Iran Goes Fishing

The long established but well concealed linkage between Iran and both al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan has received a little bit of light in recent days.  The US announced the capture back on 18 December of an officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp by Special Forces troops.  The man, the first officer yet captured or killed in Afghanistan, was described as a "facilitator" of weapons transfer to Taliban.

This happy event was enlarged upon by the Times of London in a report picked up by Fox.  The report focused on the recent release of al-Qaeda personnel from Iranian prisons where they had been held for some years.  The intent is that the released heavyweights will go to the FATA in order to rebuild the shattered remnants of the old al-Qaeda structure.

The effort to assist al-Qaeda has been underway for several months but escalated recently perhaps in a bid to gain the release of an Iranian diplomat kidnapped and held by either al-Qaeda or its close affiliate, the Haqqani network.  Regardless of precise motives, the release of the captives will be a booster for al-Qaeda given the losses it has suffered at the hands of the US forces in the past year.  It may even be enough to breathe new life into the rather moribund organization.

The Iranians are playing a double game--as usual.  On the one hand, Tehran has agreed to hold joint military exercises with both Turkey and Afghanistan.  On the other, the mullahs have decided to increase their support for Taliban.  The ball is in Karzai's court on whether or not to accept as bona fide the Iranian pretenses of friendship and goodwill.  The ball is in our court on whether or not to add the Iranian hostility in Afghanistan to the set of issues to be considered at the next meeting between the P5+1 and Iran early next year.

The Iranian government may have made its real inclination clear with the recent and unexplained ban on fuel exports to Afghanistan.  Of course, the Iranians could justify this move by referencing their domestic lacks in this area, but to do so would be to tell the West that the sanctions are hurting badly enough to undercut their diplomatic charm offensive directed at Kabul.

The best indication that Taliban is joining al-Qaeda on the ropes comes from the UN.  In its most recent report, the organization concludes that not only has the number of civilian casualties directly attributable to the actions of the insurgents increased, it now accounts for three out of every four civilians killed or wounded.  This development is not accidental.  It is a matter of policy.  Deliberate choice.

As the US military pressure has increased and the Afghan National Forces gained competence, the insurgents have been forced to seek the softest of targets: civilians.  The use of suicide bombers against civilian targets has grown in direct relation to the losses of territory and combat power at the hands of the coalition forces.  So to has the use of roadside bombs, which by their nature are more lethal to civilians than military forces.

The intent insofar as there is one is to spread demoralization among the civilian population.  But, the use of similar tactics in past insurgencies has redounded to the credit of the security forces.  Civilians resent being killed or injured, and they tend to demonstrate their resentment against those who do the killing and not the security forces for having failed to offer perfect safety.  The increased formation of ad hoc and not really legal home security forces by villagers throughout the more risky portions of Afghanistan show the same dynamic is present there.

The Iranians have been fairly pinched in their attempt to fish without a license in the troubled waters of Afghanistan.  The Obama administration would be well advised to use the information contained in the intelligence community to hold the feet of the mullahs to the fire.  To allow the positive proof of Iranian hostility to stability in Afghanistan to go by without effective exploitation would be worse than a tragedy.  It would be a blunder of great magnitude.

Next to North Korea, Iran is the world's greatest troublemaker.  No opportunity to push back must be allowed to go past unused.  The capture of the al Quds officer by American forces provides the necessary hook on which to hang all the information which can be released without peril to sources and methods regarding Iranian malfeasance in Afghanistan.

We have been handed an early Christmas present by the Spec Force men.  Unwrap it and use it--quickly and to the max.  Doing so would be a service to peace in the Season of Peace.