Evo Morales--The Chicken Becomes a Fox

The Geek has to admire a slick job when he sees one. Bolivian president Evo Morales has pulled off one super slick trick. No doubt about it.

Morales, Bolivia's first Indio president has signed a recall election bill into law. Pushed by his "white" opponents who hallucinated that the soccer playing one time peasant had been weakened by the results of the Santa Cruz provincial autonomy referendum on 4 May could be removed from office through a recall vote.

The bill which Morales signed provides for himself and all nine provincial governors to face recall in a special election on 10 August. So far, so good. Or so it seems.

The devil, of course, was hiding in the details. Apparently so blinded by the glorious vision of removing the uppity Indian from office, the opposition didn't look closely at the precise wording of the new legislation.

To be removed from office Morales or any of the nine governors must receive a "no" vote total that is greater in both absolute numbers and percentage of the vote cast than the votes they received in the last general election.

The Geek tips his hat to the shrewd high school dropout president.

Get a grip on this. Morales received approximately 1.5 million votes, or more than fifty-three percent of those cast. To be removed from office the "no" vote total must be greater than 1.5 million and the percentage must exceed the 53.7 percent.

There ain't no way that's going to happen.

Some of the governors aren't so fortunate. Take, for example, Jose Luis Paredes the governor of La Paz and an opponent of Morales. He won the Morales supporting state with thirty-eight percent of the vote. If thirty-nine percent of the voters check the "no" box, Paredes is out and the llama herder turned president gets to appoint a replacement.

Sweet?

You bet. There is no way that Morales is going to wake up sad come morning on the 11th of August.

Slickness may be enough to keep Morales in office. It may even be enough to remove pesky governors who don't march to the tune of Evo's Populist Band.

It isn't enough to assure the best future for Bolivia. It isn't even enough to give Morales a good write up in future history texts.

Morales, like his colleagues Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa, is a populist. He came to power through the democratic process as did the other two. He, along with Chavez and, to some extent, Correa, doesn't like globalization.

More to the point, in common with the other two is the latest round of a long standing South American political disease.

The name of that disease?

Economic populism.

It is amazing how little so many South Americans fail to learn from their continent' political history.

Economic populism has a long record of abject (and often bloody) failure through the length and breadth of the continent. The narrative is always the same. It is always based on ethno-nationalism and a hyped sense that "we" (the locals, the working class, Los Indios, the peasants) are being heartlessly exploited by "them" (the ricos, the Norteamericanos, the "whites.")

The populist demagogue rouses fear and anger. Fear and anger produce enthusiasm and votes.

Badda-bing! The populist is elected. Ain't democracy grand?

Comes now the redistribution of land, the nationalization of basic industry, of financial institutions, the confiscation of wealth. Now the landless will have land. The jobless will have jobs. The poor will have wealth.

In the short term everything will look good as the history of Juan Peron in Argentina shows,

Eventually the wheels fall off the Great Socialist Vehicle. Inflation. Hyperinflation. Loss of agricultural and industrial productivity. Systemic inefficiency. Infrastructure collapse. An end to investment both foreign and domestic. Middle class flight.

The process used to take years, even decades. Now it can occur in months given the speed with which information moves and decisions made.

The Bolivian Slicky-Boy may be lucky. Lord knows, the ex-paratrooper Chavez has been.

Morales' running buddy, the inventor of "Socialism For the 21st Century" Hugo Chavez, has been a favorite son of Lady Luck. The rocketing price of oil has buoyed the more-or-less democratically elected semi-authoritarian.

While as many of the middle class as can get visas and plane tickets to Panama or points even more to the north, while the production of Venezuela's oil fields slides due to loss of skill and degradation of plant, Chavez has been able to fund the FARC insurgents in Columbia, make wink and nudge agreements with the mullahocracy in Iran and sign contracts for two gigabucks worth of Russian weapons.

Will Morales be so fortunate?

Bolivian natural gas is critical to both Argentina and Brazil. At least for the moment.

But how long will that last?

Large hydrocarbon deposits have been discovered in the waters of Brazil's Exclusive Economic Zone. With foreign direct investment and co-production agreements in the offing, Brazil will not only be able to meet its own needs but become a major exporter.

Assuming that the Brazilians do not engage in another of their recurrent flights of economic populism, the market forces will work in Brazil's favor. The country already has a firm industrial base and a fair amount of indigenous capital. Exportation of hydrocarbon, particularly natural gas, will enhance not only Brazil but countries such as Argentina who can use the resource beneficially.

For the market to work the context must be stable and predictable. This means that excesses of democracy must be avoided. It also means that the region must be free from both violence and threats of violence.

Here Evo Morales the current Fox of the Andes may be out foxing himself and his fellow Bolivians. By linking himself ideologically with Hugo Chavez who is shaping up as the The Continental Thug, Morales may be helping to assure the very instability which will undercut the potential of regional economic prosperity.

Take a look at history, Presidente Morales. Look at Argentina. At Juan Peron and the lingering effects of the Peronistas. Take a look at Mexico. Take a close look at what has happened recently in Mexico with the lack of foreign investment in the oilfields.

Take a long, hard look at history and think. Is this really in the best interests of Bolivia?

True, globalization is not an undiluted good (pace Alan Greenspan) and the "whites" have not been without major flaw, but is heavy handed, short-sighted seizure of land and resources the best way to provide the best future for all Bolivians?

Economic populism is a great way to get power. It is a piss-poor way to run a country.