Hey! Vladimir! It's Time For A Change

Really, Mr Putin, you have to get a grip. The Cheney-Bush "Treat-Russia-Like-A-Loser" regime is history. You can lighten up on the threats. The Obama Administration is inclined to a far less unipolar view of the foreign relations.

Anyway, threatening deployment of the Iskander-M medium range ballistic missiles is not an inherently credible notion. In case it missed your attention, the Geek would like to point out that the "field test" during last summer's Georgian incursion showed the Iskander to be something of a dud. The touted "new" delivery system showed itself to be deficient in the old accuracy department among other shortcomings. So, unless your missile unit in Kalinigrad is going to mount nukes on their Iskanders, the system is not at all impressive in its warfighting potential.

Even your own defense wallahs have admitted that the Iskander-M is in need of further test and refinement. Maybe it's not back-to-the-drawing-boards time but you have to acknowledge reality: rattling missiles that don't work will not scare even the Western European give-peace-a-chance crowd let alone the Poles.

Then, Vladimir, you ought to consider what your past Iskander based threats have bought you in Poland. Way back when, before the Iskander flubbed up in Georgia, your threats affrighted the Poles enough to inveigle a new security agreement with the US which will materially improve the capabilities of the Polish armed forces. In case you have forgotten your KGB training, that is not the way threats are supposed to work. A threat is supposed to cow the recipient not provide an impetus to improve its capacity to resist.

When the Russian gentleman from the Ministry of Defense said yesterday that the planned deployment of Iskander-M to Kaliningrad was being put on hold, the Geek thought, "Well, the winds of realism are blowing through the Kremlin." Now, the message has changed.

The reports from Davos are that you, Mr Putin, huffed and puffed in the direction of the Polish PM. Further, one of your spokesmen has alleged that yesterday's reports were wrong, the victim of what he termed an "information collision." Whatever that might mean.

Now, "come, let us reason together," as LBJ was wont to say. Barack Obama expended a great deal of high quality campaign rhetoric against the deployment of "untested" anti-ballistic missile systems. While, as is SOP in campaign talk, his statements were hyperbolic, there is a large grain of truth behind the words.

The proposed system is far from glitch free and could benefit from an extended development and test period. The Obama Administration is poised to grant the time necessary. This is good.

However, if any delay in deploying the proposed ABMs to Poland is seen as capitulation to Russian (oops! The Geek almost wrote "Soviet.") shoe banging, the administration will come under increasing, perhaps intense political pressure here in the US. This could cause difficulties not in the better interests of either the US or Russia.

We all know that the handful of short range interceptor missiles in no way compromises Russia's ability to plant mushroom clouds throughout the US and the rest of the world. Anyone with the slightest awareness of Russia's nuclear delivery potential well understands that.

In all probability the boys in the Kremlin are far more concerned about the expiration of START I next December. Both Russia and the United States have large stockpiles of aging nuclear warheads. Similarly the extant delivery systems in both countries are not getting any younger or more effective. The US has made some (halting, hesitant) steps in the direction of procuring upgraded warheads or, as the Russians call them, "nuclear charges." Hints oozing around the high and tight Russian secrecy wall indicate the same dynamic is at work over there.

A new agreement would carry with it the potential of allowing both Russia and the US building down to the level of a "finite deterrent" of modernised, reliable and more robustly controllable warheads and delivery vehicles. This sort of move would be in the better interests of both countries (and the rest of the world as well.)

Then there is Iran.

Neither Russia nor the US can be contemplate a nuclear capable Iran with equanimity. Russia, far more than the United States, has direct experience with the direct effects of Islamist powered political ideology. And, Russia is far closer to Iran and its almost laughably primitive ballistic missiles than either the US or Israel.

It follows that a jointly constructed and manned missile defense system with both the American and Russian flags flying at the gate would be in the better interests of both countries as well as other nations. The demonstrated ability to swat rogue missiles out of the sky would give real pause to any adventuresome or eschatologically motivated regime. It would even give a reason for reflecting before acting to other governments which, while nuclear capable, lack the diffuse surge launch capacity of either the US or Russia.

Right now is the perfect time for both Moscow and Washington to sit back and consider non-threat based options. Both Russia and the US can step back from any rush to deploy. Both can cite legitimate "technical considerations" as the reason and let the diplomats engage in the normal palaver of the game of nations. The United States and Russia, as has so often been the case in the past, have coinciding national interests.

Both countries have a ground for diplomacy. Stand on it and use it.

Mr Putin, if you or one of your staff had been a faithful reader of this blog, you would have noticed just how often the Geek excoriated the Cheney-Bush Administration for having not treated Russia as the Great Power that it is. There is no need for Russia to engage in anachronistic Cold War techniques of threats and shouting "Nyet!"

Russian (and American) interests would be best served by having another "information collision" and announcing that the missile tweakers of Kaliningrad will just have to soldier on for a little while longer with their old missiles. Try it, Vladimir, you'll like it.