Then There Is (Always) Hugo Chavez

It's hard to know whether to see the humor in Hugo (Mouth of the South) Chavez or not.

On the one hand, the man's gift for verbosity, which was exhibited in all its varied moods not only at the UN General Assembly but in his one-on-one interview with Larry King, provides much ground for amusement.

On the other, this self-anointed successor to Fidel Castro and single-handed inventor of the latest gimcrack form of "socialism" dubbed "Bolivarianism," has shown a definite propensity for authoritarianism, suppression, and regional troublemaking.

His anti-Americanism is rather much standard issue and nothing to be particularly concerned over. His Yankee bashing plays well with his base and helps divert attention from the decaying economy. There is no surprise that Chavez has blamed that on the US as if the US alone has caused the global decline in oil prices, a reality which has hit Venezuela hard.

Chavez needs the myth of the US-as-Empire in order to keep his hands on the levers of power. This is why he has pumped the recent not-quite-finalized agreement between the US and Columbia to allow US drug enforcement efforts including those of the military to be based on seven Columbian military installations into a full-fledged invasion threat.

Without the scary Americans, questions might be asked even among Venezuela's poorest people--Chavez' base--about why he is spending a couple of billion scarce bucks on Russian arms rather than on them. A Latin American dictator has historically possessed two choices if he wanted to stay in power. The first was to proclaim his wedding to the anti-Communist status quo and get the unquestioning support of American administrations one after the other. The second option was to announce often and loudly that "The Yankees are coming! The Marines are landing! The CIA is trying to kill me!"

Chavez took the second route even though the Clinton administration treated him with the kindest of kid gloves and the Obama administration is doing likewise. The man in the middle, George W. Bush, did not and that was a mistake. The animus held by the Bush/Cheney administration for any anti-American leftist with a large mouth provided Chavez with all the material he needed to play repression as self-defense against the empire.

Probably more through preoccupation with matters of larger import than the coming of the Hugo Chavez Bolivarian Revolution, the Clinton White House and State Department rather ignored Venezuela. This was the best course to take. It should have been followed by the Bush/Cheney crew as well, but, blinded as always by neocon ideology, they took the Mouth of the South seriously. By doing so they transformed Chavez from an irrelevancy to a problem.

During the years of Bush/Cheney, Chavez not only tied himself to the aging "socialists" of Cuba and Nicaragua, but to a pair of ideological companions, Ewo Morales, the elected Los Indios jefe grande of Bolivia and Rafael Correa, the US educated economist turned Ecuadorian president. The "Bolivarian Revolution" had two bloodless conquests and now had to be taken seriously as a political force in South America.

The "Bolivarian" movement promises "Socialism For the Twenty-First Century" but so far seems to be the same old sort of destroy-the-bourgeois-raise-the-proletariat approach to economic, social, and political life. The "Bolivarian" version does have the add-on of oil and natural gas which should provide the "socialists" of all three countries with the means to alleviate poverty, end illiteracy, heal the sick, feed the hungry, and generally bring the paradise on Earth which"socialism" always promises those on the bottom of the heap.

In the past the advent of a socialist regime has generally meant the enhancement of government power, the increasing restrictions of customary rights and immunities enjoyed by citizens, a hike in "defense" expenditures, and breathless "revolutionary" oratory in all the official media. This pattern has been followed by all three members of the Chavez headed "Bolivarian" movement.

Social unrest, middle-class flight, and the other usual accessories of a socialist takeover have also been observed in all three countries with Venezuela exhibiting them to the greatest degree. How any of this has benefited the "wretched" of each is unclear. Perhaps saying, "Well, he is one of us, one of the poor, a man of the masses," makes up for continued inequalities of economic and political power and social status. Perhaps it even provides comfort when stores lack milk or other basic commodities. (No, Hugo, the US didn't do that either.)

The US and other Western countries have much to answer for in South America given the overall impact of "globalization" and "de-regulation" on the people in a number of South American countries. The rush to globalization, which started in the Clinton administration and continued with some acceleration under its successors, did much damage to those least able to absorb it throughout much of South America.

It is not surprising that many accepted that change, radical change, was called for in the wake of "privatization" and its handmaiden "globalization." It is unfortunate, and for the US a potentially major problem that the radical change taken brought ambitious strongmen typified by Hugo Chavez to power.

Chavez has established relations with both Iran and its proxy Hezbollah so as to establish outposts of state sponsored Islamist jihadism in the Western Hemisphere--which is a threat compared to which the supposed threat posed by Communist Cuba pales into deserved insignificance. He has clear ambitions of becoming some sort of leader in the global South.

The recently concluded Second South America-Africa Summit held in Venezuela and graced by such as Colonel Gaddafi and Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is a fine demonstration of this. It is easy, quite tempting really, to toss off this grandiose meeting as being irrelevant.

The easy temptation must be resisted. There is quite a bit of barely concealed frustration, pent up hostility, resident in both South America and Africa. The totem of victim status is waved quickly, easily, and with great effect by leaders from these regions. The message of both Chavez and Gaddafi that the "imperial nations" owe compensation for the presumed exploitation of their colonial adventures has wide appeal. The increasing populations and decreasing prices for agricultural and extracted commodities have combined to generate increasing poverty and its concomitants, resentment and envy in many places in both continents.

Hugo Chavez has shown a real ability at exploiting and capitalizing upon latent resentments, unsuppressed envy, and hardly covert hatred. He is young, ambitious beyond measure, and highly able. He is more of a regional politician than Fidel Castro ever was. His internal politics and external diplomacy shows that.

Managing the problems and mitigating the potential threat presented by Chavez is a genuine challenge for the Obama administration and State Department. Benign neglect will no longer suffice as it did in the days of Bill Clinton. The opposition of the Bush/Cheney period would be counterproductive. What remains is the middle path of accepting Chavez as a fact on the ground while letting him know politely but unmistakably that there are lines he cannot cross without severe consequences.

Hugo Chavez said both at the UNGA and on the Larry King broadcast that he wants to be treated with respect, the respect of an equal. Take him at his word. Let him know there are limits and what the limits are. Let him know what the consequences will be if he violates the limits.

After all, friends treat friends with honesty, Hugo.

They're Speaking Arabic In Mexico

The MSM are not up to speed on this story. Nor are many within We the People. It is, however, a tale with many implications--none of them pleasant for us.

The Iranian supported and to a large extent controlled terrorist entity Hezbollah is hard at work in Mexico. The Boys In Turbans are active in establishing working relations with the narcotrafficking cartels South of the Border. With success.

The increasingly warm relations between Hugo (The Mouth of the South) Chavez and the mullahs of Iran are disturbing in and of themselves. The establishment of a banking arrangement between Iran and Venezuela serves as a ready conduit for the increasing activities of Hezbollah not only in that country but throughout South and Central America, including Mexico. The shipments of weapons and equipment from Iran to Venezuela are not for the benefit of the latter's armed forces. (With a two gigabuck order on Russian books and funded by generous Russian loans, the New Model Army of Chavez has no need for assistance from Iran.)

No. The weapons, the explosive manufacturing equipment, the money are for the use of Hezbollah as it penetrates Latin America. They are for the use of the Party of God as it establishes firm connections with the cartels and narco-insurgents from Peru to Colombia to Mexico.

A month ago the tip of the Hezbollah iceberg was revealed in New York with the indictment of one Jamal Yousef on arms trafficking charges. Yousef is alleged to have sought to sell a variety of "military grade" arms to a person he believed to be a representative of the Columbian narco-insurgent group FARC. Within the indictment some very interesting and disturbing points can be found.

Hezbollah maintains active operations in Mexico which are directly connected to both weapons and drug smuggling. The activities are not limited to any one Mexican cartel but are spread among at least three such as to cover the entire border between Mexico and the US.

The Turban Crew is willing and able to join forces with any local narco-insurgent group anywhere in Latin America which is seeking to destabilize the status quo regime. This includes Mexico where at least a couple of the cartels have expanded their goals beyond drug smuggling or mere crime to political ends.

As the connections between Hezbollah and the assorted Mexican narco-trafficking cartels expand so also does the ability of Hezbollah to insert weapons, lethal materials, and personnel into the US. This potential expands as the Mexican cartels extend their operations throughout Central and South America. In short, Hezbollah has tied into a "one stop shop" for smuggling any sort of deadly goody as well as the necessary personnel into Yanqui Land.

As Hugo Chavez grows ever more cozy with the Iranians--and his intentions in that direction are quite clear as is indicated by his agreement to provide Iran with 200,000 barrels per day of refined petroleum products--the potential of Hezbollah to conduct operations throughout the Western Hemisphere grows in tandem. This strongly implies that the Obama administration had best take a much stronger approach with the Chavez regime.

Mexico is a happy hunting ground for an anti-American entity with a lot of money and a firm agenda. Hezbollah is such a group. Its cooperation with the narco-trafficking cartels boosts the threat these represent to the stability of the Mexican government. With backing from the Chavez regime, which is not noted for having small ambitions, the possibility of the current instability in Mexico increasing is enhanced.

This reality implies that the Obama administration had best take a stronger approach to assisting Mexico. It also implies even more strongly that the Mexican government had best reevaluate its hyper-nationalist stance regarding foreign investment in and development of the new off-shore oil discoveries as well as rebuilding the decayed infrastructure of the older fields. Oil is the answer to much of Mexico's current difficulties of poverty and lacks in both physical and human infrastructure requirements. But, foreign money and expertise is necessary for this to be accomplished.

There is a powerful possibility that Mexico will experience in the not too distant future a combination of Islamist jihadist and narco-trafficking groups not dissimilar to that which is seen in Afghanistan. It is not that Islam qua Islam is important in the Mexican venue but rather that the political goals of the Islamist jihadist group intersects with the goals of both the narco-traffickers and quite probably the expansive goals of Hugo Chavez.

A political agenda predicated on fear and loathing of the US has produced strange bedmates in the past. It is doing so today. It can do so to an even greater extent in the near future. There is no bright and shining line which can be drawn between the Islamist jihadists of Hezbollah, the profit and power driven goals of the narco-traffickers, and the hemispheric delusions of Chavez.

Far from there being any inherent bars between such different partners, there are strong imperatives for a tight marriage of convenience. Over time the marriage might even be strengthened by the appeal of Islamist jihadist ideology for young men with a cultural background of machismo and a pervasive sense of present day hopelessness--and the warrior ethos of Islam can make for converts, floods of converts.

Religion, particularly a religion which provides emotional release, a sense of personal worth, and control of destiny has always been a key factor in the social and cultural dynamics of Latin America. As traditional Catholicism lost its appeal by an over-identification with the ruling elites, alternatives such as Liberation Theology and, more recently, Charismatic and Evangelical forms of Protestant Christianity have risen. Arguably, and using Africa as the model case, Islam, particularly in its Islamist forms, can have a similar or even greater attraction to the marginalized, disenfranchised, dis-empowered, and ambitious young men of the region.

Yes sir, folks, it's one more foreign policy challenge for the Nice Young Man From Chicago and his Secretary of State, The Not So Nice Older Woman From New York. And, it is a hell of a lot closer to both places than is Afghanistan.

With Only A Left Wing It's Easy To Go Hysterical

Hugo Chavez, the 21st Century's equivalent of Fidel Castro, is pumping his reputation as the Joe Biden of the Andes. His latest case of rhetorical dyspepsia alleges that the US is secretly building an invasion force in Columbia and will soon cross into the Motherland of the Bolivarian Revolution.

Hugo's junior partner in the Neo-Castroite Renewal, Rafael Correa, jefe grande of Ecuador, echoes the his patron's anxieties but in a more sotto voce manner. The Hero of Los Indios must be feeling disappointed that the hated and dreaded Yankees have not gone home after he rejected renewal of the American lease on an Ecuadorian base for counter-narcotics surveillance flights.

Now Hugo loves to bloviate. He loves to excoriate. He loves to bluster and threaten. That is probably why he likes dealing with Iran. Those folks are just like him at heart.

No doubt Hugo particularly loves to play the victim role in a self-created, self-written drama featuring the US as Chief Villain and Columbia as the Villain's Assistant. That is why the finding of elderly Swedish anti-armor rockets in the hands of FARC was simply one more base plot created by the imperialists without a shred of truth.

While these aging AT-4 ATGMs are scarcely "sophisticated," they would have been of some assistance to the FARC guerrillas and drug traffickers. There is no arguing that the missiles did come from Venezuela. The Swedes have confirmed the devices were sold to that country. But, no one, not even Uncle Sam and the Colombian government are saying that Hugo was in on the deal. There is simply too much shrinkage from the military arsenals in Venezuela to be sure of that.

On the other hand there is simply too much evidence that both Chavez and Correa would be thrilled by a FARC success in "reactionary" Colombia. And, that both have worked assiduously to bring that thrill into reality.

While Colombia has a real, documentable reason to be peeved with both of these hard left leaning leaders, Bogota has been remarkably calm in the face of repeated provocation. Not so with Sr Chavez and Sr Correa.

Chavez has "frozen" relations with Colombia one more time. As a result the Colombian peso fell nearly two percent since the country's (legal) trade depends much on Venezuela, its second largest trading partner.

Not content with that, Chavez has raised the noise level with his expressed fears that the Marines, or at least the New Mexican National Guard was coming--soon. Hugo needs to take a Xanax or two, perhaps review his collection of Condy Rice photos. He needs to get a grip.

The US is in the process of negotiating with Colombia for the use of three air bases for use in surveillance flights targeted on countering drugs and insurgency within Colombia. This is not out of line considering our six billion dollar investment between 2001 and 2008 in assisting Colombia fight the drug runners and their insurgent sidekicks within the country. If the fourteen hundred or so military and civilian DoD personnel in Colombia constitute an invasion force, then El Presidente Chavez ought to reconsider his country's defense capacities.

Anyway it is not a done deal. There are elements in the Colombian Senate which want to use the proposal as a lever to get a free trade treaty out of the US. To date the Progressive Caucus has opposed this averring human rights abuses on the part of the Colombian security forces, an accusation which is far from baseless. Or there may be other deal sweeteners being considered by these Colombian politicos.

(Recall that Colombia has a long history of wanting more to go through with a seemingly done deal. That is why Theodore Roosevelt created a country, Panama, in order to get his canal dug over the obdurate attitude of a handful of Colombian senators.)

Sr Chavez and Sr Correa need to stop blustering, quit the victim game. Both have been consolidating one-man-rule states. Both are facing very real internal problems. Both have large segments of their population which are not supportive of the "Bolivarian Revolution." Both are ineptly presiding over economic degradation, political repression, and social dislocation.

All of the diversions, from Honduras to the new Colombian fracas, do not alter the basic reality one little bit. The "Bolivarian Revolution" in common with all too many leftist experiments, including the one in progress in the US, leads down a rough and rutted road. Shouting, "victim!" will not keep the wheels on when the ruts get too deep and the bumps too rough.

And, that's a fact, Jack.

Hugo Chavez Falls In Line

Apparently taking his cue from the mullahs and re-elected president of Iran as well as the Dear Leader of North Korea, Hugo Chavez, the wannabe Castro of the 21st Century, has entered the Bluster-For-All-You're-Worth Festival of International Bad Actors. Reportedly the semi-dictator of Venezuela has ordered his military to stand by for a possible intervention in Honduras.

The Mullahs Best Friend In LatAm has announced he will do whatever he can to "abort" the military coup which displaced Honduran president and Chavez' buddy, Manuel Zeylaya, early today. Chavez also warned the Honduran military that any attempt to harm or kidnap his ambassador in that country will be met by force.

Chavez must feel he is riding a high of (probably manufactured) public support given the demonstration by his supporters against the only ant-government TV station still on the air in the oil powered new socialist paradise of South America. It might be mentioned that the latest piece of Chavez posturing comes on the heels of the Obama administration's decision to put our mission in Caracas back on the ambassadorial level and only weeks after President Obama poured love and smiles on the far-left leaning and profoundly anti-American Chavez.

Can we say, "Spanner in the works?"

The rhetorical tirade launched as is usual on nationwide television by Chavez calls into question the value of Mr Obama's search for "engagement" in lieu of the previous administration's confrontational approach to the chest-thumping former paratrooper turned president morphed into dictator. In this context in might be mentioned that Chavez hinted darkly that the US was somehow behind the military coup.

Hugo's suspicions run counter to the reality that the US has worked to stave off the coup over the past several days. While the Honduran president is no friend of the US, there is no longing in Washington for regime change. Even if such is the desire of the Honduran political elite.

The deposed president is the primary proximate cause of his own involuntary plane ride to Costa Rica. In an attempt to emulate the success of his supporter and role model, Hugo Chavez, Sr. Zelaya sought to ram through a referendum which would have changed the Honduran constitution approved some twenty years ago so as to allow him to run for re-election when his term ends next January. The referendum was declared illegal by the Honduran congress and supreme court.

The position taken by the Honduran congress and supreme court represent the political elite which has never had much, if any, use for Zelaya. His support comes from the non-elte in the country. There is no doubt that the lot of the average Honduran is not good. Crime, particularly homicide as well as drug traffic, particularly cocaine, run rampant in the country, which was recently ranked by the World Bank well below the median of 209 countries rated in security.

The reduction of remittances from Honduran illegal workers in the US has had a dramatic, even devastating, impact on the nation's economy. And, the average Honduran, elite or not, is very well aware of the realities in which they live.

So also is the ambitious Sr Zeyala who, like the majority of wannabe dictators of the left, wants to be a transformational figure--or at least the Big Enchilada. Riding the wave of discontent rising from the lower, alienated, and hopeless portions of the population is the time-honored way to gain power for life. This is what lies behind the proposal for the referendum.

It is both unfortunate and predictable that the Honduran army which, like the majority of armies through the sweep of LatAm history is the protector of both the privileged and the status quo, intervened as it did. Pressure from the Organization of American States and the US might reverse the coup. (Note: the US is far and away Honduras' largest trading partner.) But, the Chavez saber rattling will not.

If the Great Man of the Bolivarian Revolution has any grip on reality he is well aware of this. After all, how is he going to project force into Honduras? What will his Russian supplied naval vessels do if the US Navy interposes itself? Come in shooting? Or, will he use the nation's airborne forces? And, if the US says, "No," then what?

OK, Hugo, the Geek agrees you are trying to get up there with Iran and North Korea. But, you have a long, long way to go. Iran is a genuine and growing threat to regional and, potentially, world peace. North Korea is a well established player of global extortion with a degree of resolve behind its apparent lunacy which is both well-honed and developed.

Venezuela, however, under the inspired revolutionary leadership of Hugo Chavez, is not even into the minor leagues of global troublemaker. That may change given the regime's ties with Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as its willingness and ability to foster and protect the international traffic in illegal drugs.

But, for the moment, the Chavez regime would be best off building its capacity for future bad acting and keeping a lid on premature bluster. There is nothing more damaging to a regional problem child than having its poor manners greeted by derisive laughter and not the sound of knees knocking.

Cuba Isn't The Distraction--Venezuela Is

President Obama still in pursuit of a diplomatic success after failing to find one in Europe and presenting a typical performance of show over substance in Mexico is hoping for a change of fortune at the Summit of the Americas. It is because the president's quest for a diplomatic coup on the level of the parting of the waters that members of his traveling circus have expressed a desire that Cuba's absence from the conflab in Port of Spain not prove a "distraction."

In spite of the more-than-welcome and long overdue minor change in US-Cuban relations announced by Obama a few days ago and Raul Castro's spring-loaded, favorable response, the always-open mouth of Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez is working (that is to say, talking) overtime to assure Cuba is the central focus of the Summit. Supported by the other left-leaners of LatAm, Evo Morales, Rafael Correa and Daniel Ortega, Chavez has been riding the Cuban horse for all it is worth.

In a very real sense Chavez needs Cuba more than Cuba needs him. More specifically, Chavez needs Cuba as it has been for nearly fifty years--standing on the outside of the Organization of American States (OAS) with its nose pressed against the glass. For Chavez, the ideal situation is one where the US continues with its long established and totally failed policy of isolating Cuba. If Cuba is kept on the outside, Chavez has no serious rival for the post of chief spokesman for the--stand by for standard issue, approved socialist terms-- underprivileged, marginalised, exploited majority of the LatAm population. At least within the halls of the OAS.

More, any continued exclusion of Cuba from the OAS and akin bodies gives Chavez an ongoing, perfect issue to prop up his claims of Yankee Imperialism and Wall Street Capitalist Exploitation. He needs this if he is to continue to enjoy the influence he has currently. He needs it even more if he is going to extend the Bolivarian agenda to more of Latin America.

Chavez is not going from triumph to triumph even considering his victory in his long running effort to amend the Venezuelan constitution so that he may become president-for-life. The decline in global oil prices which will persist for some time to come, perhaps measured in years, have eroded his much hyped re-armament program. At the same time the loss of petrobucks has undercut Chavez' ambitious social welfare program.

At the same time the bluster and bullying which have emanated from Caracas in great torrents at an ever increasing volume have caused more than a little nervousness in neighboring countries including Columbia and Brazil. Both countries, particularly the latter with its newly proven off-shore oil and natural gas reserves as well as a very well established and technologically competent industrial base, possess the capacity and (potentially) the will to contest Chavez' ambitions.

Hugo Chavez has been in the habit of nearly breaking his arm by patting himself on the back for having blocked the passage of the US supported hemispheric free trade agreement at the last Summit of the Americas. His success was far more shadow than substance.

There were other, more important, factors in play which taken in concert gave more than sufficient reason for a refusal to rush into a free-trade pact. The negative consequences of globalisation as well as the specific policies forced upon South American countries by the International Monetary Fund in support of globalisation and privatization were increasingly apparent to responsible LatAm governmental figures. Also, George W. Bush had made himself more than slightly detested in the region to a degree which made certain that anything he wanted would be resisted to the last trench.

If Mr Chavez is going to maintain high profile relevance in the councils of state throughout the region, he needs Cuba as a club with which to beat the US. Without the example of Cuba the Great Man of the Bolivarian Movement has nothing to enhance his credibility when attacking the US as an arrogant, imperious hemispheric hegemon. He has to hope (and pray, if Bolivarians are in the habit of doing such) that the US will not take any rapid steps toward full normalisation of relations with Cuba.

He has two reasons for hope. The first is that American domestic politics will inhibit any Obama administration action beyond the small, symbolic steps that have already been taken. The second is that of working on the egos of the Castro brothers with a view toward seeing them impose unacceptable conditions for accepting normalisation.

Giving Chavez has even more reason to believe he has some real chance of delaying or derailing normalisation is the fact that President Obama needs political cover for further, faster progress toward undoing a half century of bad American policy. This need has been made explicit by the president's requirement that Cuba make some genuine moves toward authentic political liberalization.

Given the very touchy Cuban understanding of nationalism and threats to it, making and meeting American demands for political changes is about as demanding a job as defusing an IED while wearing boxing gloves. Chavez has the ear of one or both Castro brothers. We can be sure what he is whispering (shouting?) in them is carefully calculated to make the job of "de-isolating" Cuba tougher, much tougher.

Chavez probably will push the mute button on his anti-American noise machine at least part of the time in Port of Spain. This will not be due to any respect Chavez may feel for his American counterpart. It won't even be a consequence of Obama's (to use the new MSM buzzword) "rock star" status in LatAm. Rather the relative low volume of Chavez diatribes will be propelled by a natural desire to see the new American president not be cast in the role of victim. Chavez is too good a local politician not to know that the same folks who cheered his attacks on W. Bush would rush to the defense of Obama.

As observers ranging from Nicholas Sarkozy to Mexican newsmedia have noted at some length, President Obama is very long on show but very, very short on relevant substance. Obama both acknowledges and justifies the truth of this observation in a rather backhanded way.

The Obama mantra, "I'm here to listen" is a very useful tool for avoiding policy pronouncements while at the same time appearing to be the polar opposite of the universally detested W. Bush. Up to a point the Listen-Don't-Talk gambit is fine, even excellent.

However much foreign leaders may feel flattered by the attention directed to their words by an American president, the gambit can only be taken so far. Even though it is good for American presidents to hear the concerns, hopes and anxieties of his foreign counterparts (after all there is a good chance he will actually learn something) there comes a point when people want to hear the American chief of state.

They want to know what US policy is and will be. They want a firm point around which to rally their own gambits, their own demarches, their own positions. This is true of allies and enemies alike. The universal expectation is that the US will have a policy for or against which their own might be mobilized and directed.

The crucial need for an American president speaking candidly on a matter of policy substance is underscored by the roles of Cuba and Venezuela at the Summit of the Americas. Throughout Latin American there has been little, if any, support for the US policy of Cuban isolation. This is what gives Chavez much of his clout.

If--as likely as Osama bin Laden converting to Catholicism--President Obama would announce that the US has dropped all objections to Cuba's rejoining the OAS in time for its May meeting, LatAm leaders would be happy, very happy to listen. There would be a couple of exceptions to this, like Chavez, Morales, Correa and Ortega.

But why should we listen to them?

They Still Just Don't Get It

Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law enforcement, David Johnson, briefed the media on a new report in which the Deep Thinkers of Foggy Bottom came to the (totally unshocking) conclusion that the international drug trade particularly those portions involving Afghanistan or Mexico "threaten American national security." The tone of Mr Johnson's remarks had the glib somberness of a well practiced funeral director.

Let's get a grip here.

The opium and morphine base production in Afghanistan does represent a direct threat to US personnel in that particular geographic expression by providing the finances necessary for the Taliban to keep on keeping on. Less money from the drug trade would automatically and instantly translate into a lessened Taliban military capability.

The same can not and should not be said regarding Mexico. The Geek has become quite annoyed by the Cassandra claims that Mexico is a "failing state" caught in the throes of an emergent insurgency powered by "drug lords." The immediate, direct implication of these dire predictions of impending dissolution to the south are not only overdrawn by a couple of orders of magnitude, they injure relations with Mexico by offending the very real sensitivities of a government and elite facing very real problems.

The Geek lives close enough to the border to almost hear the gunfire in Cuidad Juarez. Not surprisingly he keeps a close eye on matters down there.

Violence, particularly in and around Juarez is higher this year than last. Life in Juraez is more at risk than in Baghdad--or even Kabul. That does not mean Mexico is imploding, or, if it does do so some day, that it will be at the hands of drug cartels.

Mexican involvement in meeting the desires of American consumers for mind and mood altering drugs is not a national security threat. Get a grip on that. It may be a major problem for the Mexican government, but it is not a looming threat to our security. Any threats come instead from underlying, systemic problems in the Mexican economy and society. These will continue whether or not the drug thugs keep on pumping lead into each other--and any interfering cop.

Mr Johnson also excoriated countries which are not collaborating with the US in its oft-declared "war on drugs." He took particular note of Venezuela as a major non-participant in the American moral crusade against the individual's right to alter his own state of mind and mood without a physician's authorization. Golly, gee, Mr Johnson, who would have thunk?

Hugo Chavez and his neo-Castroite regime are both unpleasant and potentially threatening to American strategic interests and even (because of the Iranian and Hezbollah connections) our national security. Hugo's annoying attitude and the actions it drives are not connected directly and materially to his lack of support for our anti-drug crusade.

To define or defend American national security interests in terms of what country does or does not soldier faithfully in the "war on drugs" first declared forty years ago by Richard Nixon is simply to show a disconnect between a moral and political stance on one hand and the realities of national security and strategic interests on the other. Mr Johnson and any other worthies in the State Department who actually think that drugs qua drugs are a threat to our national security anywhere except Afghanistan are simply out to lunch.

Anyway there is a rapid, sovereign means to protect our national security against the threat allegedly posed by illegal drugs. Legalise them.

Declare the truth. Declare that the "war on drugs" has been well and truly lost. Drugs of all sorts are more plentiful and at a lower cost in constant dollars today than they were when King Richard announced the Grand Crusade Against Getting High.

It is time for the State Department Deep Thinkers (and, of course, their colleagues in other departments) to recall a little bit of American history. Back before the combination of racism, xenophobia, junk science, fear mongering and rank ambition propelled the Harrison Act and its expansion back in the distant days of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, drugs were widely available, and rather commonly used. At the time as well as in retrospective analysis of the (admittedly sketchy) data, there were no crime waves predicated on drugs. There were any number of very successful professional and business people who had cocaine and morphine habits which extended for decades.

We have ample laws covering "natural" crimes to protect society against offenders who might also be drug users. We have more than enough information to counsel against use while acknowledging the short- and long-term use of many, if not most, currently illegal drugs carries no profound ill-effects. (Recently the British publication New Scientist had a fine piece comparing the impact of Ecstasy with peanuts--peanuts came out in second place particularly for acute reactions.)

The time has come to drop the cant about "sending the wrong message to our children" or the bogus scare numbers concerning the terrible effects of drugs on the artifact of self-interest called "lost productivity."

The war on drugs is ongoing but long lost.

Have the guts to admit it.

Mr Johnson, if you are right, if the international drug trade is threatening our national security, your oath to uphold and defend the Constitution requires you to state the truth--legalising drugs protects the US.

The Quiet Debacle--Latin America And The US

George W. Bush and the neocon ninnies have manufactured a number of noisy foreign policy debacles around the world. Obscured by the noise elsewhere, the Deep Thinkers of the current administration have engineered yet another train wreck in the making.

This one covers a good chunk of the southern half of our hemisphere.

You know, the area we declared off-limits to those icky-poo Europeans with our long time axis mundi of foreign policy, the Monroe Doctrine. The place Dan Quayle was referring to when he said he was sorry he hadn't studied Latin so he could talk to Latin Americans in their native tongue.

It seems that while we have been so busy changing regimes in the Mideast and Northwest Asia, there has been a bit of regime change in South America. In keeping with any number of pronouncements by presidents of both parties over the past twenty years or so, the regime changes in South America have been accomplished by more or less democratic processes. By definition, then, the elections and their outcomes are above reproach.

Beyond reproach perhaps but certainly not without danger to US interests both in the region and here at home.

Elections in Venezuela, Bolivia and Paraguay have brought to power regimes that have Yankee bashing as their chief stock-in-trade. The Geek has no problems with pulling the gringo's beard. It has long been a favorite activity everywhere south of the Rio Grande. Much of the time a little or even not so little kick in Uncle Sam's tush has been justified by the behavior of the Colossus of the North. However, the regimes in the three countries just listed are going far beyond the usual fun game of kick-the-Yanqui-in-the-ass.

The reason for this out-of-bounds call?

Simple. One word simple. Here's the word. Iran.

For those who have argued that the US could contain and deter Iran should the mullahocracy ever attain its goal of the "Mahdi bomb," there is something to be learned here. The lesson is short, blunt, unpleasant and convincing. The Iranians have already leaped over any conceivable line in the sand we might have thought of drawing. They are in a position to deter our deterrence.

You look confused. The Geek can see you scratching your chin as you think long and hard about the unlikely linkage of Islamist eschatologist mullahs and hard left LatAm socialists.

Yeah, the proposition does seem a bit odd at first sight. But, the politics of pariahdom make for the most intriguing of bedfellows. (And for those who might question the notion of secularist socialists being accepted by Islamists as allies because of religious considerations, put your minds at rest. There are no prohibitions of Muslim-infidel alliances of a temporary sort when such benefit the cause of Allah.)

While Hugo Chavez has occupied most of our (public) attention with his cozy embrace of the emissaries of Tehran, he is far from alone in the arena. Evo Morales, the one-time coke farmer turned politician has ordered that Iranians be allowed to travel to and from Bolivia without the necessity of a visa. This change of policy came in conjunction with an announcement that Iran was committed to assisting Bolivia in the development of the natural gas deposits in the restive eastern portion of the country.

The Geek viewed the ousting of the Drug Enforcement Administration's activities from Bolivia with equanimity. It was, from the Geek's understanding of Bolivian sensibilities, an action which was both long overdue and well-justified in the minds of many Bolivians both elite and hoi polloi. Accusing the American ambassador of mucking about in Bolivian internal affairs such as the recent election was likewise a non-event. Such accusations are both politics-as-usual and often quite true.

Facilitating the free movement of Iranians is completely different. Evo Morales, like his ideological elder brother, Hugo Chavez, has assured the al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as personnel from the Ministry of Intelligence and Security will have the capacity to come on in and pursue the Iranian agenda. (This agenda, it should be recalled, includes murderous acts such as the bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina fourteen years ago.)

The visa-free travel rights is complemented in the two countries by Iranian furnished Spanish language television programming to Bolivia and a direct air link between Tehran and Caracas via Damascus. Then there are the increasing financial and economic ties between the all-but-bankrupt mullahocracy and the twin laboratories in socialism Los Indios style.

Comes now Paraguay. This is a country which is normally well under the US radar since it is not a major player in the "War on Drugs." Paraguay's new president, Fernando Lugo Mendez, has been hailed in Iranian state controlled media as a fellow "enemy of the Great Satan."

"Why?" You ask.

Because President Mendez named a fellow named Alejandro Hamed Franco as the country's new Foreign Minister.

"So what?" You counter.

The "so what" is that Sr Franco is a well-known, long-time sympathiser, supporter and fund raiser of and for Hezbollah. Hezbollah, which is the big noise in Lebanon and past kicker of Israeli butt, is an Iranian proxy.

ForMin Franco is such a big supporter of Hezbollah and has been so indiscreet in his activities on behalf of the group that he is on the US State Department's "no visa" and "no fly" lists. This will make it hard for the Paraguayan foreign minister to attend sessions of the UN or meetings of the Organisation of American States at its Washington. D.C headquarters. (Unless, of course, the in-coming administration cuts Sr Franco a major bit of slack.)

Other countries throughout the region may choose to follow the example set by Venezuela, Bolivia and Paraguay. There would be reason for doing so. The US has shamefully but typically ignored South America for years. The focus has been on the Mideast, Africa, Asia while, except for the "War on Drugs" and counterinsurgency efforts in Columbia, the US has turned its back on the Southern portion of this hemisphere.

The "War on Drugs" has also served to alienate folks across the lands to our south. The Geek has never talked to a member of a South American military, diplomatic, intelligence or security component who has been favorably inclined to our "war" being waged on their land, on their citizens, on their economy. When pressed, all the Geek could do was shrug his shoulders and mutter some platitude about American morality and its impact on politics and policy.

The periodic harsh US rhetoric from both governmental personnel and assorted non-governmental entities regarding the inability of various South American governments to be sufficiently "green" in their policies and actions has done nothing to bring those south of the Rio closer together with us who live in the Land Up North. The same may be said regarding our sporadic bouts of seeming xenophobia aimed at those who speak Spanish. And, it may be said of the conditions which wrap themselves around "free trade" agreements and other matters of economic development or the perceived, negative impact of "globalization" and its handmaiden institutions, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

In short, the US has made a complete and virtually inedible hash out of our policies toward Latin America for years now. While the current administration must carry a lot of the water for this very unpleasant reality, there are buckets enough to be borne by the Clinton Administration as well.

Socialism rode to power in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador in large measure on the back of globalization and the indifference shown by the United States to the human costs of this. Socialism and Islamism may not seem to be natural allies, but, as the old cliche has it, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Most assuredly it is time for change in this area of US policy. But, if the lamentable history of US relations with South America is any guide, it ain't coming.

That will be good for the Iranians.

And, very bad for us.

Hosanna, Hosanna, Hosanna

There. The Geek has joined the seemingly obbligato post-election paeans of praise to the Agent of Change and General Purpose Deliverer.

The sounds of joy coming from Europe, Kenya and assorted (small) portions of the Mideast in no way obscures a really, really basic fact. The world goes on. Just as it did yesterday. Just as it will tomorrow.

Even if no one else made this reality clear the Russians did. The Geek gives the lads in the Kremlin a big thumbs up for showing that they still have a firm grip on reality even if a goodly chunk of We the People seem to have lost ours.

With a glum grimness which would have done Molotov proud back in the Bad Old Days of the Cold War, the Kremlin muttered that it was ready, willing and able to deploy a new generation of shortish range missiles aimed at Europe unless the (new) US administration backed off from the installation of ABMs in Poland. This hardline stance was underscored in the past few days by the Russians having tested a new ICBM and executing an operational readiness shoot of one of their aging heavy throw-weight boosters.

Time for the man with the Audacity to Hope to get a grip on the fact that the Russians are not going to go away. Neither are they going to be dissuaded from fully regaining not only the reality of Great Power status but the American recognition that they possess that status.

The world goes on in its established trajectories. Slogans and promises of change, rhetorical flourishes delivered in a victory speech don't alter that dynamic in the slightest.

Need more proof?

Perhaps the President-elect can take some comfort from the offer of improved (fraternal?) relations from the Left Socialist strongman of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez. OK. Then how about the offer being accompanied by some real action on the one-time paratrooper's part. Say, perhaps ending the ties between his far left government and the Iranian backed jihadists? If that's too much, then how about cancelling his gigabuck arms purchase from Russia? Heck, the Venezuelan economy can't afford it with oil prices going further south than Terra del Fuego.

(Or perhaps, ole Hugo expects that with the Pelosi-Reid-Obama global warming freaks running the US show, the cost of energy will go exoatmospheric real fast.)

The Geek noticed that Kim Jong Il didn't send a congratulatory message. The Hermit Kingdom of the North didn't suddenly wake up and join the world in celebration of a "new dawn." An American election didn't change a single North Korean ambition or calculation.

Throughout the Mideast and the Persian Gulf, the reaction was not much more unrestrained than that coming from North Korea. Carefully calculating and cynical men with many years experience dealing with and observing American politicians both before and after elections has muted any urge to celebrate "change." History weighs heavily in these areas. People know that real alteration in the trajectories of human institutions come slowly--if at all.

The gerontocracy in the Forbidden City is even less likely to be excited by the outcome of the election. No one knows better than the Chinese how little reality changes despite the application of cosmetics. No nation has a better understanding of the power of history. No national leadership understands more profoundly than the Chinese the reality that interests, genuine interests of state and rulers trump all matters of transience such as personality, political agenda or even ideology.

Even in Western Europe where the accolades have been flying with wild abandon, the underlying reality is different. The Europeans have watched US presidents come and go. At the same time they have been forced to recognise that American definitions of American interests remain unchanged. More, these interests remain unchangeable. Unless and until the US declines to second rate status, its self-defined interests will remain paramount whether arrogantly or humbly expressed. The interests of Washington come first.

Would President Obama have it any other way? Would he have the US attempt to resign its status as a Great Power? Would he and his supporters and cheerleaders alike argue that the world would become a far better place if the US retreated to its own borders and stopped polluting the Earth with its presence?

No. Of course not. No Great Power in history has ever successfully resigned its status. No Great Power has ever been allowed to resign. The world wouldn't let the US step down from Great Power status when we desperately wanted to back in the Twenties and Thirties. The world wouldn't let us crawl back into our hemispheric hole in the Seventies when, following our defeat in Vietnam and the scandals of Watergate, We the People demanded that we do so.

No. Subjectively defined American interests don't change. No responsible government anywhere wants them to. Sure, many would like us to act as George W. Bush promised we would so many lies ago, "humbly." And, perhaps we should.

But, not so humbly as to seem to be losing our political will and nerve. Governments around the world, those who wish us well and those who wish us ill want to know where the US stands, what it will tolerate, what it will seek, what it will ignore. Without the US providing a firm place, a solid stance for and against which other states can react, the order of the world crumbles, slightly perhaps but noticeably.

Whether We the People and those we elect like the idea or even have wit enough to recognise the existence of the idea, a fundamental reality exists today as it did yesterday and will tomorrow. It's a simple idea.

Get a grip on it.

The US is a Great Power. Beyond that, it is first among the several Great Powers of the world. Not France. Not Great Britain. Not Russia. Not China. Nor Japan. Nor Germany. Nor India.

The US alone is first among Great Powers.

As the old cliche has it, "The more things change, the more they stay the same."

Chavez Gets A (Slight) Grip On Reality

The Geek wrote a few days back that the Venezuelans were not accustomed to groveling under the jackboots of a dictatorship. Apparently, the local jefe got the message from domestic and foreign critics of his "intelligence reform" decree.

He allowed as how it was a less than perfect action and withdrew it. His sudden conversion from assertion to self-criticism came a day after the Catholic Church, a far from inconsiderable force in the country, condemned the decree.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j457tQvvjln9hcj8nNsfg27MuCYQD915LQ480

Cardnal Jorge Urosa spoke to journalists after Mass on Friday and characterised the new decree as an act which "restricts human rights consecrated in the Constitution." The next day Chavez reversed his course.

In a way which echoes Richard Nixon's comment during the Watergate debacle, Chavez said, "mistakes" were made in the decree. What a mensch! Such blazing candor!

Before the applause from various Venezuelan human rights groups for the president's having shown a modicum of realism had died away, the not overwhelmingly predictable Chavez engaged in a blinding piece of cynicism.

How so? You ask.

Chavez called upon the Colombian insurgent/narcotrafficking/criminal hostage taking group FARC to lay down their arms. (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/08/news/Venezuela-Colombia-Rebels.php)

In his regular weekly radio and television performance, Chavez reportedly said, "The guerrilla war is history. At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerrilla movement is out of place."

What! Selling out his ideological soul mates in FARC? Tell me it ain't so!

It's so. Chavez did make the statement.

However, the jefe grande had a good reason. His guy got caught. In Columbia. With the goods.

It seems that one Manuel Agudo, an officer in the Venezuelan National Guard, was caught by Colombian authorities in a province near the Venezuelan border. He was accompanied by three other men, one Colombian and two Venezuelans. That wasn't the problem.

The problem was that Manuel had 47,000 rounds of small arms ammunition suitable for use in FARC's weapon of choice, the AK-47. See a good, representative account in Reuters on-line, http://www.reuters.com/article/americasCrisis/idUSN07473021.

Quite unsurprisingly, the Venezuelan government denied that the man was a National Guard officer. http://colombiareports.com/2008/06/08/venezuela-denies-smuggler-is-national-guard/.

Knowing that the Colombian military and security agencies have been trained in the same methods of "intensified interrogation" as reportedly used by the US at Gitmo and elsewhere, the Chavez regime must have concluded that Manuel might make a few potentially embarrassing statements.

What better way to defuse any repercussions than a preemptive call upon FARC to give it up?

For a one-time paratrooper, Hugo Chavez isn't stupid. His regime is in enough doo-doo not to need an increase in tensions with his neighbor.

The oil rich country has been bouncing between (sort of) good news and (very real) bad news lately. In the first category is the widely publicised firing of some aging Otomat MKII missiles from both ships and aircraft during wargames. This Associated Press coverage is typical. See, http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hUllwkXozGiiykgzP7t7JlL2y0NgD914STOG2.

While the wargames brought a well-deserved yawn from the US, neighboring countries such as Brazil again expressed varying degrees of concern or alarm over Venezuela's enormous (as in billions of dollars) of recent or scheduled weapons acquisitions. By any standard the Chavez regime's excursion onto the international (primarily Russian) arms market is far in excess of any legitimate defense need.

In the bad news department one finds the Venezuelan economy. Inflation continues to flirt with the hyper level--particularly in the critical category of food. Inflation is running at roughly thirty percent after having been at a mere twenty percent last year. At the same time the rate of real growth is slowing. For a decent short treatment see, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International_Business/Despite_oil_wealth_Venezuela_inflation_rises/articleshow/3111726.cms

This is because of the oil boom. As has been the case before (this is why economists call it the "Dutch disease) a natural resource boom flows so much cash into an unprepared economy that real growth slows and inflation explodes.

Chavez's regime is struggling with the challenge. Much of the struggle such as price controls is simply wrong-headed and counterproductive in the long haul even though it is politically attractive in the short-term.

Faced with real, mounting problems domestically, Chavez has been taking the standard leftist authoritarian line--blaming all the problems on an "imperial power." The attempt to get the Venezuelan population to rally 'round the flag against the US threat' was invoked most recently in the failed intelligence reform decree. As has always been the case the use of a mythical external threat has its limits. Chavez ran up against them last week.

Reality has intruded upon Chavez's dreams of "Socialism For the 21st Century" in a small way. It has not yet beat him on the head enough. He hasn't abandoned his quest to become president for life or to be the new leftist leader of a united South America.

To end the dreams, reality will have to use a bigger stick. But, history shows that reality always has a larger club in the offing for those slow to heed the first tap of the stick.

When Democracy Goes Sour

Former paratrooper Hugo Chavez promised his fellow Venezuelans a new and better deal through his program of "Socialism For the 21st Century." Enough folks believed him.

He was elected president. He survived a recall move.

Hugo Chavez was a big believer in democracy. He flew the flag of vox populi, vox dei high and proud.

Until the people said no to Hugo's proposed reform (read evisceration) of the constitution a couple of months back

Subsequently the Chavez regime dropped its false flag of democracy and raised the skull and crossbones of authoritarianism. Close down the television and radio stations that refuse to parrot the party line. Bash the heads of those who disagree with the regime's view of life.

Now Chavez has taken the next logical step. By an executive decree formulated in secret and sprung on the nation. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/03/world/americas/03venez.html?th&emc=th) The new measure is not the sort which warms the hearts of pro-democracy types anywhere.

It must however make some of Hugo's nearest and dearest friends such as the Castro brothers very happy. It might even bring smiles to Hugo's new buddies, the Tehran mullahocracy.

What is the decree?

It "reorganises" the country's intelligence services. Nothing wrong with that. The US did it as well in the wake of 9/11.

There is such a thing as carrying reorganisation too far. Not that Hugo would admit that he could possibly do such a thing.

You tell me: Are the following features indicative of an over the top approach or not?

The decree requires full cooperation between members of the judiciary and the two new intelligence services, one of which focuses exclusively upon domestic threats to the government. Those judges who do not share fully with the domestic spooks (and accept their guidance) face mandatory imprisonment.

The decree requires all Venezuelans to cooperate fully not only with the secret police but even those "citizens" organisations loyal to Chavez under penalty of imprisonment for up to six years in the case of non cooperative government employees. That's as good a deal as KGB and its predecessors ever got in the old Soviet Union.

Of course the use of "citizens'" groups to assist the secret police in ferreting out and squashing dissent is taken right from the Cuban model of socialism. In Cuba the local neighborhood watch groups called Committees for the Defense of the Revolution have a long, dreary record of assuring that the Fidelistas can keep a tight lid on dissent of any sort.

Socialism For The 21st Century closely resembles the Police States Of The 20th Century.

Democracy anyone?

Initially the new fiat was justified by Interior Minister Ramón Rodríguez Chacín as being necessary to combat "interference by the United States" by assuring that the secret police held a tight “ideological commitment.” Later, faced by a completely unexpected torrent of opposition he retreated slightly, “We are talking about the responsibility all Venezuelans have with the security of the state and the resolution of any crime."

The regime didn't intend any restriction of free expression or repression of political institutions. So averred the head of the secret police.

Right. And gasoline costs under a buck a gallon anywhere in the US.

Not all Venezuelans rolled over and licked the Chavez boot. Take for example the statement by a senior member of the national judiciary.

“We are before a set of measures that are a threat to all of us,” said Blanca Rosa Mármol de León, a justice on Venezuela’s top court, in a rare public judicial dissent. “I have an obligation to say this, as a citizen and a judge. This is a step toward the creation of a society of informers.”

A damn big step!

Chavez slashed back at critics like the justice by alleging that they were supporters of the imperialism of George W. Bush. He added that his new diktat would protect Venezuela against "imperialist attacks" and assure the country's "national security."

How many sins have been committed in the name of "national security" not only overseas but here in the United States?

At least here we have a periodic opportunity to endorse or reject the actions taken on behalf of our national security. At least here--unlike Cuba, Iran or, now, Venezuela we have a strong measure of protection against zealous snoops seeking to limit our right of dissent and opposition to those in power.

(The Geek maintains that position despite the numerous attempts by the current administration and the wallahs in Congress to infringe on our individual and collective rights of debate, dissent and disagreement. Yes, much of the PATRIOT act is objectionable and the FBI as well as other agencies have abused their authority in electronic interceptions and surveillance, but not nearly so egregiously as was the case forty or fifty years ago. We survived those abuses and will survive the more recent ones.)

Those who live under the sway of Hugo Chavez's delusions of adequacy will probably not have the chance to effectively oppose the new decree. Venezuela itself may survive but only after repression is resisted, blood flows and a new (hopefully) more humane order emerges.

Chavez may last as long as Castro, but unlike the Cubans who exchanged a brutal, corrupt dictatorship for a less corrupt but equally repressive and inefficient one, Venezuela has experienced genuine democracy and an open society for most of the past several decades. They are not used to grovelling before the authority of the state.

It's going to take more than a secret police force and a legion of snitches, more than Russian weapons and Iranian banking agreements, more than a high price for oil to keep Chavez in power long.

Hugo should have thought it through before he hauled up the jolly roger of dictatorship. In the end pirates are hung.

Iran, The Bomb and The Candidates

George W. Bush brought the matter of Iranian nuclear ambitions back out of the closet during his speech last week to the Israeli parliament. Apparently he continues to think that the Iranians are up to something icky-poo in that area and believes something should be done about it.

That's nice.

The question of what might or should be done was not addressed by the Decider Guy.

Neither has it been addressed meaningfully by any of the senatorial trio seeking electoral preferment.

We the People know the following. One candidate, Senator Obama, would go the route of negotiations backed by incentives--including a summit meeting without preconditions. The second, Senator Clinton, would go with negotiations and incentives albeit at the sub-cabinet level until fundamental agreement had been achieved. Finally, Senator McCain eschews negotiations beyond those necessary to lower Iranian involvement in the Iraqi War and would employ sanctions to achieve an end to unacceptable Iranian nuclear programs.

Those platitudinous adumbrations fail to impress the Geek. They should fail to impress anyone well oriented as to time and place as well.

The Iranians and their nuclear ambitions are not going to just evaporate no matter how hard any of us might wish they would. The mullahocracy is not going to have a sudden change of heart and mind.

They are going to need an effective kick in their collective rear end to mend their troublemaking ways. Perhaps a hard kick.

Now, don't go thinking that the Geek has joined up with the neocon ninnies and their hallucination of improving the world through force imposed regime change. He hasn't.

The Iranians have already preempted the next offer of inducements by the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, PRC and Germany) by their letter to EU negotiator Solana and UN SecGen Ban Ki-moon. In it the Tehran regime allows that it might join an international consortium provided that its domestic enrichment program goes on as scheduled. With an arrogance that is breathtaking, the letter goes on to demand that any discussions also consider a remarkable range of irrelevant matters including the Balkans, the Mideast, Africa and Latin America!

The Geek is of the opinion that had the California Supreme Court issued its ruling on gay marriages a few days earlier, the Iranian letter would have placed that on the agenda as well.

The EU in its attempts to show Washington how real diplomats do the job has offered Tehran train loads of carrots with the results best illustrated by Iranian progress in deploying more improved centrifuges in their enrichment cascade. With this reality establishing the context, it is easy to see why the Tehran regime exhibited such intransigence and arrogance in their letter.

Senators Obama and Clinton, particularly the former, should think long and hard over the experience of the European Union before embracing inducement based negotiations.

In addition that Nice Young Man From Chicago, B.H. Obama, might take a cold hard look at the personality of the current Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Leaving aside Ahmadinejad's jeremiads against Israel, attention might be given to the Iranian Chief Executive's statements regarding the direct involvement of the Twelfth Imam in the daily actions of the government (a position rejected by many clerics in the mullahocracy) or his comment that his country's economic problems might be solved if more Iranians followed a "culture of martyrdom." Whatever that might mean.

Check out one Western account of the call for martyrdom from the French press agency, a good source, http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jelVVHDZfukEAiK80qF88B6Q1Tpg.

On balance, Ahmadinejad gives the impression of being off balance.

To date the various rounds of sanctions imposed by the UN and followed with varying degrees of enthusiasm by countries and companies around the world have hurt Iran.

But hurt isn't enough. The hurt hasn't worked. The centrifuges keep on spinning.

This doesn't mean that sanctions will not work if more are applied with greater precision in targeting and greater compliance by corporate and government agencies.

Get a grip on these unpleasant (for the Iranians) realities. PRESS TV admits the inflation rate in Iran ran twenty-four percent for the year ending last April. The outlet quotes the Central Bank in its coverage. (http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=54275&sectionid=351020102) Ahmadinejad responded by firing some financial wallahs and claiming that the inflation rate was lower, only about nineteen percent and claiming Iran's "enemies" were responsible anyway.

Then there is the unemployment problem. About one out of every four young Iranians doesn't have a job. http://www.africasia.com/services/news/newsitem.php?area=mideast&item=080512115831.nd5ex4ol.php. In urban areas the figure is over twenty-eight percent. That's a right large passel of unemployed, frustrated teens and twenty somethings. Worrisome for any government.

But wait! There's more.

As if massive unemployment, exo-atmospheric inflation, chronic shortages and periodic "wage holidays" weren't enough, the Iranian government is proceeding with its "privatization" program. Over the past three years privatization has been an ad hoc affair, but as of 15 May, it went official, organised with the release of five or so percent of Republic Shipbuilding to the public.

The well-off, well-connected (or the sons thereof) will do even better than they did under the previous fit-and-start approach.

The idea apparently is to sop up some of the excess liquidity which has driven so much of the inflation to date. But, like previous attempts sponsored by Ahmadinejad, including housing construction and an order that banks lower interest rates to say nothing of directed increases in government salaries and pensions, this stab at privatization will prove counterproductive.

The economic difficulties confronting Iran suggest that strengthened sanctions calculated to hit the Iranian commercial class and sagging infrastructure may yet prove effective. This will take a greater effort on the part of the P5+1--particularly the PRC.

To accomplish the goal of more effective sanctions more effectively implemented will require more patience on the part of the current, lame duck US administration. Even that won't be enough.

For the sanction approach to work it is necessary that Tehran be allowed no comfort in the thought that barely more than six months from now a new administration, presumably with new policies and approaches, will take office.

Only John McCain to date has refused to give Tehran that comfort.

"What about oil prices?" You ask.

"What about the new Iran-Venezuela axis?" You object.

The Geek buys gas and LPG. He knows the pain in the skinny wallet all too well.

But, he also knows history. The US has been through periods of (at the time) astronomical oil and gasoline prices. During the previous oil shocks in 1973 and 1979-80 and the late '90s, the US was hurt badly by rising prices. But, we muddled our way through. The market forces eventually worked.

They will again. Provided the wallahs in Congress can hold their emotions (and driving need to be re-elected) under control. While not an unreconstructed free marketeer by any stretch of the imagination, the Geek cannot help by notice that the market has worked better than government actions in limiting and eventually reversing the damage of shocks to the economy.

Taking a quick look at Iran's attempt to horizontally escalate its confrontation with the US by linking with Venezuela (a subject for a later post), the Geek gives it a thumbs up.

What!

Yes, the Geek thinks it couldn't happen to a better bunch of guys. Hugo Chavez is clearly as deep an economic thinker as Ahmadinejad and the mullahs as his latest nationalization scheme shows. Venezuela is expected to have an inflation rate of twenty-six percent. http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=70644, http://english.eluniversal.com/2008/05/07/en_eco_art_inflation-at-1.7-per_07A1561241.shtml. Food prices have jumped over forty percent--and it isn't because of the oil price boom. http://english.eluniversal.com/2008/05/14/en_eco_art_venezuela-records-th_14A1576685.shtml.

With a meeting of such potent economic minds as those running Iran and Venezuela, the outcome can only be beneficial to those who live in other countries.

The next administration will have a full foreign policy plate whether they want to eat it or not. The incompetent neocon ninnie cooks in the current regime have made sure of that. We the People had best demand full, candid explanations of goals and means of acquiring those goals from the candidates.

We must not let any of the wannabe residents of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue glide on by with a handful of poorly thought out but nice sounding campaign platitudes.

Unless we want to see us and the rest of the world slide further down the slope so well greased by the Bush-Cheney regime.

Evo Morales--The Chicken Becomes a Fox

The Geek has to admire a slick job when he sees one. Bolivian president Evo Morales has pulled off one super slick trick. No doubt about it.

Morales, Bolivia's first Indio president has signed a recall election bill into law. Pushed by his "white" opponents who hallucinated that the soccer playing one time peasant had been weakened by the results of the Santa Cruz provincial autonomy referendum on 4 May could be removed from office through a recall vote.

The bill which Morales signed provides for himself and all nine provincial governors to face recall in a special election on 10 August. So far, so good. Or so it seems.

The devil, of course, was hiding in the details. Apparently so blinded by the glorious vision of removing the uppity Indian from office, the opposition didn't look closely at the precise wording of the new legislation.

To be removed from office Morales or any of the nine governors must receive a "no" vote total that is greater in both absolute numbers and percentage of the vote cast than the votes they received in the last general election.

The Geek tips his hat to the shrewd high school dropout president.

Get a grip on this. Morales received approximately 1.5 million votes, or more than fifty-three percent of those cast. To be removed from office the "no" vote total must be greater than 1.5 million and the percentage must exceed the 53.7 percent.

There ain't no way that's going to happen.

Some of the governors aren't so fortunate. Take, for example, Jose Luis Paredes the governor of La Paz and an opponent of Morales. He won the Morales supporting state with thirty-eight percent of the vote. If thirty-nine percent of the voters check the "no" box, Paredes is out and the llama herder turned president gets to appoint a replacement.

Sweet?

You bet. There is no way that Morales is going to wake up sad come morning on the 11th of August.

Slickness may be enough to keep Morales in office. It may even be enough to remove pesky governors who don't march to the tune of Evo's Populist Band.

It isn't enough to assure the best future for Bolivia. It isn't even enough to give Morales a good write up in future history texts.

Morales, like his colleagues Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa, is a populist. He came to power through the democratic process as did the other two. He, along with Chavez and, to some extent, Correa, doesn't like globalization.

More to the point, in common with the other two is the latest round of a long standing South American political disease.

The name of that disease?

Economic populism.

It is amazing how little so many South Americans fail to learn from their continent' political history.

Economic populism has a long record of abject (and often bloody) failure through the length and breadth of the continent. The narrative is always the same. It is always based on ethno-nationalism and a hyped sense that "we" (the locals, the working class, Los Indios, the peasants) are being heartlessly exploited by "them" (the ricos, the Norteamericanos, the "whites.")

The populist demagogue rouses fear and anger. Fear and anger produce enthusiasm and votes.

Badda-bing! The populist is elected. Ain't democracy grand?

Comes now the redistribution of land, the nationalization of basic industry, of financial institutions, the confiscation of wealth. Now the landless will have land. The jobless will have jobs. The poor will have wealth.

In the short term everything will look good as the history of Juan Peron in Argentina shows,

Eventually the wheels fall off the Great Socialist Vehicle. Inflation. Hyperinflation. Loss of agricultural and industrial productivity. Systemic inefficiency. Infrastructure collapse. An end to investment both foreign and domestic. Middle class flight.

The process used to take years, even decades. Now it can occur in months given the speed with which information moves and decisions made.

The Bolivian Slicky-Boy may be lucky. Lord knows, the ex-paratrooper Chavez has been.

Morales' running buddy, the inventor of "Socialism For the 21st Century" Hugo Chavez, has been a favorite son of Lady Luck. The rocketing price of oil has buoyed the more-or-less democratically elected semi-authoritarian.

While as many of the middle class as can get visas and plane tickets to Panama or points even more to the north, while the production of Venezuela's oil fields slides due to loss of skill and degradation of plant, Chavez has been able to fund the FARC insurgents in Columbia, make wink and nudge agreements with the mullahocracy in Iran and sign contracts for two gigabucks worth of Russian weapons.

Will Morales be so fortunate?

Bolivian natural gas is critical to both Argentina and Brazil. At least for the moment.

But how long will that last?

Large hydrocarbon deposits have been discovered in the waters of Brazil's Exclusive Economic Zone. With foreign direct investment and co-production agreements in the offing, Brazil will not only be able to meet its own needs but become a major exporter.

Assuming that the Brazilians do not engage in another of their recurrent flights of economic populism, the market forces will work in Brazil's favor. The country already has a firm industrial base and a fair amount of indigenous capital. Exportation of hydrocarbon, particularly natural gas, will enhance not only Brazil but countries such as Argentina who can use the resource beneficially.

For the market to work the context must be stable and predictable. This means that excesses of democracy must be avoided. It also means that the region must be free from both violence and threats of violence.

Here Evo Morales the current Fox of the Andes may be out foxing himself and his fellow Bolivians. By linking himself ideologically with Hugo Chavez who is shaping up as the The Continental Thug, Morales may be helping to assure the very instability which will undercut the potential of regional economic prosperity.

Take a look at history, Presidente Morales. Look at Argentina. At Juan Peron and the lingering effects of the Peronistas. Take a look at Mexico. Take a close look at what has happened recently in Mexico with the lack of foreign investment in the oilfields.

Take a long, hard look at history and think. Is this really in the best interests of Bolivia?

True, globalization is not an undiluted good (pace Alan Greenspan) and the "whites" have not been without major flaw, but is heavy handed, short-sighted seizure of land and resources the best way to provide the best future for all Bolivians?

Economic populism is a great way to get power. It is a piss-poor way to run a country.

A Roosting Chicken Named Evo Morales

"The worst enemy of humanity is US capitalism. That is what provokes uprisings like ours. If the entire world doesn't acknowledge that nation states are not providing even minimally for health, education and nourishment, then fundamental human rights are being violated." So crows the rooster of Bolivia's Los Indios not only on his successful campaign for the presidency, but on an almost weekly basis for the past two years.

Evo Morales, a soccer playing former grower of coca, is, if anything, restrained in his view of US economic and foreign policy compared to Hugo Chavez. The motor-mouthed Venezuelan president is not only noted for insulting personalities as disparate as SecState Rice and the King of Spain but also for a unique ability as a political contortionist leaning simultaneously on the Commissars of Cuba and the Iranian mullahocracy.

In Ecuador, Rafael Correa is a comparatively low-intensity version of Morales and a near midget in the Uncle Sam bashing game next to Chavez. Dr Correa (PhD, economics, University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, 2001) distrusts the market, particularly the US dominated global one as an instrument for the concentration of wealth but apparently appreciates the weaknesses of command economies. Even though the doctor of the dismal science and the political party he created have embraced the Venezuelan notion "Socialism for the 21st Century," Correa does not seem quite so gripless as either one-time paratrooper and originator of "Socialism For the 21st Century," Chavez, or high school dropout Morales.

Nonetheless Correa shares a very important feature with his academically challenged colleague in Bolivia--the view that globalization, including transnational corporations and international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, favor not only the wealthy nations of the world but the domestic "white" elite.

Both believe fervently that the poor, particularly the indigenous descent peoples, Los Indios, get the short and very dirty end of the status and power stick.

The majority of the Bolivian population, unlike that of either Ecuador or Venezuela, is indigenous. Approximately fifty-five percent of all Bolivians are of ingenious ancestry. (In comparison Ecuador's population is sixty-five percent mestizo, twenty-five percent indigenous, seven percent white and three percent African. The CIA World Factbook gives no percentage breakdown for Venezuela.)

The majority of Bolivia's Los Indios lives in the mountains of the country's west. The eastern, resource rich provinces of the country led by Santa Clara are home to most of the "whites" and most of the wealth. Physically, economically and demographically there are two Bolivias. One is high altitude, barren, resource scarce and brown. The other is resource rich, flat and white.

That's the problem. A problem made worse by both globalization and the effects of democracy.

Bolivia has had more than its share of problems. More than 200 coups and counter coups blighted its existence down to 1982 when the first civilian government in recent history was voted into power. The civilian governments for the next quarter century were unable to deal effectively with endemic, deeply-rooted poverty, drug production, social unrest and corruption.

Morales was elected in 2005 by the largest margin on record. His platform was simple: castrate the long entrenched elite, empower the poor, use the hydrocarbon riches of the eastern provinces for the good of all and confiscate large estates for redistribution to the landless.

Utopian?

Quite probably.

Historically as well as today, Bolivia is one of the poorest and least developed countries in South America. Bolivian life expectancy is a full decade less than that in Venezuela. Nearly that many years behind Ecuador. Sixty percent of Bolivians live below the local poverty line. The lowest decile of the population has only three tenths of one percent of the gross national income while the highest decile enjoys nearly fifty percent.

Sounds bad? Right, maybe even obscenely rotten.

Now for the irony behind Morales.

It used to be worse. Much worse.

Bolivia went straight down the economic tubes in the early Eighties. The catastrophe not only brought civilians to power but spurred a series of basic economic, political and legal reforms. These in turn brought a sharp increase of private investment from both domestic and foreign sources. This development was followed, unsurprisingly, by strong economic growth and a drop in the poverty rate.

In short, from the late Eighties through the Nineties the good times (comparatively speaking) were rolling in Bolivia.

The discovery and initial exploitation of large natural gas deposits in the east were seen by the government as well as members of the elite as the cash cow from heaven. Plans were made to milk it by sending the hydrocarbon manna North. These plans died in an outbreak of violent protests and ethnic violence. Los Indios as an ethno-national identity was coming into effective existence during the years 2002-2005.

Evo Morales was not a simple peasant face-in-the-mob during this period of movement consolidation and expansion. No. Not hardly. His face was right out front. Accompanied by his mouth. A highly effective mouth backed by an able enough brain and a simple message.

The essence of the message?

Very simple. Even an illiterate llama herder breathing hard at 11,000 feet could grasp it.

The white guys are at it again. Just like when the Spanish came and ripped off the Incas. Now its the North Americans, the Europeans and their local stooges. They're going to rip us off again! Wealth and land to the poor and landless! Bolivia for the true Bolivians--Los Indios!

The good which globalization arguably had done for Bolivia a few years earlier was wiped out in the minds of the Bolivian majority by fear. Fear of an ethnic "other." The white guy. The guy in a suit carrying a brief case.

The guy who would grind the sons of the Incas further into the the arid rock of the Andes while the money in his brief case would stick to the hands of the "whites" in the flatlands. The "whites" who owned the land over the hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbons which would go to the outside while Los Indios sold trinkets to tourists and shoveled llama poop.

Democracy is wonderful. if you have the numbers behind you. If you have the numbers lined up under the lash of fear and the carrot not of pie-in-the-sky but land and money in the here-and-now.

Also, wouldn't it be lovely (heh-heh) to watch those blanco ricos squirm as we give the orders for a change? Bolivia for Los Indios!

Lovely? You bet.

Nationalise the hydrocarbons! Seize the land! All power to the people! Watch the ricos sweat, bluster and beg!

Join with Venezuela and yank Uncle Sam's beard.

Sounds good. Even some Americans like the idea.

Then came the fourth of May in Santa Clara. The autonomy referendum. The wave of the future?

Perhaps. That's not certain. Not yet.

One thing is certain: Morales thinks so. So does Chavez. And Correa.

Another thing that is sure. It's another foreign policy chicken come home to roost in Foggy Bottom, the White House and Congress.

More on that later

The US--An Inconsistant Neighbor

Over one hundred fifty years ago the United States made its first venture into Latin American foreign policy with the Monroe Doctrine. At the time the British Foreign Minister scoffed at "the Yankee cockboat trailing in the wake of the British frigate."

He was right. Just not quite right enough.

A cursory examination of US-Latin American relations shows that the enormous mass of land and people south of us is at best a very small dingy bobbing in the wake of larger foreign policy concerns. For that matter the UK, Spain, Italy, and, on occasion, Germany have placed one or more of the many countries of South and Central America far higher on the to-do list than has the US.

South and Central America only sporadically drift through Washington's crosshairs. Normally these occur during war or the threat of war (usually seen as a potential abridgement of the Monroe Doctrine, construed broadly.) Every now and then Washington wakes up from its seemingly endless siesta to cough out a new direction in our relations with the land to the south.

Secretary of State Olney's "sixteen inch gun" memorandum which provoked a tad of saber rattling in Great Britain was an early example of the Monroe Doctrine's impact on our view of South America. More famous and long term in its effect was Theodore Roosevelt's Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which went hand in hand with the need to protect the seaward approaches to the Panama Canal.

(Completeness of the historical record requires the Geek to note that TR fabricated the "revolt" which created Panama from the body of Columbia. In large measure, TR did this because of apprehension within portions of the Progressive Internationalists about the prospect of Germany moving to build a trans-isthmian canal. The Monroe Doctrine shook like half congealed jello over that prospect.)

The Roosevelt Corollary led to the stability oriented occupations of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Nicaragua. These interventions were seen as required by the Monroe Doctrine and US interests at the time. Hindsight both in the US and Latin America strongly questioned the wisdom and the long term effects of our efforts in the construction of democracy.

The Monroe Doctrine was shrugged off and Uncle Sam woke from a nap of benign neglect with the creation of the Good Neighbor Policy during the administration of Franklin Roosevelt. One effect of this "new direction" was the formation of the Rio Pact and the concomitant creation of the Organization of American States.

The potential of the Good Neighbor Policy (if any) was prevented from full development by World War II. Whether mentioned by name or not, the Ghost of President Monroe rose from the grave with a speed that would do Dracula proud as the US sought bases, provided weapons, and enlisted allies in the Great Crusade in Europe.

The Cold War kept the Monroe Doctrine stalking the hemisphere with policy implications for the region that were not always positive. The US administrations and congresses were eager to confuse the appearance of short-term order under a repressive government with the reality of long-term stability.

The intellectual and realpolitik bankruptcy of reflexive support for repressive regimes was brought home dramatically with the success (in largest measure assured by a single critical decision by President Eisenhower) of the 26th of July Movement headed by Fidel Castro. Shortly thereafter the long dictatorship of Trujillo was ended in the Dominican Republic, but not in a way that met either the best interests of the Dominican people or US policy.

In between the success of Castro and the fall of Trujillo, the US tried yet another "new direction" in Latin American policy. The Kennedy Administration brought forth, in a typical blare of Camelot Era hype, something called the Alliance For Progress, which promised all sorts of economic goodies for our neighbors to the south.

The potential (if any) of the Alliance was never realised as Congress and the Johnson Administration saw higher priorities in the War on Poverty and the War in Vietnam. Latin America, with the exception of that ever present US bete noir, Cuba, faded into the background.

The Ghost of President Monroe went back to the crypt with only occasional appearances as in the Nixon "two track" strategy in Chile. Or Ronald Reagan's adventures in counterinsurgency and regime change in El Salvador and Nicaragua. The lesson was simple: A whiff of Marx brings Monroe out of the pine box.

In more recent years we Americans have been quite content to pull our metaphorical sombreros down over our eyes and sleep. Every now and then the sound of gunfire in the War on Drugs (a war that does not involve the Spirit of James Monroe) rouses us to send lawyers, guns, and money to governments who promise to use them to rout out and kill drug thugs.

After a few years though even the War on Drugs became repetitious and boring enough so that we fell back into a dozing daze. What the hey! There was all that nifty Arab terrorist stuff.

And, didn't you hear? The Soviet Union is kaput! Communism is dead. Unless there is a connection with Iran or al-Qaeda, the Ghost of Monroe can rest in peace forevermore.

The Geek is all for letting the Monroe Doctrine slumber. He is not all for ignoring the swath of the globe down south of the Rio Grande del Norte.

Consider Hugo Chavez, the neo-Castroite jefe of Venezuela. While the current administration has been focused on the Global War on Terrorism and Great Adventures in Regime Change, something quite unpleasant to our current and future national interest has been underway down very far south of the border.

While Sr Chavez might have originally come into office in a properly democratic election, his more recent record (including the attempted recall vote which Chavez won in a disputable election) shows him to be a man for whom the democratic process is a disposable tool.

The Geek is not going to offer an assessment of Chavez' potential as a benevolent despot beyond noting with interest the outflow of the Venezuelan middle class to nearby countries such as Panama. There must be a reason, a good reason, for these established folks to be taking the next stage out of Dodge.

Far under the radar of the mainstream media and the neocon ninnies alike, Sr Chavez has been busy. Oh, the Geek doesn't simply mean with such mundane internal matters as suppressing freedom of the electronic media or nationalizing the odd oil firm or two. Mere bagatelles those. Hardly worth tipping the sombrero back off the eyes.

No, what the Geek is referring to is how the beaver-busy Chavez has been cultivating his regional garden. Beyond establishing tighter and tighter ties with his fellow-travelling leaders in Ecuador and Bolivia, Sr Chavez has been using his personal charisma and lots of oil money to establish connections in Columbia and elsewhere in the continent. (Of course Sr Chavez' affections for and ties with Castro's Cuba require no comment.)

Sr Chavez has not been ignoring the larger world either. Iran has increasingly cozy relations with Venezuela.

And, why not, the Geek asks. The two regimes have several features in common. Both have beaucoup oil money. Both detest the United States. Both have the policy interest and desire to defeat the US whenever and where ever possible.

Under Chavez, Venezuela has been sidling closer to other hostile states such as North Korea and Syria. Nor has the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry been indifferent to the potentials of closer relations with the Peoples' Republic of China.

Perhaps with these considerations in play, the current administration (or its successor) will be tempted to re-awaken the Ghost of Monroe. Or, more optimistically, the US will rouse from its most recent fit of absentmindedness regarding South America and seek yet another "new direction."

One strong contender for the next new direction is the creation of yet more free-trade zones in the manner of NAFTA or its Central American equivalent--the one which Costa Rica by a narrow margin of votes chose to join last weekend.

Liberals and trans-national corporations (the strangest of strange bed mates) have a seemingly bottomless faith in the power of free-trade to counter all the icky-poo things that go bump in the foreign policy night. Progressives and true conservatives (another passingly weird political alliance) do not share this belief.

(The Geek is officially an agnostic on the question since not enough time has elapsed for a genuine historical trajectory to have emerged. Still, he shudders every time he passes the local Walmart and thinks about the implications of its Adventure in Globalization.)

History demonstrates convincingly that the US has never been either a good or a bad neighbor to South America. It shows instead that the US has been the most inconsistent of neighbors.

History also demonstrates beyond even the most unreasonable doubt that the worst sort of foreign policy is an inconsistent one.

We have to get a grip on that reality. And change it. Or, suffer the consequences of sleeping at the switch.