Nine Years, Two Wars, Billions Of Bucks--Why Aren't We Safer?

About a week ago Foreign Policy published the results of a survey of acknowledged experts on countering terrorism, particularly terror practiced by advocates of violent political Islam, the greatest threat currently abroad in the world.  The consensus was the US and the West generally were only marginally safer today than on 9/11.  If anything, in the Geek's estimate, the consensus errs on the optimistic side.

While there is little doubt that the original Big Black Turban of violent political Islam, al-Qaeda, is weaker today than on 9/11, this in no way ensures enhanced security against the threats of the bigger beast, political Islam.  The proliferation of both Baby al-Qaedas and lone wolf actors underscores this dreary contention.

The FP collection of experts fingered Pakistan as the fountainhead of risk.  With this the Geek is in complete agreement.  Pakistan is well on the road to failed state status.  Unless the elite of government, army, and intelligence service take very swift and exceptionally determined action to suppress the growing wave of violent political Islam, it is quite probable that the country will achieve collapse within five years and possibly as few as two.  No amount of US bribe money will alter that trajectory absent an unprecedented upsurge of political will by government, army, ISI, and supporting elites.

The most dangerous short-term adversaries of the US and the West live and work in Pakistan.  Not simply in the FATA under the stare and menace of the CIA operated Predators but in much of the country.  These men, the planners, organizers and commanders of operations such as the Mumbai attack or the failed Times Square bombing are existing right under the eyes of Pakistani authorities without any perceptible hindrance.  This melancholy reality is indicative of the schizophrenic stasis of the Pakistani government.

Most of the FP expert panel pointed at the Great Adventure in Regime Change in Iran as the single greatest mistake in the so-called global war on terror.  Regardless of any abstract merits, the overthrow of Saddam and the ensuing long and bloody war were a major diversion from the goal of suppressing violent political Islam in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  The Iraqi detour assured the US did not finish the task in Afghanistan or effectively lean on the Pakistanis back then to work with us in the FATA for joint benefit.

In addition to the direct military effects of the Iraqi detour, the Great Adventure in Regime Change served to cause splits in the ranks of NATO and the West generally.  In the US it gave rise to an alienated anti-war movement on the Left with consequences which have progressively sapped the political will of the American public to continue the present war of national survival.

The invasion of Iraq, the consequent war there, along with the necessary military emphasis in Afghanistan have not only provided both impetus and breathing room for the practitioners of violent political Islam to proliferate, recruit, co-opt, and escalate horizontally, they have caused a paucity of imagination in the counterterror elements of the Agency, the State Department, and Pentagon.  While some of the armed actions such as the UAV attacks in the FATA and the nocturnal raids in Afghanistan have been effective, they are effective but not sufficient as a French expert noted in the FP piece.

The ultimate defeat of violent political Islam will not come from military means--no matter how critical these may be in the short to mid-term.  Nor will it come from economic development and aid projects.  It will not come from futile exercises in nation-building as has been undertaken in Afghanistan.

The ultimate defeat of violent political Islam can only come from the ranks of Muslims.  It can come only when a school of Islam rises to counter effectively the Wahhibist inspired and rooted jihadis.  The wellspring of violent political Islam is in the Wahhibist or Salifist understandings of Islam even if that was not the intent of those who sponsored the exportation of these schools of belief to places far from their locales of birth.

An excellent candidate for an Islamic response to an Islamic threat is found in the Sufi interpretation of the common religion.  As noted in previous posts Sufism was predominant in Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Punjab Pakistan until quite recently.  It is a view of Islam which is introspective, ecstatic, mystical, and totally disengaged from politics.  It focuses on the development of inner peace and harmony which in turn brings about community harmony in an atmosphere of respect and tolerance.  Beyond that Sufism is emotionally engaging and satisfying in its liturgies and rituals--at least as much so as shouting "Death to ..." in the streets or stoning women.

It is surprising that none of the behemoths of our national instruments of power have discovered Sufism as it exists today in the challenging theaters of current operations.  The seed exists everywhere the threat does currently.  It is only necessary to water and fertilize the Sufi seed so that a new, more peaceful Islamic majority can grow over time.

No special magic is needed to do this job.  The clandestine cultivation of indigenous Sufis can be conducted by the normal tradecraft means, the standard protocols which existed to the Geek's knowledge decades ago and presumably still exist.  All that is needed is the wit and will to look beyond the usual means of force and foreign aid, the wit and will to go outside of the box of conventional wisdom.

It may take a generation or more to see final success in this purely Muslim approach to a purely Muslim threat but it is a low risk, low cost, and high payoff strategy that merits serious consideration and rigorous undertaking.  We may be lucky and find a few really charismatic Sufi clerics who will survive the assassination attempts and prevail.  But, the alternative is stark.

The stark alternative is simply that within twenty years we in the West will have lost to the bomb wielding Thugs of the Koran.  The consensus of the FP experts is that the US or Europe will suffer a major terror attack before the year is out.  Their pessimistic view also foresees a Mumbai II operation in the not too distant future.  The Geek is equally dismal in his view.

Beyond the next year the correlation of forces favors the advocates of violent political Islam.  The Western and American elites have lost faith in themselves and their cultures.  The people of both the US and Western Europe are sick of the Long War.  The economic collapse lingers with no defining end in sight, which reduces morale and political will all the more.

Time is on the side of the Bad Guys.  The only alternative to defeat is to try something very new--set a Muslim to defeat a Muslim.  It is worth a try.  Better by far than defeat.