Ahh, It's So Easy To Forget--And So Dangerous

Gather 'round kiddies and Ole Uncle Geek will tell you a story. A story that has obviously been forgotten by assorted academics, politicians (both here and in Europe) and pundits (again both here and overseas.) A story that is relevant to our current problems with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Resurgent Russian Empire.

Long ago (the 1930s) and far away (Europe) there lived a man who was leader of his country. The country had been broken and impoverished and embittered by having lost a war. The leader wrought an economic miracle and made the people of his country feel strong and proud again. Now the leader and his newly empowered army faced a challenge.

The challenge was in a neighboring country. According to the Leader and his country's news media, the government of this next door neighbor was abusing and oppressing citizens who spoke the language of the Leader and his fellow countrymen.

The Leader proclaimed that this oppression of his co-Germanophones was unacceptable. A clear violation of their human rights. (Although, to be honest the Leader didn't use that term. It hadn't been invented yet.)

The Leader also gnashed his teeth over the government of this small eastern neighbor having signed agreements with large and powerful states located to the west of the Leader's country.

Something had to be done!

It was.

The heads of the western governments met with the Leader in the old and scenic city of Munchen for a conference designed to placate the Leader and assure "peace in our time."

Peace was assured. For one whole year. The small neighbor was ceremoniously dismembered and left open to a full occupation by the Leader's army.

Germany had triumphed. Hitler rode high on his charisma, political sagacity and the appearance of a military/diplomatic walkover.

A year later Hitler would try to do the same in Poland. For a while he was successful.

Now, kiddies, lets go back a few years earlier. Back to when the Leader rolled his political dice for the first time. Back to when he ordered the new and splendidly non-competent Wehrmacht to reoccupy the demilitarized west bank of the Rhine in violation of the treaty ending World War I.

A small contingent of German troops marched into the Rhineland under orders to beat feet beaucoup schnell if they met any resistance, no matter how slight. A single French military cop would have been enough.

There were no French MPs. There was no French response. The British likewise stood still and silent. Some even offered apologies and excuses for the German action.

It was, after all, their country, wasn't it?

And, the Versailles Treaty was too harsh, wasn't it?

And, Germany is too important economically to aggravate, wasn't it?

In truth, the governments of France and Great Britain took counsel of their fears. In truth, both governments made policy for today and hoped the future would take care of itself.

(The Geek calls this tendency of governments to make policy for today while disregarding the future consequences "The Aehrenthal Doctrine" after the Austrian Foreign Minister of the years preceding World War I. Famously, he once said, "I make policy for today. Let the future take care of itself.")

It would have been very easy to thwart Hitler at the time of the Rhineland move. It would have been reasonably easy to stop him at the time of Munich. It would have been harder, but not impossible, to stop him before the tanks and Stukas moved on 1 September 1939.

It was a hell of a lot harder to stop him later.

Well, kids we forgot all this with regard the Iranian nuclear ambitions. And, buckos, we have (or are) forgetting it all over again as the Russians make their moves to reestablish operational dominance over the states the Kremlin calls "the near abroad."

Arguably, even the dimwitted neocon ninnies of the current US administration have a better handle on the historical analogies then do our European colocutors. While the Geek doubts that the current administration is using historical analogy based reasoning in forming policy, it is clear the Europeans have forgotten completely what happened in their own area less than seventy-five years ago.

The Germans have made this quite explicit with statements to the effect that "now is not the time to lay blame or question motives." The German government has already opposed allowing Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO lest doing such annoy the Kremlin. Now, the Germans don't want to say anything harshly truthful about the ongoing Russian occupation of portions of Georgia such as the city of Gori.

Why this willful act of historical lobotomy?

The reason is the same as at least one of the primary motives behind the obviously long planned Russian invasion. It's all in one word,

OK, three words. Oil. Natural gas. Thirty plus percent of the first. Nearly half of the second.

Energy for Europe.

The Germans are simply more willing than others to appease the Leader in the Kremlin.

Don't you find it passingly interesting that the ceasefire brokered by French President Sarkozy on behalf of the European Union is silent on such key points as the territorial integrity of Georgia? Isn't it a tad instructive that the agreement allows the Russians to "augment" their "peacekeeping" presence in the secessionist provinces?

Can we say, "Munich--The Sequel?"

Now a quick turn to the Iranian front. The Germans are the biggest sanction busters in Europe. They talk a great game. They play a pathetic one.

Of course, the Germans and others might think and say that the Iranians haven't crossed any actual red lines in their nuclear work to date. They might honestly believe that there is plenty of time before any drastic action might be necessary.

A good case might be made for believing that time still existed in which to seek a compromise with Tehran or with the Kremlin. The Geek would be willing to make one himself---

Except for a couple of bothersome details.

To make a case for a long and easy process of diplomacy and accommodation with either or both Russia and Iran would require ignoring the lessons of history, which show conclusively that the earlier one acts to abate a nuisance, the easier it is.

And, it would require making policy for today in the hopes that the future would take care of itself.