Arguably the world is better off now that Mahmoud al-Mabhouh has gone to his reward. The late Mr Mabhouh was a talented, highly motivated, true believing thug of the blackest sort, a specialist in the arts of clandestine killing, fomenting terror, and supplying war. Powered by hate, zeal, and revanchism, he stood behind killings, kidnappings, and the knifefighting sort of war which has long characterized the Israeli-Arab conflict.
The Israelis no doubt wanted him dead. There is no doubt but that the government, intelligence services, and people of Israel are very happy that Mr Mabhouh is now examining the root systems of daisies up close and personal. But, there is doubt that the government of Israel and its legendary intelligence service, the Mossad, are responsible for the Mabhouh Hit.
This is not to say it is impossible for the Mossad to have shown the awesome combination of arrogance and amateur tradecraft which is so evident in the events surrounding the death of al-Mabhouh. The mind rebels against the notion that the often highly competent Mossad could have been so indifferent to the presence and capacities of closed circuit surveillance television systems as to leave a virtual minute-by-minute record of the eleven person team's presence and actions. The mind also boggles at the Mossad being so totally out-to-lunch as to counterfeit passports so poorly (not using an alphanumeric coding for example) as to invite easy identification.
(A side question: How come the eagle-eyed pass control officials of Dubai missed the glaring errors on the passports, particularly those purportedly issued by the Irish and German governments? Given that governments notify each other as to the format of passports, it is hard to understand how these obviously false documents got by the border guards and customs men.)
Balancing these concerns is historical reality. From time to time the Mossad, apparently driven by a misplaced belief in its own press releases, has performed with exceptional arrogance and ineptitude. One occasion was the unfortunate hit conducted in Norway on an innocent Lebanese waiter misidentified as a terrorist figure of note. Another was the badly botched assassination attempt in Jordan in 1997 which left the Israelis covered with embarrassment, the head of Mossad sacked, and Jordan's king outraged.
Benjamin Netanyahu was prime minister in 1997. He is PM again today. The Mossad director back then was an overly muscular sort. So is Meir Dagan, who has been capo of Israel's spooks for eight years now.
Mossad has enjoyed a great deal of presumed success in eliminating Israel's enemies using clandestine and covert means. They have not been immune to allowing success to be imputed improperly to their efforts rather than pointing out the potential for internecine rivalries to have been behind the death of one enemy or another. Indeed, the Israelis have turned the reputation of the Mossad into an impressive weapon in their psychological warfare arsenal.
As a result it would not behoove the Israeli government to deny involvement in the death of al-Mabhouh. At the same time the customs of international protocol prohibit claiming responsibility. So, the Israeli ForMin was right in neither denying nor accepting Mossad's role in the killing.
As long as studied ambiguity surrounds the Dubai Affair, no government other than that of Dubai is going to be particularly perturbed by the demise of Mr Mabhouh. He was a throughly unpleasant character with whom one dealt only because state policy required. If the Dubai chief of police had not been so personally annoyed by the blatant nature of the killing and the almost defiant way in which it was conducted, it is doubtful that anyone in the United Arab Emirates would have been disturbed by the event.
However, the chief has put his head on the line in the case so now other governments must as well. The British are taking the matter seriously. So also are the Irish and Germans. This means, at the least, a great show of "getting to the bottom of matters" must be made over the next few days and weeks. Ultimately, this may very well rebound to the overall diplomatic and political disadvantage of Israel--particularly if Mossad was involved even indirectly.
If Mossad was carrying out the instructions of its government, some very real soul searching is necessary. No, there is no need to contemplate the ethics of the killing: it was well deserved by the recipient. Rather, the "Institute" must re-examine its tendency toward an unfortunate and periodic exhibitionism. There is a reason for clandestine and covert operations--not to get caught, not to be indicted, and, most assuredly, not to be convicted even in the court of public opinion.
The "win" column for the spooks is headed by the capture of Mullah Baradar by a combination of CIA and the Pakistani Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI.) Baradar has been on the top of the capture list since December for the US. Killing him would have been OK but catching him was far preferable. Finally, a fortuitous happening apparently allowed CIA to connect all the relevant dots and, with ISI in tow, take the Mullah into durance vile.
The Pakistanis had a couple of good reasons to cooperate whole heartedly in the take down as not only has the US finally agreed to furnish them with (unarmed) small UAVs but Islamabad has come to realize that only by cooperating can they keep themselves in play for influence in Afghanistan following the defeat of Taliban. It appears the Pakistani government has decided that the US is likely to achieve its minimum necessary strategic goal of not-losing in Afghanistan and now is looking at how best to play the endgame.
Baradar is currently in Pakistani hands with CIA playing an observer role. This implies that the interrogation will be more robust than if the mullah were in American custody. The consequences in terms of organisational disruption for Taliban are likely to be severe and quite negative. Taken together with the ongoing Predator strikes and the offensive in Helmand province, the future for the Fearless Thugs of Taliban does not look as bright as it did a month or two ago.
It is unfortunate that the same cannot be said of Hamas in the aftermath of the killing of al-Mabhouh. But, in the world of spooks one out of two ain't half bad.
