Take The "Group Of Ten" Seriously

Those in the media, politics, or academia who portray the recently arrested bunch of Russian spies as being a sort of The Pink Panther Meets James Bond escapade of no real moment are simply demonstrating both a lack of knowledge of the ways of the deep penetration asset and the past behavior of Russian (in the Soviet guise) espionage. The fact that not one classified document has been shown to have been passed by any of the agents to the controllers at Center is a tribute to the efficiency of the FBI and not a damnation of the spies as a collection of failed wannabes.

The most important word in the lexicon of espionage is "patience." Time, a very great deal of time, is necessary to install an illegal. It takes years to establish a cover identity. It takes even more years to maneuver the spy to a point where that individual has access to important information.

Some corners may be cut, some time saved, when a hostile service can recruit an agent-in-place. The agent-in-place was very much a feature of Soviet espionage during the Thirties and Forties when the supply of homegrown Communist ideologues provided ready recruiting and easy placement in sensitive areas. Even in those salad days when Leftists were to be found in every New Deal agency and most of the new bureaucracies established in the pressure of war, the Soviets took time, were willing to see months, even years pass fallow of high level catch.

Importantly, even when ideologically motivated homegrown agents were plentiful and fruitful in their productivity, the Soviets backstopped these individuals with elaborate networks of long resident illegal penetration agents. Having your own person--a genuine Russian with all that implied and implies--assured a higher likelihood of higher quality catch as well as a greater willingness to roll with the punches rather than roll over if caught by the imperialist camp's counterintelligence services.

It must also be understood that often the desired catch is not to be found in a secret document, a confidential memo, a classified operational plan. Often the best catch is found at insider social functions, at think tank sponsored conferences, at inside-the-Beltway cocktail get togethers. A species of very useful information is that of human foibles, human failings, who-is-sleeping-with-whom (both literally and metaphorically,) who is unhappy at work, feels unappreciated by the boss, who is willing to leak and what can they leak.

Social interactions also provide for the opportunity to informally but definitely affect policy as it is being formed. This setting provides for enormous personal leverage on the thinking which will someday fossilize into policy. So the agent of espionage can also serve as an agent of influence.

Historically, the Russians have prized both forms of agent equally. The Kremlin has long understood that it is even better to influence policy than it is to ferret out the policy from some Burn Before Reading archive. So, the well placed spy is a highly effective person-to-person diplomatic program. The effectiveness comes from the secret nature of the spy's true loyalties and affiliations.

Yes, it would have been more tidy if the Feeb could have let the Gang of Ten stay out and about awhile longer. It might have been more satisfying to the Bureau and the Department of Justice. There must have been excellent reasons to run the take-down earlier than would have been optimum.

The reason is implicit in the fate of Agent Number Eleven, the spy who got away. This man, alleged to have been the network's paymaster, had already beat feet when the pop went down. Arrested in Cyprus, the man was let out on minimum bail by an obliging magistrate whereupon he sought a more hospitable climate--something not hard to accomplish on the divided island.

It is probable that the whole group was in the process of exfiltrating the US at the time of the arrests. Somehow, the FBI counterintelligence operation had been blown after years of successful running.

At that point the Bureau had only two options. One was to let the boys and girls head back to Russia with a heap of "lessons learned" to pass on to Center. The other was to drop the dime on them and hope that at least one weak link would break under the threat of the (relatively) mild penalties for failing to register as a foreign agent and money laundering so as to provide the counterintelligence shop useful information on Russian methods.

The Feebies made the right choice. Now, the challenge is simply to see if the self-defined elite of American politics, media, and academia can face up to the reality of Russian espionage. They would be well advised to do so as the Russians are not going to suddenly end their love affair with doing things covertly.

Way To Go, Center!

Looks like the Kremlin forgot to push its "reset" button. Not that Vladimir Putin or Dimitri Medvevdev can be held personally responsible. These guys have been too busy since coming to power five years ago to review the file covering espionage operations started back in the days when Bill Clinton was making amorous with White House interns.

The ten Russians arrested in the US along with an eleventh reportedly picked up in Cyprus were popped as the FBI finally wrapped up an investigation which started even as the Republicans in the House of Representatives were protecting American morality by impeaching the president. The timing of the Feebs' move is open to question.

Not even the most pessimistic assessment of the long and winding road of Russian plotting gives any hint that the Moscow Moles were anywhere near any key to any executive lavatory. The snippets of documents filed by the Department of Justice (at least as quoted in the several media accounts) make for fun reading by devotees of the spy versus spy genre but show no real evidence of any honest-to-gosh, bottled in bond, US government secrets.

On the US side the nearly twenty year caper complete with codes and cyphers, false identities, dead drops and brush passes to say nothing of wiretaps, surveillance teams, black bag jobs, and all the other features of a trade craft based spy yarn is portrayed as a major success against a crafty, dedicated, and omnipresent adversary. A reminder, according to at least one old time Soviet secret agent, of the worse days of Cold War excess.

The Russian response has been restrained--at least by Kremlin standards of the past. The Lads in the (New) Kremlin allow as how the people arrested may have been Russian nationals but will not go so far as to concede that their purposes in traveling under false names may have been nefarious in the slightest. Vladimir (The Good Czar) Putin did go a bit ballistic, averring that the "US police had gone out of control" in comments to visiting Bill Clinton.

Vlad Of The Bare Chest did seem more concerned over the timing of the Department of Justice action and its possible aftershocks than he did the slight problem of Russians being caught in rather flagrant disregard of normal protocol. At first the Russian Foreign Ministry took much the same line, noting that the episode should be viewed in the context of the improving relations between Russia and the US.

However, the Foreign Ministry did harden its position a few hours later. The new, improved narrative took the view that the arrests must be seen as an attempt by unnamed but certainly sinister forces to erode the new harmony between the Men in the Kremlin and the Guy in the Oval. There were dark ruminations about similar incidents in the past which always, in the Foreign Ministry's eyes, took place during times of improving relations. The parallel was obvious; by the timing of the arrests and the relative lack of harm done the US, someone in the US government was doing his evil best to toss a spanner in the works.

The timing was a bit odd, considering that only a few days earlier, President Obama had been making ever-so-nice with Dimitri Medvedev. Both men had toasted the successful pushing of assorted "reset" buttons. The Nice Young Man Of The People From Chicago took his counterpart out to a nearby and apparently renowned throughout the world hamburger joint for a quick bite of an appropriately populist food. Smiles all around.

The Russians have been playing the espionage game against the US without pause during and after the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Despite changes in name, alterations in the form of government, reduction in geographic extent, erosion of military, economic, and diplomatic power, the game went on. Changes in Russia of a more positive nature since the emergence of Putin and his protegee, Medvedev, would or have served to change the nature and character of the game.

The Russians have a long history of using espionage as a preferred tool of state. Quite often, regardless of the nature or the regime, czar, commissar, or president, the Russians have used espionage to their advantage. The directors of FBI, CIA, and the Office of National Intelligence have all stated on the public record that Russian espionage had continued year after year at or above the level achieved during the Cold War. No one familiar with the spy-versus-spy scene has found a need to dissent from this appreciation.

It has been fashionable for some years within the ever-so-progressive circles of the American hoi olligoi to poo-poo the assessments offered by the US intelligence community regarding the unchanging nature of the Russian love of espionage or its targeting of the US as the "main enemy" as so much Cold War alarmist rhetoric spewed in support of ever greater budgets. It never crossed the closed minds of the "progressives" that maybe, just maybe, the professionals in the wild and wacky world of espionage might possibly know what they were talking about.

The arrests and their high profile juxtaposition with the heady, dare one write, "giddy," meeting of Obama with Medvedev may serve as a healthy corrective for all those in government as well as outside that the Russians play a very hardball game in pursuing national interest. The mere fact that the Russian clandestine service was willing to invest quite a few years in establishing the bona fides of their agents, quite a few patient years of moving their pawns into potential positions of access to critical information found in venues outside of the official agencies, shows a deep commitment to the art and craft of espionage. The fact that the controllers back at Center were content to wait more years before having any real chance of a payoff underscores both the commitment to and high appreciation for the results of spying.

Regardless of what any member of the American elite might wish, Russia is not and will never be an American "friend." This is true not because the Russian government is necessarily and automatically hostile to the US. Rather it is the result of the realistic and realpolitck nature of the Russian pursuit of national interest. The Russians understand that friendship exists only between people, individuals. It does not exist, cannot exist, between states.

It was an English Foreign Secretary who once observed that states have neither lasting friends nor lasting enemies, only lasting interests. The Russians are in tandem with this concept.

Look at it this way. Just because the Russians spy on us doesn't mean they don't like us. Heck, it's only business, nothing personal.

It's Official! China is Espionage Central

The Geek always gets a warm glow when an American governmental body publicly admits something that has been known sub rosa for a long, long time. Just today, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a bi-partisan group created to advise Congress on matters involving US relations with the Global Gorilla on the far side of the Pacific, issued a report acknowledging among other things that the Chinese government is hoisting every bit of data it can hack from American businesses including defense contractors. It has also been doing its best to swipe everything that isn't virtually nailed down from the Pentagon.

Holy shrimp egg rolls, Caped Crusader!

Say it ain't so! Tell us that really the Chinese are what President Bill Clinton promised they would become when he opened the door to nearly unimpeded trade with the Mandarins of Beijing. Doubters such as the Geek were assured that a vast and fast growing web of commercial ties between ourselves and the Chinese would not only benefit the American consumer through lower prices but would guarantee peace and prosperity globally by bringing China fully into the world wide market.

Yeah. Right.

Then there is president-elect Obama. Unless he has taken a firm grip on reality in recent weeks, his view of China is every bit as out-to-lunch as Bill Clinton's. When campaigning, Obama held that "China is on the rise." (With that the Geek is in full agreement.)

The Nice Young Man From Chicago went on to observe that "China is neither a friend nor an enemy. It is a competitor. (With that the Geek is in full disagreement.)

While it is true that all countries routinely do a spot or two of espionage against all other nations including "friends," China's boisterous efforts are far over the edge. The wholesale pilferage both accomplished and attempted in no way comports itself with the usual range of espionage conducted between "friends" or even "rivals." No. China's gargantuan appetite for stolen information, as well as the uses to which the proceeds have been placed, takes it out of the "rivalry" category and places it well in the space marked "hostile."

As the Commission states, the recent Chinese efforts in military modernization and space oriented activities are both "impressive" and "disturbing." When coupled with statements of military doctrine coming from Chinese defense intellectuals in the past couple of years regarding the centrality of aerospace and information warfare, the very rapid increase of Chinese capacities in these areas is beyond being merely "disturbing." They have reached the level of "alarming" or even "scary."

There has been little doubt for years that the Chinese seek regional hegemonic status at the least. Beyond that, the Mandarins of the Forbidden City want to limit the capacity and will of the US to operate freely not only in Asia but globally. The Commission's report did properly appreciate the first, more limited goal. It did not directly address the second.

The foreign policy players of the Clinton administration apparently were so blinded by the light of globalization, of free movement of goods and capital, that they never considered what China might do with the money and technology access it acquired from the United States. Ideology overwhelmed prudence.

Now we face the consequences. Consider just a couple of significant bits of data. One is military and the other is financial. The military note: Chinese air defenses are improving at such a significant rate that within a very short time no aircraft in the world other than the American B-2 and F-22 will be able to penetrate their airspace without unacceptable losses. The financial consideration: China holds (as of the end of September) nearly six hundred billion dollars in US T-bonds--the largest single holding in the world.

There are other significant pieces of the Chinese puzzle which can be adduced as well, but to do so would only depress the Geek. So, for the moment we'll depart this unpleasant subject.

Apologists for a "go slow and talk soft" policy with respect to China are eager to underscore the obvious--that China holds a veto in the UN Security Council. Well, that's something that never crossed the Geek's mind and he is utterly terrified at the possibility that China might resort to the (dare he write the word?) Veto. You mean, actually vote nyet! on something the US would like to see passed? Oh! Perish the thought!

Apologists would also like those sceptical of Chinese good intentions to remember that the US needs the cooperation of Beijing on critical matters such as the North Korean and Iranian nuclear weapons threat. Well, the cooperation of the Chinese might be nice, but it is not necessary, nor would it be sufficient to deal with these two challenges or nuclear proliferation generally, or terrorism, or any other matter.

As the Geek has posited in previous posts, the Chinese need us (or at least our cash and our technology) more than we need them. He has also suggested that a "work-to-rules" treatment of Chinese imports might send a message which would be unsubtle enough to be understood in the deepest reaches of the Forbidden City. The FDA has recently adopted this approach regarding imports containing milk or milk derived components. Finally, the FDA has done something useful!

The mood music players of the MSM have sought to assuage the doubts of people such as the Geek by insisting that President Obama will "govern from the center." The mooting of numerous Clinton Administration retreads is a guarantee that the Obama Administration will be staffed by experienced practical people with a sound understanding of how Washington and the world work.

Sure. Right.

The Geek is much relieved. It is so comforting to be told that the same gripless bunch who handed the keys to the vault and the store alike to the Chinese are now going to be in charge of dealing with the consequences.

Ah, with this in mind, the Geek can sleep the sleep of the saved.

At Last! The Pentagon Comes Clean--Sort Of.

Not about Iraq, if that was what you were hoping. Come on, bucko, get a grip.

For the Pentagon to come clean about the Iraq invasion would require admitting that former SecDef Rumsfield was an overbearing putz with the brain power of a gnat and the ambition of Napoleon on steroids who surrounded himself with yes-sir-boss, neo-con nincompoops. It would also require acknowledging that the senior American commanders were severely challenged in the areas of intellectual and moral courage.

Finally, were the Pentagon to spill the truth, the whole truth, it would have to confess what the Geek already knew--the US military only wants to fight conventional wars. The US military absolutely loathes the very idea of insurgency, let alone insurgency where terrorism is the major tactic.

So, if the lads in the Five Sided Wigwam by the shores of the Po-To-Mic aren't 'fessing up about Iraq, what's the hoo-hoo?

China. Yup, the inevitable "highly placed," "usually well-informed," "requested anonymity" sources at the Pentagon have sidled up to the Financial Times and, more or less, sort of, confirmed what has been common knowledge in the sub-basements of the military, diplomatic, and intelligence communities for years.

The Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA) has been and is mounting a concerted, heavy attack upon the computer systems of the US military, defense contractors, and other targets associated with the American national security establishment.

Wow! Tell me it ain't true. Please somebody tell me that the Peoples' Republic of China, toymaker to the world, economic miracle of the 21st Century, holder of more than a trillion dollars of foreign exchange, isn't cyber-attacking the US. Please, tell me that China isn't really hostile to us.

The Geek would like to believe what Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and any number of other leaders, movers, and shakers have affirmed: that China is a member in good standing of the world community, that it has no ambitions to either regional hegemony or to limit American freedom of global action.

That's a nice belief, this vision of China-the-peaceful. But, it's a belief for fantasy land, not the real world. The Geek will accept it when he looks out and sees a unicorn in the canyon or whales gliding in the thermals over the mountains.

The PRC is in hot pursuit of two long-term political goals. One is regional hegemony. The other is the ability to limit the freedom of US response to Chinese actions even if and when those ambitions extend beyond the region.

Hegemony requires a mixture of hard power features. The Chinese mandarinate knows this. The central hard power components have to be economic and military. The long celebrated restoration of capitalism to China has provided the first of these prerequisites.

The PLA has been part of the economic transformation. Twenty years ago it dropped the long obsolete formulations of Mao and shook off the old "peasant guerrilla army" costume in a search for modern capacities. At first, the PLA was split into two parts. One part was oriented to the task of fighting wars whether external or internal. The other was set to work in factories and fields to support the war fighters.

In a way not unlike the SS in Germany or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, industries and businesses relevant to war fighting became integral parts of the PLA. This dynamic is not at all similar to the (in)famous "military-industrial complex" in the US. The PLA method assures an effective meshing of technological capabilities, military requirements, and economic realities.

Unlike the military in countries such as the US or the UK, where the bureaucrats of the budget and "peace dividend" lovers among the wallahs in Congress or Parliament demand new military equipment cost nearly nothing, work without repairs for decades and run on air, the PLA, thanks to its own industrial empire, not only makes what it needs but makes the money necessary to make what it needs.

The results are evident in the latest run of PLA modernization and expansion. Recall that the new SecDef, Gates, expressed anxiety regarding the goals and intentions behind this expansion, which obviously far exceeds any legitimate defensive requirements.

Of the two requirements for seeking regional hegemony, the Chinese nearly have both. They have the economic resources. They are getting the necessary muscle.

In order to achieve the goal of regional hegemony, the Chinese need diplomatic maneuvering room. This requires limiting American freedom to respond let alone to initiate.

In a post entitled, "Shop at Walmart. Help the Enemy," the Geek noted one avenue open to the Chinese was to threaten the US economy by selling off some of its vast horde of dollar denominated foreign currency reserves, which include US Treasury Notes and Bills. This course of action, the Geek observed, would be risky since the blowback to Chinese economic interest and stability would be difficult if not impossible to predict accurately.

There is another, far less risky avenue by which US initiatives and responses can be either limited or countered. This means is simply strategic, political, and technological intelligence.

All countries with an eye on the winds of reality and the technical competence either read or attempt to read all other countries' mail.

Nearly seventy-five years ago the US set the standard during and before the Washington Naval Arms Limitation Talks, which resulted in freezing the Japanese to a position of inferiority compared to the US and UK. We did it by breaking the Japanese diplomatic code.

The hidden hand propelling the eventual Allied victory over Germany and Japan was the ability of the US and the UK to "read" the encoded and enciphered communications of their common enemies. Much of the course of the Cold War was dictated by the relative ability of the two sides to "break" each other's "book" through espionage or analysis.

For nearly a generation now, the Chinese have focused intense, sustained, and growing effort on breaking the cyber systems of the US and other Western countries. The actions of brigades of bright, well trained, and dedicated PLA hackers have complemented the efforts of the PRC's more conventional espionage activities.

"Cybernage" is an add-on to espionage. The Chinese are skilled at classic espionage. They have a significant cadre of native born and overseas born Chinese that have been deployed effectively against American and other targets as recently acknowledged by the FBI. The coordinated 24/7 hacker attacks come in tandem with those of the dudes in trench coat and pulled down hat.

It is true that "friends" spy on "friends." The famed case of Jonathan Pollard is proof of that. Even close allies such as the US and UK would be amiss if they did not take the odd dekko at each other's mail.

However, coordinated cybernage and espionage conducted at the intensity of the Chinese effort for the length of time the Chinese have been at it is the hallmark of hostility.

Get a grip on this. The PRC hacker attacks aren't a random or now and then effort. They are not the result of some overly zealous underling running out of control. They are hostile acts by a hostile power.

A few weeks ago when the PRC was caught sending dangerous products including food to the US and Europe, the lads in Beijing screamed, "Cold War mentality!" and similar shouts of outrage.

That's what the PRC's Foreign ministry spokesperson said when faced with the US acknowledgement that the PLA had been responsible for last spring's cracking of a non-secure portion of the Pentagon's email system.

Coincidence?

Make up your own mind.