Islamabad At Its Annoying Best

In a combination of hyper-nationalistic snit and one more extortion attempt, the Pakistani government has shut down the supply route running through the Khyber Pass.  While this is only one route, it is the easiest, fastest land line of communication supporting the war in Afghanistan.  Should the Pakistani blockade prove long lasting, the results would be harmful but not fatal to our military operations.

The Pakistani action has been taken in retaliation for the killing of three Frontier Corps troops manning a checkpoint two hundred meters from the international border with Afghanistan.  The killings (along with the wounding of the other three paramilitary personnel at the site) occurred as American forces were engaging a Taliban unit preparing and firing mortars from a location near or even on the imaginary line dividing Afghanistan from its neighbor.  At the completion of a firing run the helicopters may--or may not--have swung briefly into the airspace of Pakistan.

It was at this point that the six hearties of the Frontier Corps opened fire on the gunships with small arms.  The "air weapons team" then returned fire pursuant to self-defense rules of engagement.  The results were unfavorable for the men downrange.

The Pakistani interior minister frothed about the need to determine if Pakistan and the US were allies or actually enemies.  Of course, in the view of the majority of Pakistanis surveyed in recent months, the answer is already known--the US is Enemy Number One.

The closure as well as the event which apparently precipitated it both occurred as CIA director Leon Panetta is in country meeting with his ISI counterpart as well as President Zardiri and PM Gilani.  The prime minister reportedly told Panetta he was "profoundly concerned" about this most recent incident as well as the air weapons team attacks on Haqqani network trigger pullers a few days ago.

The irony of this development is found in fortuitous timing.  A bit of video potentially exceptionally embarrassing to the government and army of Pakistan has surfaced on Facebook with a consequent spread to the MSM.  The video is explicit but nowhere near as grisly as others showing Taliban executions.  It shows men in Pakistani uniforms, using the standard military small arm, the H&K G3, lining up and shooting down a half dozen men in civilian clothes who are blindfolded with hands tied behind their backs.  Near the end of the five and a half minute clip, a troopie is seen administering the mercy shot to those still living.

(Update: Facebook has removed the video.  What a bunch of socially unconscious wimps!)

If the video is confirmed in its authenticity, which is far from improbable, the consequences for Pakistan and, by implication, the US-Pakistani joint "war on terror" will be major.  US law prohibits granting aid to military forces whose members engage in war crimes.  The extra-judicial shooting of actual or suspected guerrillas does constitute a war crime no matter how justifiable by the doctrine of military necessity it may appear in the eyes of those ordering the summary execution.

The Pakistani armed forces are very heavily dependent upon American largess.  So far the money, weapons, and equipment have flowed without cease no matter how uncooperative or inefficient the recipient may be in prosecuting operations against Taliban and all the others dedicated to violent political Islam.  It will be difficult to the point of impossibility to continue flooding Pakistan with weapons in the face of the behavior captured in this video.

Rumors and similar undocumented tales of Pakistani army violations of the laws and customs of land warfare have abounded for some time now.  It is easy to pass off stories of abuses as insubstantial or fabricated, but doing such when it is possible to go to the videotape is not so easy.

The Obama administration may hope the stories of Pakistani abuses will fail to have legs this close to the midterm elections.  The administration may hope as well that the Republicans will let sleeping atrocity tales remain unawakened.  Both of these hopes are well grounded.

The tape and the others like it which may well surface in days and weeks to come do present an opportunity for the administration to push back against the annoying extortion tactics of Islamabad.  It is quid pro quo time.

The quid is simple.  The Pakistanis stand down from their hyper-nationalistic dudgeon and either get on the stick in North Waziristan or let us do the job without the niggling annoyances of episodic governmental blathering.

The quo is equally simple.  We will not make a federal case (literally) from the video and any others yet to come.  We will also make every effort to block any aid cutoff should push come to shove in Congress.

Admittedly, that sort of trade off is shabby in its ethical base.  All that can be said in support of the idea or any other resembling it is that such deal making is sanctioned by the requirements imposed by the need to abate the nuisance presented by groups motivated by the imperatives of political Islam.

The unfortunate, even tragic, reality is that of Pakistan's inherent instability.  A halt to our bribes, particularly the one represented by military aid, would result with the predictability of the law of gravity in the collapse of the government.  If not collapse, the government would have to transmogrify itself into a simulacrum of Taliban in order to remain intact and in power.

This would render continuation of the war in Afghanistan both nugatory and impossible.  It would also breed a greater international threat from the advocates of violent political Islam.

A collapse or Taliban tilting of the Islamabad regime would require prompt neutralization of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, stockpile of fissile materials, and the means of making more.  Neutralization of these assets and facilities is a non-trivial undertaking. Quite the contrary: It would be a major military and diplomatic challenge.  However global security and stability make the effort an absolute imperative.

There is a chance that cooler, saner minds will prevail.  The Pakistani Army high command is realpolitik enough to see what is at stake with both the blockade (and its rhetorical blanket) and the release of the incriminating video.  If not Leon Panetta personally then certainly the Agency of which he is head is equally rooted in the soil of realism and well understands the implications of too hasty movement by either party in this dispute.

The wild card, even the joker, in the deck is represented by the "progressives" both in the US and Western Europe.  For these people (and it appears President Obama as well), the war in Afghanistan is anathema.  The same groups are the most likely to be loudly horrified by the video of Pakistani infantrymen gunning down civilians--even if it could be proven that each bullet catcher was a card carrying martyr-in-waiting.

The global Left as well as the vocal segment of the easily offended global Muslim community will demand that somebody do something!  Calls for investigation, trials, punishment of the guilty will resound through both new and traditional media.  Fingers will be pointed at the US unless the administration takes swift, certain, and transparent action against the offenders in Pakistan.  Failure to do so, failure to stop the military aid, will be seen as complicity in the crime.

It might get very, very ugly.

This alone is reason for the cooler, saner minds in both Washington and Islamabad to end the contretemps with the utmost speed.  Unless this happens or something else emerges to grab attention, the consequences may be delayed but they will not be denied.

The message for Islamabad is short.  We must hang together in this or we will be hung separately.

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