Monday, May 19, 2008

Is Osama bin Laden Getting Catty or Just Losing It?

In his latest audiotape, al-Qaeda Symbol-in-Chief, bin Laden, sang one of his long time faves, "Death to the Zionist Entity and the Apostate Arab Leaders Who Protect It." This time he added some new lyrics.

Specifically the hermit sage named names and pointed fingers.

Bin Laden pointed his Flying Finger of Blame at Hezbollah. The name he named was that of Hezbollah's capo de tutti capi, Hassan Nasrallah.

Apparently the al-Qaeda Leader In Hiding was unimpressed by the outcome of the Hezbollah vs Israeli Defense Forces match up back in 2006. From the Geek's perspective, Hezbollah did very well against the IDF. Much better than, say, Taliban against the minature US invasion force and its Northern Alliance confederates four years earlier.

Maybe Osama is bent out of shape because he is the Running Man while Nasrallah sits in front of al-Jeezera cameras.

Deep in his twenty-two minute rant, the Troglodyte Sheik rhetorically demands why Nasrallah and his Hezbollah fighters allowed the UN peacekeepers "to protect the Jews." The Mystic of the Mountains alleged Nasrallah was deficient in manliness. "If he was honest and has enough (resources), why then he did not support the fight to liberate Palestine."

Golly, Mr bin Ladan, you sure do ask the tough questions.

Perhaps Nasrallah stopped fighting when he did because he has enough brains to know that Hezbollah had won. Did you consider that, Osama?

Hezbollah did win in a substantial and meaningful way. The IDF lost heavily. Israel did not accomplish any of the goals for which its military had been employed. Hezbollah gained status with Sunnis and Shias alike. It showed to its sponsors, Iran and Syria, that their investments had been well worth the price.

Perhaps Hezbollah's greatest victory in 2006 was undercutting Israeli self-confidence, certainty and political will.

It's second greatest victory?

The al-Qaeda Pontificator told us that. Hezbollah has replaced al-Qaeda as The Great Hope of Islamic Irredentism.

The rise of Hezbollah to the top of the Islamist/jihadist charts rebounded to Iran's advantage as the audiotape acknowledges. Bin Laden's admission comes in characteristically backhanded fashion. He accused Iran of wanting to dominate the Mideast--a charge he usually levels only at the United States.

Way to go, Nasrallah! You've pushed Iran ahead of the US at least on points.

Interestingly, the tape made no mention of the recent events in Lebanon where the US supported government failed in its attempt to rein in Hezbollah. Either the tape was made long before these events or The Grand Interpreter of Allah's Will did not want to give Hezbollah even more credit.

Hezbollah has emerged in the past two years as a major player in Mideast politics and Western anxieties. It has done this as al-Qaeda has faded.

Hezbollah has shown itself able to successfully confront Israel both directly and through proxies. It has treated with its "host" government as an equal--perhaps as something more than a mere equal.

In comparison, al-Qaeda and its Fugitive Generalissimo have managed to have their "host" government destroyed. In addition, the Peerless Band of Godly Warriors have managed to make themselves detested in Iraq, distrusted in most of the Mideast and doubted in the rest of the Muslim world.

No wonder Osama is feeling poopy and letting it show.

This leads to several questions--

The first is simply, what is al-Qaeda going to do about its diminished status? Skulk around in the mountains of the Pakistani Tribal Agencies or stage a spectacular act?

The Geek would hope for the first but prepare for the second. Al-Qaeda is down but most assuredly not out.

The second question is: Should the West, particularly the US, put Hezbollah and its chief sponsor, Iran, on the top of the International Worry List? The answer to that is self-evident.

There is a third question. What ever happened to Adam Gadhan? Was he killed along with Abu al-Laith last January in Mir Ali, Pakistan by a Predator launched Hellfire? Or is the one time California environmentalist studying for an advanced degree at some backwater madrassa?

The Geek misses Adam's translations since it means he has to improve his Arabic--a distasteful expenditure of time and energy.

Come on back, Adam (if you're still with us), we need you.

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