The Quiet Debacle--Latin America And The US

George W. Bush and the neocon ninnies have manufactured a number of noisy foreign policy debacles around the world. Obscured by the noise elsewhere, the Deep Thinkers of the current administration have engineered yet another train wreck in the making.

This one covers a good chunk of the southern half of our hemisphere.

You know, the area we declared off-limits to those icky-poo Europeans with our long time axis mundi of foreign policy, the Monroe Doctrine. The place Dan Quayle was referring to when he said he was sorry he hadn't studied Latin so he could talk to Latin Americans in their native tongue.

It seems that while we have been so busy changing regimes in the Mideast and Northwest Asia, there has been a bit of regime change in South America. In keeping with any number of pronouncements by presidents of both parties over the past twenty years or so, the regime changes in South America have been accomplished by more or less democratic processes. By definition, then, the elections and their outcomes are above reproach.

Beyond reproach perhaps but certainly not without danger to US interests both in the region and here at home.

Elections in Venezuela, Bolivia and Paraguay have brought to power regimes that have Yankee bashing as their chief stock-in-trade. The Geek has no problems with pulling the gringo's beard. It has long been a favorite activity everywhere south of the Rio Grande. Much of the time a little or even not so little kick in Uncle Sam's tush has been justified by the behavior of the Colossus of the North. However, the regimes in the three countries just listed are going far beyond the usual fun game of kick-the-Yanqui-in-the-ass.

The reason for this out-of-bounds call?

Simple. One word simple. Here's the word. Iran.

For those who have argued that the US could contain and deter Iran should the mullahocracy ever attain its goal of the "Mahdi bomb," there is something to be learned here. The lesson is short, blunt, unpleasant and convincing. The Iranians have already leaped over any conceivable line in the sand we might have thought of drawing. They are in a position to deter our deterrence.

You look confused. The Geek can see you scratching your chin as you think long and hard about the unlikely linkage of Islamist eschatologist mullahs and hard left LatAm socialists.

Yeah, the proposition does seem a bit odd at first sight. But, the politics of pariahdom make for the most intriguing of bedfellows. (And for those who might question the notion of secularist socialists being accepted by Islamists as allies because of religious considerations, put your minds at rest. There are no prohibitions of Muslim-infidel alliances of a temporary sort when such benefit the cause of Allah.)

While Hugo Chavez has occupied most of our (public) attention with his cozy embrace of the emissaries of Tehran, he is far from alone in the arena. Evo Morales, the one-time coke farmer turned politician has ordered that Iranians be allowed to travel to and from Bolivia without the necessity of a visa. This change of policy came in conjunction with an announcement that Iran was committed to assisting Bolivia in the development of the natural gas deposits in the restive eastern portion of the country.

The Geek viewed the ousting of the Drug Enforcement Administration's activities from Bolivia with equanimity. It was, from the Geek's understanding of Bolivian sensibilities, an action which was both long overdue and well-justified in the minds of many Bolivians both elite and hoi polloi. Accusing the American ambassador of mucking about in Bolivian internal affairs such as the recent election was likewise a non-event. Such accusations are both politics-as-usual and often quite true.

Facilitating the free movement of Iranians is completely different. Evo Morales, like his ideological elder brother, Hugo Chavez, has assured the al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as personnel from the Ministry of Intelligence and Security will have the capacity to come on in and pursue the Iranian agenda. (This agenda, it should be recalled, includes murderous acts such as the bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina fourteen years ago.)

The visa-free travel rights is complemented in the two countries by Iranian furnished Spanish language television programming to Bolivia and a direct air link between Tehran and Caracas via Damascus. Then there are the increasing financial and economic ties between the all-but-bankrupt mullahocracy and the twin laboratories in socialism Los Indios style.

Comes now Paraguay. This is a country which is normally well under the US radar since it is not a major player in the "War on Drugs." Paraguay's new president, Fernando Lugo Mendez, has been hailed in Iranian state controlled media as a fellow "enemy of the Great Satan."

"Why?" You ask.

Because President Mendez named a fellow named Alejandro Hamed Franco as the country's new Foreign Minister.

"So what?" You counter.

The "so what" is that Sr Franco is a well-known, long-time sympathiser, supporter and fund raiser of and for Hezbollah. Hezbollah, which is the big noise in Lebanon and past kicker of Israeli butt, is an Iranian proxy.

ForMin Franco is such a big supporter of Hezbollah and has been so indiscreet in his activities on behalf of the group that he is on the US State Department's "no visa" and "no fly" lists. This will make it hard for the Paraguayan foreign minister to attend sessions of the UN or meetings of the Organisation of American States at its Washington. D.C headquarters. (Unless, of course, the in-coming administration cuts Sr Franco a major bit of slack.)

Other countries throughout the region may choose to follow the example set by Venezuela, Bolivia and Paraguay. There would be reason for doing so. The US has shamefully but typically ignored South America for years. The focus has been on the Mideast, Africa, Asia while, except for the "War on Drugs" and counterinsurgency efforts in Columbia, the US has turned its back on the Southern portion of this hemisphere.

The "War on Drugs" has also served to alienate folks across the lands to our south. The Geek has never talked to a member of a South American military, diplomatic, intelligence or security component who has been favorably inclined to our "war" being waged on their land, on their citizens, on their economy. When pressed, all the Geek could do was shrug his shoulders and mutter some platitude about American morality and its impact on politics and policy.

The periodic harsh US rhetoric from both governmental personnel and assorted non-governmental entities regarding the inability of various South American governments to be sufficiently "green" in their policies and actions has done nothing to bring those south of the Rio closer together with us who live in the Land Up North. The same may be said regarding our sporadic bouts of seeming xenophobia aimed at those who speak Spanish. And, it may be said of the conditions which wrap themselves around "free trade" agreements and other matters of economic development or the perceived, negative impact of "globalization" and its handmaiden institutions, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

In short, the US has made a complete and virtually inedible hash out of our policies toward Latin America for years now. While the current administration must carry a lot of the water for this very unpleasant reality, there are buckets enough to be borne by the Clinton Administration as well.

Socialism rode to power in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador in large measure on the back of globalization and the indifference shown by the United States to the human costs of this. Socialism and Islamism may not seem to be natural allies, but, as the old cliche has it, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Most assuredly it is time for change in this area of US policy. But, if the lamentable history of US relations with South America is any guide, it ain't coming.

That will be good for the Iranians.

And, very bad for us.

Evo Morales--The Chicken Becomes a Fox

The Geek has to admire a slick job when he sees one. Bolivian president Evo Morales has pulled off one super slick trick. No doubt about it.

Morales, Bolivia's first Indio president has signed a recall election bill into law. Pushed by his "white" opponents who hallucinated that the soccer playing one time peasant had been weakened by the results of the Santa Cruz provincial autonomy referendum on 4 May could be removed from office through a recall vote.

The bill which Morales signed provides for himself and all nine provincial governors to face recall in a special election on 10 August. So far, so good. Or so it seems.

The devil, of course, was hiding in the details. Apparently so blinded by the glorious vision of removing the uppity Indian from office, the opposition didn't look closely at the precise wording of the new legislation.

To be removed from office Morales or any of the nine governors must receive a "no" vote total that is greater in both absolute numbers and percentage of the vote cast than the votes they received in the last general election.

The Geek tips his hat to the shrewd high school dropout president.

Get a grip on this. Morales received approximately 1.5 million votes, or more than fifty-three percent of those cast. To be removed from office the "no" vote total must be greater than 1.5 million and the percentage must exceed the 53.7 percent.

There ain't no way that's going to happen.

Some of the governors aren't so fortunate. Take, for example, Jose Luis Paredes the governor of La Paz and an opponent of Morales. He won the Morales supporting state with thirty-eight percent of the vote. If thirty-nine percent of the voters check the "no" box, Paredes is out and the llama herder turned president gets to appoint a replacement.

Sweet?

You bet. There is no way that Morales is going to wake up sad come morning on the 11th of August.

Slickness may be enough to keep Morales in office. It may even be enough to remove pesky governors who don't march to the tune of Evo's Populist Band.

It isn't enough to assure the best future for Bolivia. It isn't even enough to give Morales a good write up in future history texts.

Morales, like his colleagues Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa, is a populist. He came to power through the democratic process as did the other two. He, along with Chavez and, to some extent, Correa, doesn't like globalization.

More to the point, in common with the other two is the latest round of a long standing South American political disease.

The name of that disease?

Economic populism.

It is amazing how little so many South Americans fail to learn from their continent' political history.

Economic populism has a long record of abject (and often bloody) failure through the length and breadth of the continent. The narrative is always the same. It is always based on ethno-nationalism and a hyped sense that "we" (the locals, the working class, Los Indios, the peasants) are being heartlessly exploited by "them" (the ricos, the Norteamericanos, the "whites.")

The populist demagogue rouses fear and anger. Fear and anger produce enthusiasm and votes.

Badda-bing! The populist is elected. Ain't democracy grand?

Comes now the redistribution of land, the nationalization of basic industry, of financial institutions, the confiscation of wealth. Now the landless will have land. The jobless will have jobs. The poor will have wealth.

In the short term everything will look good as the history of Juan Peron in Argentina shows,

Eventually the wheels fall off the Great Socialist Vehicle. Inflation. Hyperinflation. Loss of agricultural and industrial productivity. Systemic inefficiency. Infrastructure collapse. An end to investment both foreign and domestic. Middle class flight.

The process used to take years, even decades. Now it can occur in months given the speed with which information moves and decisions made.

The Bolivian Slicky-Boy may be lucky. Lord knows, the ex-paratrooper Chavez has been.

Morales' running buddy, the inventor of "Socialism For the 21st Century" Hugo Chavez, has been a favorite son of Lady Luck. The rocketing price of oil has buoyed the more-or-less democratically elected semi-authoritarian.

While as many of the middle class as can get visas and plane tickets to Panama or points even more to the north, while the production of Venezuela's oil fields slides due to loss of skill and degradation of plant, Chavez has been able to fund the FARC insurgents in Columbia, make wink and nudge agreements with the mullahocracy in Iran and sign contracts for two gigabucks worth of Russian weapons.

Will Morales be so fortunate?

Bolivian natural gas is critical to both Argentina and Brazil. At least for the moment.

But how long will that last?

Large hydrocarbon deposits have been discovered in the waters of Brazil's Exclusive Economic Zone. With foreign direct investment and co-production agreements in the offing, Brazil will not only be able to meet its own needs but become a major exporter.

Assuming that the Brazilians do not engage in another of their recurrent flights of economic populism, the market forces will work in Brazil's favor. The country already has a firm industrial base and a fair amount of indigenous capital. Exportation of hydrocarbon, particularly natural gas, will enhance not only Brazil but countries such as Argentina who can use the resource beneficially.

For the market to work the context must be stable and predictable. This means that excesses of democracy must be avoided. It also means that the region must be free from both violence and threats of violence.

Here Evo Morales the current Fox of the Andes may be out foxing himself and his fellow Bolivians. By linking himself ideologically with Hugo Chavez who is shaping up as the The Continental Thug, Morales may be helping to assure the very instability which will undercut the potential of regional economic prosperity.

Take a look at history, Presidente Morales. Look at Argentina. At Juan Peron and the lingering effects of the Peronistas. Take a look at Mexico. Take a close look at what has happened recently in Mexico with the lack of foreign investment in the oilfields.

Take a long, hard look at history and think. Is this really in the best interests of Bolivia?

True, globalization is not an undiluted good (pace Alan Greenspan) and the "whites" have not been without major flaw, but is heavy handed, short-sighted seizure of land and resources the best way to provide the best future for all Bolivians?

Economic populism is a great way to get power. It is a piss-poor way to run a country.

A Roosting Chicken Named Evo Morales

"The worst enemy of humanity is US capitalism. That is what provokes uprisings like ours. If the entire world doesn't acknowledge that nation states are not providing even minimally for health, education and nourishment, then fundamental human rights are being violated." So crows the rooster of Bolivia's Los Indios not only on his successful campaign for the presidency, but on an almost weekly basis for the past two years.

Evo Morales, a soccer playing former grower of coca, is, if anything, restrained in his view of US economic and foreign policy compared to Hugo Chavez. The motor-mouthed Venezuelan president is not only noted for insulting personalities as disparate as SecState Rice and the King of Spain but also for a unique ability as a political contortionist leaning simultaneously on the Commissars of Cuba and the Iranian mullahocracy.

In Ecuador, Rafael Correa is a comparatively low-intensity version of Morales and a near midget in the Uncle Sam bashing game next to Chavez. Dr Correa (PhD, economics, University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, 2001) distrusts the market, particularly the US dominated global one as an instrument for the concentration of wealth but apparently appreciates the weaknesses of command economies. Even though the doctor of the dismal science and the political party he created have embraced the Venezuelan notion "Socialism for the 21st Century," Correa does not seem quite so gripless as either one-time paratrooper and originator of "Socialism For the 21st Century," Chavez, or high school dropout Morales.

Nonetheless Correa shares a very important feature with his academically challenged colleague in Bolivia--the view that globalization, including transnational corporations and international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, favor not only the wealthy nations of the world but the domestic "white" elite.

Both believe fervently that the poor, particularly the indigenous descent peoples, Los Indios, get the short and very dirty end of the status and power stick.

The majority of the Bolivian population, unlike that of either Ecuador or Venezuela, is indigenous. Approximately fifty-five percent of all Bolivians are of ingenious ancestry. (In comparison Ecuador's population is sixty-five percent mestizo, twenty-five percent indigenous, seven percent white and three percent African. The CIA World Factbook gives no percentage breakdown for Venezuela.)

The majority of Bolivia's Los Indios lives in the mountains of the country's west. The eastern, resource rich provinces of the country led by Santa Clara are home to most of the "whites" and most of the wealth. Physically, economically and demographically there are two Bolivias. One is high altitude, barren, resource scarce and brown. The other is resource rich, flat and white.

That's the problem. A problem made worse by both globalization and the effects of democracy.

Bolivia has had more than its share of problems. More than 200 coups and counter coups blighted its existence down to 1982 when the first civilian government in recent history was voted into power. The civilian governments for the next quarter century were unable to deal effectively with endemic, deeply-rooted poverty, drug production, social unrest and corruption.

Morales was elected in 2005 by the largest margin on record. His platform was simple: castrate the long entrenched elite, empower the poor, use the hydrocarbon riches of the eastern provinces for the good of all and confiscate large estates for redistribution to the landless.

Utopian?

Quite probably.

Historically as well as today, Bolivia is one of the poorest and least developed countries in South America. Bolivian life expectancy is a full decade less than that in Venezuela. Nearly that many years behind Ecuador. Sixty percent of Bolivians live below the local poverty line. The lowest decile of the population has only three tenths of one percent of the gross national income while the highest decile enjoys nearly fifty percent.

Sounds bad? Right, maybe even obscenely rotten.

Now for the irony behind Morales.

It used to be worse. Much worse.

Bolivia went straight down the economic tubes in the early Eighties. The catastrophe not only brought civilians to power but spurred a series of basic economic, political and legal reforms. These in turn brought a sharp increase of private investment from both domestic and foreign sources. This development was followed, unsurprisingly, by strong economic growth and a drop in the poverty rate.

In short, from the late Eighties through the Nineties the good times (comparatively speaking) were rolling in Bolivia.

The discovery and initial exploitation of large natural gas deposits in the east were seen by the government as well as members of the elite as the cash cow from heaven. Plans were made to milk it by sending the hydrocarbon manna North. These plans died in an outbreak of violent protests and ethnic violence. Los Indios as an ethno-national identity was coming into effective existence during the years 2002-2005.

Evo Morales was not a simple peasant face-in-the-mob during this period of movement consolidation and expansion. No. Not hardly. His face was right out front. Accompanied by his mouth. A highly effective mouth backed by an able enough brain and a simple message.

The essence of the message?

Very simple. Even an illiterate llama herder breathing hard at 11,000 feet could grasp it.

The white guys are at it again. Just like when the Spanish came and ripped off the Incas. Now its the North Americans, the Europeans and their local stooges. They're going to rip us off again! Wealth and land to the poor and landless! Bolivia for the true Bolivians--Los Indios!

The good which globalization arguably had done for Bolivia a few years earlier was wiped out in the minds of the Bolivian majority by fear. Fear of an ethnic "other." The white guy. The guy in a suit carrying a brief case.

The guy who would grind the sons of the Incas further into the the arid rock of the Andes while the money in his brief case would stick to the hands of the "whites" in the flatlands. The "whites" who owned the land over the hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbons which would go to the outside while Los Indios sold trinkets to tourists and shoveled llama poop.

Democracy is wonderful. if you have the numbers behind you. If you have the numbers lined up under the lash of fear and the carrot not of pie-in-the-sky but land and money in the here-and-now.

Also, wouldn't it be lovely (heh-heh) to watch those blanco ricos squirm as we give the orders for a change? Bolivia for Los Indios!

Lovely? You bet.

Nationalise the hydrocarbons! Seize the land! All power to the people! Watch the ricos sweat, bluster and beg!

Join with Venezuela and yank Uncle Sam's beard.

Sounds good. Even some Americans like the idea.

Then came the fourth of May in Santa Clara. The autonomy referendum. The wave of the future?

Perhaps. That's not certain. Not yet.

One thing is certain: Morales thinks so. So does Chavez. And Correa.

Another thing that is sure. It's another foreign policy chicken come home to roost in Foggy Bottom, the White House and Congress.

More on that later