I Wannabe A "Martyr"

The Pakistani Interior Minister has confirmed the long running buzz that Hakimullah Mehsud had joined his predecessor Baitullah Mehsud in Paradise courtesy of an American Predator strike. Almost immediately Taliban in Pakistan announced a new entry in the I-Wannabe-A-Martyr sweepstakes. The new guy is Noor Jamal who goes by the moniker, "Mullah Toofan".

"Mullah Toofan" is a very bad guy whose previous claims to fame have been based on his video performances in the roll of whip wielding thug and Decapitator First Class. His able right arm and skills with sword and knife have made him a feared figure among the Taliban's Mighty Warriors of Allah. His oratorical skills are also of the requisite sort as he has made many mighty threats against both the infidel "Crusaders" and the assorted "apostates" of Pakistan. While he has not yet reached the rarefied levels of Osama bin Laden as an analyst of American culpability in "global warming," he is very good at demanding death to Americans, Westerners, and indigenous perverting backsliders from Islam (as he understands the religion.)

With the official job title of "acting" capo d' tutti capi, "Mullah Toofan" can put his skills of "killing humans as others kill chickens" (as one local villager reportedly described matters) to work on behalf of an armed group which has seen hard times of late. The Pakistani Army did kill a number of Taliban trigger pullers during their less than blitz-like campaigns in Swat and South Waziristan even if it has been reluctant to say the least to continue the move into the sanctuary zone of North Waziristan.

It is highly probable that the new guy will continue the policies of his two predecessors. This means Pakistan will have more suicide bombings, more mass killings, more attacks on even presumably secure, hard targets such as military and police installations. It also means that Taliban will continue to make itself increasingly detested within large segments of the local population. Whether in the FATA or the major cities of the country, the Taliban's willingness to kill has become not a strength but a potentially fatal weakness.

"Mullah Toofan" will also have to deal with the effects of Operation Moshtarak. The US Marines, British Army, and Afghan National Forces are moving in on the Taliban stronghold of Marjah in Helmand province. While the fight will be tough, the end result will see a goodly number of surviving Taliban fighters cross the border into "Mullah Toofan's" territory. Given the nature of Taliban in Pakistan's command and control system, logistics, and overall organizational perturbation, the influx of defeated guerrillas from Afghanistan will be a further cause of overall weakness.

The Pakistani Army and government have long been apprehensive regarding the proposed US/ISAF/ANF operations in Helmand as it would cause a massive flow of turban-topped, bearded Koran wavers into the FATA--particularly North Waziristan. Now that push-comes-to-shove time is upon them, the Pakistani leadership will have to decide whether or not to reconceptualize the cross border movement as an opportunity rather than a threat.

The very best time to land a heavy, perhaps fatal, blow on Taliban in Pakistan is one of confusion and disorder within Taliban ranks. The combination of ever-new senior commanders, loss of many experienced mid-level personnel, past pressure from the army of Pakistan, and the arrival of a mob of defeated (but not necessarily demoralized) Taliban gun slingers beating feet ahead of the "infidels" provides the best possible basis for neutralizing the Thugs For Mohammad as a military force.

If the Pakistani Army (and its government) can show a capacity for movement faster than that of a snail with a hernia and an offensive orientation transcending that of a rabbit, the next four to six weeks could see Taliban put on the ropes as an armed threat to Islamabad. Of course the capacity to move aggressively requires a political will to do so on the part of the government and army alike.

It is legitimate to doubt that sufficient will exists or will exist in the near-term. There are too many Islamists in both the government and army for effective political will aimed at the ending of Taliban in either Pakistan or Afghanistan to take root and flourish.

Along with the presence of Islamists and sympathizers with Islamism there is another factor enervating any effective Pakistani focus on Taliban. That factor is India. More properly it is the apparent inability of the Pakistani elite to get beyond India as the only "enemy" confronting the country. Or, to narrow the focus slightly, the problem is the willingness of many in the political and military elites of Pakistan to risk the continuation of the country in its present form in order to pursue a chimera--the conquest of Kashmir.

Irredentism is a risky basis for policy. More than a few countries in the West have discovered this truth over the years. The astigmatism shown by many individuals in Pakistan regarding Kashmir show that they have not profited by the final failure of irredentism where it has existed before.

Between Islamism and irredentism there is no real probability that Pakistan will take full--or any--advantage from the opportunities being handed them by American Predators and Operation Moshtarak. That, bucko, is the unfortunate truth about our "allies" in the war against al-Qaeda and Taliban.

Spinning Across The Line

The Iranians have made the decision to, "damn the West! Full speed ahead!" in their quest for the Really Big Mahdi Bomb.

As has been standard operating procedure with the mullahs and their men, the latest push has been covered in realms of rhetoric ranging from the dire need of "our patients" for radioisotopes from the aging US manufactured reactor to ever-so-sincere declarations that there is no incompatibility between enriching to twenty percent and the continuation of diplomatic conversations or negotiations or whatever.

Fer sure, dudes. Like you can't buy the isotopes elsewhere? Like the only place they are made is in your creaky old reactor? Get real!

And, there is no contradiction? Just what sort of hicks from the sticks do you blokes think we in the West are? You really believe that countries with the technological base and diplomatic experience the US/EU states possess don't see the fundamental contradiction?

There are several salient matters to be considered here.

The first is the Iranians do not have the capacity to actually fabricate the fuel rods for the reactor. The French do. Even the Argentinians can do the job. Not the Iranians.

Secondly, the hardest part of enriching to the ninety percent level necessary for a nuclear bomb comes at the beginning of the process. After hitting twenty percent it is, in a real way, all down hill. As few as 500 centrifuges of the type used by the Iranians could give the necessary highly enriched uranium in a matter of a couple or three months given twenty percent feedstock.

Outside of Iran is the looming reality that China will not support any new sanction regime. While the Russians are now making ugly noises over the Iranian lack of "sincerity," Vladimir Putin still gets much domestic mileage from opposing the US. The continued invocation of the US missile defense system as a roadblock to a new nuclear weapons reduction treaty is indication of this. The implication is that while China might not openly block a move at the Security Council backed by Russia, there is no certainty that Russia is in agreement with any new pressure plan.

Then, of course, it is more than a bit uncertain that any sanctions whatsoever, no matter how resolutely and completely enforced would have a positive outcome from the US/EU perspective. The Iranian government and military have shown themselves both resilient and dedicated to say nothing of creative in dealing with the past sanction regime(s).

Inside Iran the forces of government and opposition are focusing on the upcoming 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. It is possible that the "smashing blow" mentioned by the Supreme Leader will be directed against the opposition (Note: Pressure consolidates long before it fractures, particularly if the pressure is violently applied.) If so, that would be to the longer term advantage of the West.

But, before anyone gets too breathless with excited anticipation, it should be noted that the conditions inside Iran today do not run in parallel with the situation back in 1979. The opposition leadership is part of the Revolutionary generation, for example. Another consideration is that the working class has not joined the opposition. Thirty-one years ago it was the mass strikes rather than the street protests and bloodshed that cracked the regime wide open. (Admittedly it was the violence which caused President Carter to lose his tenuous grip on realpolitik regarding Iran.)

The Obama administration hopes for a new round of Security Council sponsored sanctions "within a few weeks." That is nice. However, it may be scarcely relevant.

If the Iranians can go ahead enriching to twenty percent without any meaningful as opposed to rhetorical consequences, the cone of options available to the US and the West will become severely limited. There will be essentially two left open: accept and accommodate a nuclear capable Iran or go to war.

It will be rather like July 1914 with one difference, one very critical difference to be sure. This time around one side most assuredly does not want to resort to war.

One can only hope that the mullahs of today and tomorrow and the days after are not in a great hurry to usher in the return of the Mahdi by pushing the new, Big Button in Tehran. Given the very strong eschatological (end of days or time beyond secular time or end days) thinking so rampant in Shia theological circles, it would not be prudent to bet the ranch on restraint being the primary Iranian governmental virtue.

Oh, well, as the ancient Chinese toast/curse has it, "May you live in interesting times."

We sure will be.

Push Comes To Shove Time For Taliban

Reversing the customary military practice of secrecy prior to the launch of a campaign, the US, UK, and their Afghan and NATO partners have announced in advance not only where but when they plan to open up in a major way on Taliban. The public announcements which have been carried around the world were not just a good idea, they were a brilliant ploy.

General McChrystal has made a priority of protecting Afghan civilians from war's devastation. The announcement has made sure that beaucoup noncombatants are leaving the projected zone of operations in Helmand province focusing on the city of Lashkar Gah.

Operation Moshtarak bodes to be not only one of the largest but perhaps most decisive actions in the long, long, long and previously poorly waged war. The exodus of civilians from the area, which has been a center of both Taliban strength and opium production for years, is an essential for the operations success. Knowing this the Talib forces have sought not only to prevent civilian departure but to so intimidate the local population that it could use civilians as shields against the allied troops.

No one has ever accused Afghans of being particularly slow on the uptake when it is their lives which are on the line. The last generation or so of constant warfare has honed the sense of self-preservation to a fine edge which has been in no way dulled by the Taliban's Islamist views of the love of death being more godly than a love of life. Thus, the massive display of a very timely "feet don't fail me now" mentality on the part of the civilians.

Encouragement for the flood of departure has been provided by the highly visible preparatory moves by the British troops as well as the US Marines. In this area the Brits have been the more deliberately obvious as they have staged "shaping" operations in recent days. There can be little doubt that any civilians watching these preparatory moves would find a potent reason to have important and pressing business elsewhere.

The British Army in large measure due to its superb training, very high quality leadership at all levels from the section to the brigade, unit cohesion, presents a picture of uncompromising, remorseless dedication to victory which gives it a powerful moral ascendancy over its opponents. While the Taliban are not the Argentinians of the Falkland Island fracas, they cannot be immune to the looming reality of defeat, purposeless "martyrdom," and final futility.

In a very real way the British Army is better than the legends of the Texas Rangers. (You might remember the yarn of a Ranger saying, "No one can stop a man who knows he is in the right and keeps on coming.") Even when let down by their political masters, provided with deficient or inadequate equipment, the British other ranks and the officers leading them are more than willing to "keep on coming" even against an enemy qualitatively superior. (Think Western Desert before Monty came along.)

The same may be said of the US Marines who are taking the biggest combat bite. As fighters the Marines are undeniably at the top of the heap. Looking back at the debacle in Vietnam, the historian can only conclude that the Marines of Eye Corps did the most successful, continuous, effective heavy lifting of the war--even though the Marine grunt had a bit less than a fifty-fifty chance of getting through his thirteen month tour both undead and unwounded.

With many civilians out of the way, both the Marines and the British Army have a good to excellent chance of macerating the Taliban despite prepared IEDs, fortified villages, and suicide bombers. Taliban will take a lickin' and most probably will not keep on tickin'.

Of course the operation will not be a walk over for either the Americans or the British. The good guys will take a hit--perhaps even a heavy one. In exchange the war in Afghanistan may very well have finally reached a necessary turning point. At the end of the op the Taliban may finally realize that there is no way it can achieve a military victory over the "infidels."

The biggest unknown of the upcoming fracas is the performance of the Afghan National Army. The attached Afghan force is comprised of units which have reached the highest level of training performance. But, as anyone who has felt his balls creep upward as an angry round flies by, "all training is simulated."

If the Afghan units perform successfully there is real reason to hope for the timely achievement of the minimum necessary American (and British) strategic goal: not-losing. A successful performance by the Afghan National Force would also provide substance to the concept of an Afghan polity. Finally, it would give Afghanistan a genuine national institution transcending most tribal, ethnic, linguistic identities. It would show the Afghan National Force to be what George Washington said of the post-Revolutionary War US Army, "a school for citizenship."

Should the US, UK, NATO, and Afghan forces come out way on top in the upcoming campaign, there is reason to believe that Taliban would seek to find a political accommodation with the Kabul government. As everyone realizes no internal war can be finally decided by only military means. Military operations may lead to hostilities termination but only a process of political accommodation can bring about conflict resolution.

In short, the military must smash Taliban sufficiently that the leadership is willing to accept the messy process of reaching compromise outcomes with the in-power regime. The regime must also accept that it cannot kill its way to unchallenged authority and settle for operational dominance of the nation.

At the moment Karzai seems inclined to accept that reality--if his words can be taken at face value. His less than spectacularly legitimate regime can do no other if it wants to stay in power--which it does ever so much.

Operation Moshtarak will not in and of itself bring about hostilities termination. That will take more operations, more yomping the mountains and deserts, more killing, more dying.

This implies that the essential nature of the contest in Afghanistan has not altered. At root, it is a battle of political will between the Afghan supporters of Taliban and the publics of the US, UK, and other Western countries. If we in the US or our counterparts in the UK and elsewhere lose heart before Taliban comes to grip with the new realities, then all the bravery, sacrifice, and effort will go for nothing.

While chewing on that basic truth we must consider another. When the day of conflict resolution finally arrives, the Afghanistan which emerges will not be some sort of imitation Western democracy with pluralism, tolerance, free institutions, an independent judiciary, and shopping malls. It will be a mess not unlike contemporary Iraq. When the shooting stops Afghanistan will still be heavily tribal, strongly Islamist, stone broke, and reactionary in many ways.

The best that can be hoped for is that Afghanistan in the future will not repeat the fatal error of Taliban chieftain Omar and extend "Islamic" hospitality and protection to an Osama bin Laden or a group such as al-Qaeda. Not a lofty end to envision, but a highly necessary one.

The US Gets The Old "One-Two," Again

The US has a remarkable--and completely baseless--faith in economic sanctions. The number of times such pressure has gained a positive policy outcome since the Colonial response to the Stamp Act over two hundred years back is so close to zero that no real distinction can be drawn.

More typically sanctions whether unilateral or of the multi-national sort are without effect at best and counterproductive at worst. Doubters might want to take a dekko at either the progressive slew of sanctions imposed on Imperial Japan (and the ultimate effect at Pearl Harbor) or those of George H.W. Bush on Panama--a country so dependent on the US that it used the dollar as its circulating medium--and the aftermath, Operation Just Cause.

Regardless of history and its lessons we have been at it again in the Great Iranian Nuclear Caper. To date the sanctions imposed by the UN have been without discernible effect, or at least, a noticeable, positive one. The reasons for the failure are well known and have been commented upon many times in this blog.

However, we are about to go through the motions, the well-scripted, well-choreographed and quite over-rehearsed dance of more UN Security Council sanction effort. And, once again, in an equally well-scripted, well-choreographed, over-rehearsed ploy, the Iranians and the Trolls of Beijing are moving to block or at the very least denature the US sponsored move.

Ahmedinejad made the first gesture even as he crowed over the launching of a payload of turtles, earthworms, and other lesser critters on board an Iranian rocket. The Iranian Orator-in-Chief made conciliatory noises to the presumed effect that maybe, perhaps, the Iranians just might accept the long standing UN brokered exchange of Iranian low enrichment uranium for higher octane stuff from abroad.

The Iranian ambassador to the UN International Atomic Energy Agency could not confirm the substance of his boss's statement. Neither did he deny it. The old Tehran shuffle was in play.

While Tehran shuffled, the action passed to the Trolls of Beijing. This well-practiced bunch came on stage not only on cue and on their mark but with the dialogue each and every well-honed ear around the world knew would be coming.

The ForMin got the lines. He delivered them in Paris not that many days after SecState Clinton had warned from the same city of Chinese "isolation" should they not get on board with the new sanctions. The ForMin, Yang Jiechi, opined that sanctions would not be in order given the "new" Iranian willingness to give diplomacy a chance.

Yang's timing was most unpleasant for his French hosts. The French are on the verge of assuming the Security Council's rotating presidency and they had meant to make the most of it. French PM Francois Fillon was chomping at getting the opportunity to grab the spotlight and demand the next round of sanctions, the "crippling" ones so often alluded to by Ms Clinton.

The Chinese position is pretty much of a show-stopper. No glory for the French. No pain for the Iranian regime. And, no gain for the Obama administration.

Any sort of sanction which would not be slapped down by a Chinese veto will be of such an inconsequential nature that no Iranian would notice it. Unless, of course, propaganda purposes would be served by so doing.

The UN Security Council will pass something. The Chinese will probably accept the passage of one more piece of symbolism without doing more than deploring and abstaining. A Security Council resolution of any nature is the necessary prologue to what might actually be for real sanctions by the European Union.

Russia is sort of on board for a Security Council action as the Bear's ego was bent by the Iranian rejection of the first cut of low-for-midrange uranium exchange. The Kremlin really believed they had a more "mature" relationship with the Mullahs of Tehran. The boys really don't like to be proven wrong.

Of course it is impossible to have a "mature" relation with Iran--unless you simply bow down to the will of Allah as interpreted by the Supreme Leader and his clerical coterie. Nor can mere discomfort such as that presented by the sanctions both old and the new, improved, "crippling" sort outweigh in the Tehran calculus the good which possession of a nuclear capability would automatically provide.

The reality is that Iran is run by a crew of True Believers with a strongly eschatological bent and shrewd dreams of regional hegemony and global player status. The only counter-force to the regime and its supporters is the domestic opposition.

Clearly a careful orchestration of effort between Concerned Civilized Countries and the domestic opposition is not beyond the realm of the plausible--and possible. Coupled with wide-ranging sanctions which undercut the already flaky Iranian economy (and, of course and necessity, mean real pain for the average Iranian regardless of his position on the political spectrum) a full-bore support for the domestic opposition carries the strong potential of pushing the regime over the edge with results as good for the world and the Iranian people as fatal to the regime.

In the Goldilocks game of diplomacy there are always three options. One will always be too cold--in this case, sanctions per se. One will be too hot--the "military option." The third has the potential for being "just right." This means the combination of open support for the opposition and a genuine attempt to ruin the Iranian economy lock, stock, and barrel.

The "just right" alternative perforce will be messy. And bloody. But, it beats the alternatives of having a nuclear capable mullahocracy or a very unpleasant and far from small scale war.

The clock has about run out on the Obama administration in this game. The number of viable options has dropped to one. And, only if the administration finally comes to terms with the real world and not the fantasyland it has been living in for a year now.

Islam And "Manliness"

Raymond Ibrahim has an interesting piece in Pajamas Media which raises several points central to the matters of homegrown Islamist terrorism and the presence of Americans and Europeans of the "blond hair, blue eyed" sort in Islamist centers such as Yemen. Ibrahim's main thesis is that the religious tenets of Islam have an essential appeal to young men who are not comfortable with the totems of gender neutrality current in the West generally and the US in particular.

There is no doubt but that a large germ of truth resides in Ibrahim's analysis. The past forty years have not been comfortable ones for those of us of the male persuasion who came of age before the explosive growth of feminism and its concomitant drive for cross-the-board equality. The effects of the feminist and post-feminist thinking on younger men struck the Geek hard as he taught college students who had apparently been led to believe that men were solely and completely responsible for all the unpleasant features of life from wars to crime to, presumably, the flu and common cold.

The eons long "battle of the sexes" has morphed into an uneasy coexistence between parties who do not really know one another beyond the fact that neither can exist without the other's presence, support, and (hopefully) intimate cooperation. It isn't a cold war exactly, but neither is it a hot peace of mutual understanding and appreciation.

There is no surprise that the need for constant reinterpretation, re-engagement, re-evaluation and re-negotiation of the details of life between man and woman in all spheres of life proves more than a little unsettling to some men--both those who are young and those for whom youth is but a faraway memory. Life in the Islamist environment of stiff rules and requirements, clear definition of responsibility--and definite subordination of women would seem halcyon to those who are discommoded by life in the West with its hazy lines, changing rules, and shifting tectonic plates of relationship.

The problem comes in that the Islamist view of the role of men in society as well as their firm belief that men in the West are soft, decadent, and deeply feminized are wrong in all respects. Those who migrate across the great cultural divide between the civilization of the West and the retrograde barbarism of Islamism are pursuing a mirage far more destructive of life than the optical distortions of the desert heat.

The true role of men--both before and after the tidal wave of feminism--is and always has been to protect, cherish, and love. It is not and never has been as the Islamists argue proper or necessary for men to subordinate women--let alone imprison them or kill them over something as specious as honor.

Men do kill. Typically they kill of necessity without any joy or desire. Those who do kill without sufficient cause or justification are considered outlaws not heroes by others of their sex. Similarly, men who hunt without necessity nor discretion are viewed not as supermen but rather akin to a weasel in the chicken pen.

Hunting--and killing--are male. There is room for both, deep and ample room, in the genetically determined back brain of all men. This realization caused men long ago, long back in the deepest fog of the prehistory of our species to derive the rituals of passage between the estate of the boy and that of the man.

All the rituals including those practiced by the Apache portion of the Geek's ancestry emphasized the vulnerability of the individual man, the need for him to cooperate completely with other men for the benefit of the group. A group which necessarily included women and children. These rituals provided the means by which the candidate for manhood would control and focus his aggression, his strength, his totality for the good of all and not simply for himself and his desires.

Islamism does not do any of these things. It places no limits and encourages no man to control his passions, his strength, his aggression for the real, immediate, and specific benefit of the collective of which he is one small but vital component. Rather, Islamism commands men to act as though they have never outgrown the first rush of adolescence when hormones ran high and self-control sank to the lower depths.

In a very real way those males who flee the West with its uncertainties for Islamism with its false sureness are seeking a never-ending bout of untrammeled adolescence where self-gratification and specious notions of potency triumph all else. These fugitives from manhood seek to prolong the freedom of the teenager.

Koranic justifications, invocations of the life of the Perfect Man, Mohammad, or the lives of his nearly perfect Companions do not alter the ground truth. That truth is simply this: False men, living false lives of dreams, dreams of killing, raping, subjugating, are travesties of the reality of manhood.

The reality of manhood is far less attractive. It is accepting the bitter truth that men are expendable. Men take risks. Men are here to face down the mastodon, the saber tooth tiger. To die if need be so that a woman--or another man--might live.

It is far easier to take the teenage route. To fancy one the best, the conquerer, the smiter of evil, the killer. It is hard, damn hard, to accept the way of the man, the way of sacrifice, the way of injury, the way of dying to protect another, to interpose one's only body between the perpetual teenager with a gun and the lady one loves.

China Triumphant?

It cannot be said that the government of China is lacking in self-esteem. Nor can it be said that the Trolls of Beijing do not believe fully that the Forbidden City has reclaimed the "Mantel of Heaven" from the barbarians of the West--including the US.

The reaction of the Trolls to the announced sale by the US of Patriot missile batteries, Blackhawk helicopters, and Osprey mine hunting ships to Taiwan has surpassed previous denunciations of American support for the island state. Sanctions against US companies as well as other unspecified consequences have been spit like rail gun projectiles since the deal was announced.

The tone of the Beijing message has been that of superior to inferior. The lofty disapproval and threats of punishment by the Central Kingdom against those barbarians who fail to show proper deference, to pay tribute, to kowtow.

The response by the Trolls undoubtedly surpassed the expectations of the Obama administration--as is evidenced by the pathetic sense of timing shown by Secretary of State Clinton during her remarks in Paris the other day. Remarks which threatened China with diplomatic isolation and other icky-poo things should the Trolls not go along with the next round of sanctions on Iran.

The howls from the Trolls as well as "consequences" for the US will grow louder and perhaps more harmful should the Obama administration find Taiwan is in justified need of the jet fighters and submarines which it has requested. It might be noted in passing that the American sale, even if it should finally include the jets and subs, will in no way alter the basic military balance between China and Taiwan. That balance is irrevocably tilted in favor of the Trolls whose military expenditures continue to expand at double digit percentages year after year.

As the Obama administration and, in particular, the Secretary of State consider the implications of the Chinese reaction, lack of cooperation on Iran, and massive holdings of US debt, they might also consider where the responsibility for the current degenerate situation resides. A bit of pondering on that question might give insight as to where the solution might be found.

Chinese triumphalism is predicated on US money. American bucks have been flowing in ever larger torrents ever since President Clinton "opened the door." Clinton believed for reasons rooted in ideology rather than realpolitik that open trade made for good neighbors. He was wrong. The Chinese hold to a course of world politics which has been and will be hostile to the national security and strategic interests of the US.

President W. Bush pushed the trade door open even further. He also was propelled by ideology rather than realism. His ideology was rooted in the supposed benefits for "bidness" as well as the American consumer. Both did benefit economically, the former more than the latter. But, the benefits for both "bidness" and consumer were at the expense of the nation as a whole.

As anyone with a minimal knowledge of both Chinese history and basic economics could have told either President Clinton or his successor, the Chinese would rake in dollars almost beyond counting. These dollars would furnish the ways and means not only for commercial development, economic expansion, and jobs but also for military expansion and--here is the Mr Big of things--purchasing foreign debt, particularly American debt.

Thus, in so far as the Chinese are feeling triumphant, it is a triumph which we have handed them on a Yankee greenback tray. The feeling of triumph need not last. That is the good news.

First of all, the Chinese are already demonstrating a degree of hubris which would have done Bush/Cheney proud. Whether engaging in espionage on an industrial scale in the West (as MI 5 has noted regarding the UK) or declaring "nyet" with a volume which the old Soviets never showed regarding Iran or waving rhetorical cudgels at the US without a thought as to possible responses, the Trolls are exhibiting hubris at an astronomical level.

The US is not without means to slow Chinese economic recovery. It is not without the capacity to impair the sale of Chinese origin goods in the US. Doing so would not only be salutary to the Trolls, it would do some good for American businesses particularly those few which still make things rather than provide services.

Sanctions against US companies who furnish equipment to Taiwan must be met on an augmented "tit for tat" basis. So also should lack of cooperation on Iran be countered by a similar response.

Now for the hard part. The administration and Congress must wean themselves from dependence on the Chinese debt purchasers. Considering the ability of the Fed and Treasury to create more inflationary "virtual" dollars, this should not be impossible. Catastrophic inflation may reside in either option, but the second approach at least lessens the capacity of the Trolls to limit American foreign policy freedom.

The Great American Public had a long, long spending spree due to China. The dues collector has come so we all will take a necessary hit in the short to mid-term, but that is better than having to bend our national and strategic interests to the dictates of the Trolls of Beijing.

Now, repeat after the Geek, "Buying Chinese is trading with the enemy." That may have been beyond the comprehension of three American presidents (including the incumbent,) but it should and must not be beyond ours.

Talk About Bad Timing!

In the Great Game of Nations complexity is the rule. This being the ground truth, the main rule of the matter it ill behooves a country to make the game even more complex. However, this is what the Obama administration has managed to do in its so far bootless effort to constrain Iranian nuclear ambitions.

To be quite fair events outside the control of the administration have also served to render the Iranian nuclear question even more complex and resistant to solution. The specific event here is the killing of Hamas heavyweight Mahmoud al-Mabhou in Dubai.

The specific complication for which the Obama administration must take full responsibility is the sale of defensive weapon systems to Taiwan at almost the very moment that Secretary of State Clinton was making threats against Beijing in Paris. The administration acknowledged the obvious in advance: That the Chinese would go exoatmospheric over the sale.

Still, the sale and the threat of "diplomatic isolation" went on in apparent tandem. It is bizarre enough to utter dark predictions of evil consequences which would ensue upon the Trolls of Beijing continuing their opposition to another round of UN sanctions given that China is soon to be the second largest economy on the planet and holds oodles and oodles of Uncle Sam's IOUs with more on route. It is beyond the merely bizarre to assert such threats when the US needs the understanding cooperation of Beijing on many levels far more than the Chinese need Washington.

China may not veto any new round of Security Council sanctions, but it is not likely to abide by them. The same may be said of the Russians--and other countries. Even if Russia is on board with another sanction effort, it is less than probable that it would move to enforce them. Also questionable is the continued will and resolve of either Germany or France to take the economic hit of actually curtailing the thriving trade which businesses in both nations have carried on with the Iranians.

The cover for major sanction busting is already in place. It is provided by the internal opposition to the mullahocracy. An easy argument to the effect that any particular sanction requirement might hurt the Iranian people but not the government or Revolutionary Guard Corps exists.

Even if not true, even if the sanctions are narrowly directed against the Revolutionary Guard and other governmental entities, it may be said with a more-or-less straight face that the ultimate effect of any particular sanction (such as one hitting the gasoline deficiencies in the country) can be seen as weakening the opposition by hurting the person in the street. Thus, sanctions no matter how worded will be porous to the extreme.

The US has pinned too many hopes on the sanctions. So far none have worked. None are likely to given the resistance of the Trolls of Beijing and the ability of others to excuse sanction violations. As a result there exist two almost equally unpleasant alternatives: Accept Iran as a nuclear capable power and pray for sanity in Tehran or use the "military option."

In the interim the administration has to accept the probability that Iran will strike at Israel using proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah. That the administration is doing just this is seen in the recent comment by former Marine general and current National Security Advisor, James Jones, that such are both probable and near term.

The near term just became shorter with the killing of the Hamas commander in Dubai. No matter who precisely suffocated (or electrocuted following torture) the guy, Hamas has already (surprise here) pointed the finger at Mossad. While it is equally probable that al-Mabhouh was killed by individuals in no way connected with either Mossad or Israel, the "Zionist entity" will be held responsible not only by Hamas but Tehran.

The Iranians are the largest supporter of Hamas as they are Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah which is subject to a fair amount of Syrian influence if not control, Hamas is answerable only to Tehran. The consequence is simply that if the interests of both are served, the resulting unity will assure Hamas takes its best shot at Israel (including Israel's external interests.)

The consequence of the new Dubai complication does reinforce the message of SecState Clinton to Beijing: That Iran is key to (in)stability in the region and this will redound to either the advantage or disadvantage of China.

The only bright ray of hope in the current set of reinforcing complexities is to be found in the inherent Chinese distaste for instability. More than most Western governments and societies turbulence of a social and political sort is anathema to the Chinese. If their Mideast/Persian Gulf regional experts are on the ball, the possibilities for burgeoning instability resident not only in the Iranian bomb dream but in the Iranian use of proxies against Israel and others will be properly highlighted for their bosses' attention and action.

Of course, the promptings of regional experts will be drowned out at least in the near future by the sense of outrage resounding around the Forbidden City in the wake of the US selling gigabucks of hardware to a recipient considered by the Trolls to be a province in rebellion. The rights and wrongs of this position are manifold but the consequences are not. China is not likely to heed either the threats of Secretary Clinton or the advice of their in-house experts.

So what?

So, the Obama administration can set yet one more deadline for Tehran's compliance. Or not. The end is the same. Iran will continue to pursue the bomb. The Israelis will have a very difficult decision to make. Hamas will seek to kill more.

Like some Frenchman once wrote, "The more things change, the more they stay the same."