In addition it can be and has been argued repeatedly that Benjamin Netanyahu is not given to making dramatic give aways. Or, even if the PM was given to a move such as, say, abandoning East Jerusalem to the PA, his right wing coalition partners would pull the plug on his government.
Observers focusing on the PA have noted recurrently that Abbas' government is relatively weak and under constant threat by the gun and Koran wielding folks of Hamas. The reach of the Hamas terror oriented killers was demonstrated vividly with the murder of four Israeli civilians in territory under PA control.
While there is no reason to have a sudden attack of optimism, the pessimistic assessments of the probable outcome of the direct talks do overlook a key consideration or two. The first is that Israel and the PA are faced by a common set of enemies--Iran and Hamas. The second is that the possibility of Iran gaining nuclear weapons constitutes a threat far, far greater than any which might accompany the two state solution, even one which grotesquely favors the PA.
The potential of Iran having its very own "Mahdi Bomb" within the next year or two focused minds in both Israel and the US with a wonderful power. The palpable failure of Mr Obama's much loved outreach program went hand in hand with the equally self-evident inability of the "international community" to halt the spinning centrifuges.
This set of interlocking failures has served to limit the cone of options available to either or both the US and Israel to two: Accommodate themselves to a new global reality; employ force either with or without continued covert interference with the nuclear program and assistance to the political opposition within Iran.
While no one could describe the stance taken by Mr Obama toward Israel and PM Netanyahu in recent weeks as smacking of a love fest, it is a great distance from the flatly hostile attitude exhibited by the Nice Young Man From Chicago a few months back. It is not unsafe to assume that senior members of his administration have finally broken through his hard shell so he can hear and act on the truth regarding Israel and its view of the Iranian bomb.
Somebody (the Geek's money is on Secretaries Clinton and Gates) convinced Mr Obama that Israel cannot for very good reason rely upon the UN or even the US for security in the face of an Iranian existential threat. The president must have been convinced as well of the ground truth that Israel will strike on its own at a time of its choosing with or without US approval or even understanding when the Iranian menace stands ready to attack.
Since the US is Israel's primary source of advanced weapons systems, it is necessary and effective for Israel to maintain high quality relations with the US--as long as doing so does not open Israel to an enhanced probability of becoming "one with Nineveh and Tyre." This dynamic the president must have understood finally gave the US high quality leverage to employ on Israel in support of a primary US policy goal.
Obama wants (desperately needs, is more like it) to bring a peace settlement between Israel and the PA even if this is not synonymous with the oft referenced "comprehensive Mideast peace." Achieving this goal requires Israel marching to American music, and, as both Israelis and their American interlocutors well know, this can be very unpleasant for the marchers. Only the Israeli need for American support--and action--in the event force must be employed to stop the Iranian bomb makers can serve to make the music easier for Israelis to listen to.
In short conditions were ripe for a trade. The US would agree to take all necessary measures to stop the Iranian bomb. Israel would agree to make major concessions in a genuine search for a peace with the PA.
The PA at this point should be dancing in the streets. Events seem to have given the Abbas' coterie the whip hand. That would be true were it not for Hamas.
Hamas and the PA are locked in an existential struggle. Only one will be the sure enough, bona fide, genuine government of Palestine. The increasing totality of the struggle for ultimate power has gone too far to allow compromise. Even if Hamas suddenly dropped its demands for supremacy, ended its increasingly passionate embrace of Islamist purity and political Islam, there is no chance that Israel or the US or even the majority of the EU would go along with the apparent changing of the tiger's stripes.
The PA needs the understanding, support, and assistance of Israel, the US and the EU if it is to survive the challenge being offered by Hamas and its sponsor, Iran. The enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, but he is my vital supporter. Or, so a majority of PA supporters would agree.
This governing imperative implies that the PA will not seek the maximum concessions from Israel--at least not for real or for long. No one in the PA is really comfortable with the two state solution; most or all would prefer a one state approach--one state where Jews would be a minority from the start-up. This attitude is even more pronounced within the ranks of Hamas.
Abbas and others at the peak of the PA have long learned the limits of ideological extremism. All have found out the hard way--by experience--that being extreme may make for great TV but pays off very little when the klieg lights are switched off.
Being born again pragmatists of a sort, Abbas and the rest want to come away with a state, with their jobs intact, and with a reasonable prospect for a long life. Coming to terms with Israel in a way acceptable to the Israelis is the way to go. If necessary (and it will be), the US can sweeten the deal and soften any adverse impact with the cushioning of choice in much of the world--cash.
Right now the "correlation of forces" (to use that maximum fine old Soviet term) favors "let's make a deal." The interlocking bogymen of Iran and Hamas add the necessary fear. The needs of President Obama open the floodgates of American largess. The Israelis need a green light (and, in the best case, a cooperative US attack) to abate the Iranian menace--or at least delay it until internal events can result in regime change. The PA needs a future without Hamas bomb throwers.
Maybe a soupcon of optimism is not completely unjustified. Well, maybe, but don't bet the ranch.
ADMIN NOTE: The Geek invites, welcomes and will post all on topic comments. Spam commentary has resulted in defensive measures being put in place. The Geek apologizes for any consequent frustration.
No comments:
Post a Comment