get people to think deeper and better about the unique nature of a particular type of war.

That goal, it appears to the Geek, is not uppermost in Podhoeritz' mind--if it exists at any level there.

At some point decades ago, Mr Podhoeritz had an epiphany concerning his opposition to the Vietnam War which resulted in a lucidly argued mea culpa that still resides on the Geek's bookshelves. From that moment on, the gentleman under consideration became a neo-conservative. One of the most warlike coloration.

Therein lies the tragedy.

Mr Podhoeritz became one of those whom Eric Hoffer described more than fifty years ago with startling and fear-provoking clarity. The True Believer.

True Believers are very dangerous people. History shows that. So do recent events. Osama bin Laden is a True Believer. So were those who flew the passenger filled cruise missiles into the Pentagon and Twin Towers.

True Believers search for any facts, the slightest hint of a factoid even, which seem to support their belief and its expressions. All else is disregarded as heresy at best, counterfactual at worst.

As a result Mr Podhoeritz places an emphasis, an emphasis beyond all rational calculation, upon the necessity to execute massive air attacks using both manned and unmanned platforms upon Iranian targets. While Mr Podhoeritz might be willing to settle for striking the nuclear facilities, the Geek is convinced that his real desire is the complete obliteration of Iran as a functioning polity, economy, and society.

Mr Podhoeritz blithely assumes that the strikes could be delivered quickly, without any warning, and would be effective. He is probably correct in the first two portions of his assumption.

The further consequences of the action apparently are of no interest to him. Yet it is precisely in these that the dangers for us and the rest of the world exist.

As Iraq, Afghanistan, and a host of previous wars show clearly, Clausewitz was right: No plan survives first contact with the enemy.

In his carefree attitude to the "day after" Mr Podhoeritz is one with the neocon ninnies who gave no realistic thought to what would happen after we deposed Saddam in Iraq or Sheik Omar in Afghanistan. In this fantasyland approach to war planning and fighting, Mr Podhoeritz, Vice-President Cheney, former SecDef Rumsfeld, and the deep thinking crew in the Pentagon almost equal the brain dead Adolph Hitler with his totally unnecessary and utterly counterproductive declaration of war on the US in December 1941.

The True Believer world view of Mr Podhoeritz and his ilk as well as their demonstrated influence in the current administration is what has increasingly alienated, not to say scared the hell out of, the European governments who initially took our part in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. They are what has given rise to the increasingly oppositional posture of Vladimir Putin and the mandarinate in China.

By now even the Israeli government and public ought to be getting nervous over the impact of the Podhoeritz type True Believers. In the (hopefully remote) eventuality that the US gives reality to Mr Podhoeritz's unthinkable thoughts and unspeakable words, Israel will be in the impact zone. There is no way that any conceivable US air campaign will so defang or so demoralize the Iranian regime and those of similar mind that there will be no response.

The response is (quite) likely to make 9/11 and its aftermaths look like a flower power gathering out of the Sixties. The full menu of options available to the survivors in Tehran is extensive.

Mr Podhoeritz has written of Islamofacism and the World War IV between the Islamists and the West. The Geek found some merit in some of the man's arguments.

Call it World War IV or the Second Cold War, it doesn't matter. But, a firm grip must be kept on the fundamental reality that Cold Wars are not won by air strikes. They are won by a firm line, backed by the willingness to use minimal appropriate force for narrowly conceived goals over time. They are won not by bluster and bombs but by political will maintained over generations if need be.

Mr Podhoeritz, try thinking about this unthinkable. Cold Wars are won by outlasting the enemy, by outlasting his political will, by showing over time that the world view he espouses is inferior to yours. We won the last cold war this way. We won by allowing him to lose faith in his god.

That may not be emotionally satisfying to a True Believer. It is however intellectually warming to a realpolitiker.

Republican Wannabes Pump (Verbal) Iron on Iran

The chronically money losing right wing news outlet of the Reverend Moon ought to know what the Republican candidates are saying about foreign affairs. So the Geek assumes that the quotes presented in a recent article are correct. Feel free to check them at the Washington Times online http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071017/NATION/110170091/1001.

The overall impression given of the several Republicans on hand for at a conflab of the Jewish Republican Coalition is one of vapid chest pounding on Iran and, with one very surprising exception, a gripless understanding of the nature of the adversary facing us and the West today and into the future.

A few years back when the Geek lived in Texas he was amused by the race for governor. It seemed as if every candidate was trying to prove that he (or she) could tie a hangman's knot quicker and tighter than the rest of the posse.

Now it appears to the Geek that the Republican field is actually engaged in try-out for the role of General George S. Patton. In the contest to be the best Patton imitation, Rudy Giuliani set the standard for the night when he said, "Iran has to understand that not only is the military on the table, it is in our hand." He added, "This is not just some far-flung idea that we might act militarily, but instead we are poised and ready to act."

Wow! That's tellin' 'em, Rudy!

As if it wasn't already obvious in Tehran and elsewhere around the world that the US had the capacity for air and missile strikes of an overwhelmingly destructive nature on very short notice. What we can't do and won't be able to do in the foreseeable future is occupy Iran on the ground.

Not that the ever-so-decisive former Big Apple Mayor would notice the fine distinction between obliterating a country's physical infrastructure and using military force to bring about a better state of peace. No. That would take thought.

And, thought seems to be somewhat foreign to Hizzoner's approach to life. He prefers action. In a foot-stomping, crowd-pleasing peroration, Giuliani reminded the folks that he didn't have to do any thinking before tossing Yasser Arafat out of a UN sponsored concert.

Nearly breaking his arm patting himself on the back, the BAM commented, "I didn't hesitate like Hillary Clinton hesitates to answer questions on what she's going to do about Iran. I didn't seek to negotiate with him, like Barack Obama would do or says he'd do with these people. I just made a decision. See, I lead. That's what a leader is about."

That's right, Mr Giuliani. Make a decision, whatever feels good--just do it! Great concept when the leader is dealing with war and peace, lives and deaths. But, if it was good enough for the current administration, it should be good enough for the future.

Making reference to the (in)famous eye reading capacity of George W. Bush, John McCain sagely observed that when he looked into Vladimir Putin's eyes he saw the letters K,G and B. What a surprise! The Geek hadn't realised that Putin's long service to the sword and shield of the revolution had ever been a secret.

McCain opined that it was "time we got a little tough" with the lads in the Kremlin. That must have been another crowd pleasing line. It is also gripless.

As has been noted previously in this blog, Russia needs not toughness (whatever that might mean) but treatment by the US as if Russia remained the same Great Power it was back when the Soviet Union was still a going concern. The current administration has metaphorically at least given the back of its hand to the Russians while simultaneously needing Russian cooperation on significant issues--such as Iran.

The result of this combination of arrogance and realism has resulted in Russia hanging firm on the question of the defensive missile system scheduled for deployment in former WarPact nations. Among other consequences of the current administration's gripless approach to Russia, which the Arizona senator apparently believes has not been "tough" enough, is a revitalization of old Cold War practices such as Bear and Bison bomber flights on the periphery of NATO and US outposts and sea frontiers.

Oh, don't overlook the relative diplomatic successes enjoyed by Vladimir Putin in Iran and with the Caspian Sea countries. How will John McCain's call for getting a "little tough" with the Kremlin offset these?

Now for the surprise of the evening.

Fred Thompson shocked the Geek by echoing Mitt Romney's line. The politician turned actor turned politician said, "We need the active involvement of moderate Muslims and religious leaders to wrest back their faith, and indeed their peoples, from this cult of death."

Thompson, unlike the decisive Giuliani or the straight, tough talking McCain, seems to have a grip on the nature of today's adversary. It is Islamism/Jihadism. Pure and simple.

It might be going too far to infer that Thompson or Romney realise that Iran is both a symptom and a part of the problem, but not the totality of the challenge facing us now and tomorrow. At the least Thompson recognises that Muslims who reject the ideology of Islamism are allied with the West in the struggle.

For this, the former senator deserves a thumbs-up. It is far more difficult and far less crowd pleasing to focus on the battle of ideas and values than to spew verbal missiles and self-congratulations.

The Second Cold War like the First will be a long, hard slog. Success requires a firm understanding of the nature of the adversary. It requires knowing our strengths and weaknesses as well as those of our allies. It requires patience not heroic words. It requires action based on thought.

The United States, the world for that matter, does not need a gutsy Patton type. That would be as dangerous over time as a fluttering Hamlet clone who must dither over every choice, every option. Nor would we and the world benefit from having a wide-eyed sort who sees the world as filled with friends he hasn't met yet.

Looking at the Republicans assembled the other night and considering the Democrats line-up, the Geek can't help scratching his head and wondering just where will we find the person we really need for the upcoming years.