"The Kids" Are Getting Plumb Dangerous

Al Shabaab, (the youth, if you prefer English) has hit outside its home turf of Somalia for the first time. It was a hard hit. A hard hit which "The Kids" had promised if Uganda did not remove its "occupying" troops from the few blocks which comprise the writ of the Transitional Federal Government.

The High Minded and Lofty Thinking diplomats of the West created the fiction of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and then abandoned the field to the forces of the African Union. The AU is notoriously long on ambition and delusions of adequacy. It is equally short on competence, funding, able armed forces, and consistent political will.

When all the AU promises had been made, only Uganda and Burundi sent peacekeeping forces. Of these, the Ugandans have done the most freight hauling. Uganda has done this for several reasons, none of which are altruistic. In large measure the Ugandan government has kept its presence in Mogadishu as an emblem of its enlarging status on the continent.

With the discovery and proving of significant oil reserves, Uganda has been announcing its ambitions to be a major player in African affairs. New visions of prosperity and the status which such will bring in its wake have been accompanied by apparent success in finally defeating the long running sore caused by the Lords Resistance Army's insurgency. Muscle flexing in Somalia can be seen as a natural extension of these factors as well as a counter to the influx of refugees from Somalia.

The deadly triple bombing during the World Cup final game in Uganda's capital Kampala gives the country's government a stark choice: withdraw from Somalia or enlarge the effort. Neither option is good.

Al Shabaab is riven at present between two major competing factions. One wants to focus on the final elimination of the TFG and the installation of a shariah compliant Islamist regime. The other, the internationalist wing which is aligned with al-Qaeda and numbers hundreds of foreign fighters in its ranks, wants to export the war to other countries in the Horn of Africa including not only Uganda but Kenya as well. The Kampala attack hints that the internationalists are either winning the internecine struggle or are both willing and able to go it alone.

Either of these two alternatives indicates that the very dynamic the US feared when it employed the Ethiopian army as a proxy to eliminate the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) is coming to pass. The ICU was seen by the US as providing another safe haven for violent political Islamists of the al-Qaeda variety. The extirpation of this potential was seen as both necessary and high priority.

The failure of the US and other Western governments to look one day beyond that upon which the ICU was deposed guaranteed that the aftermath would be worse. As Somalia has never been other than a mere geographic expression in which all politics were local and clan based, the avenue of chaos was wide open to any group sufficiently motivated and willing to kill. Of the various groups so oriented, al-Shabaab was the most dedicated and most willing to pile up corpses.

With the exception of former British Somalia, which peeled itself away from the rest of the mess assembled by Western diplomats at the UN a half century earlier, Somalia rapidly fell under the shariah clad heel of al-Shabaab. Resistance to "The Kids" was just enough to ensure the group became more and more extreme, more willing to kill, more dedicated to winning--and more willing to call for outside support.

It was the political equivalent of a person taking just enough antibiotic to assure the weak bacteria were killed and the survivors made stronger, more resistant, and more deadly. Al-Shabaab is comprised of battle tested and slaughter hardened survivors.

These indigenous survivors have been reinforced in recent months by equally battle tested and slaughter hardened fighters from other theaters including Iraq and Afghanistan. They have also been joined by recruits from the twenty plus years of Somalian diaspora. Arabs, Afghans, Uzbeks, returning refugees or the children of refugees, all are united by the ideology of violent political Islam, by the vision of a global caliphate or, at the least, by a deep and abiding hatred of the infidels of the West and all the baggage those infidels carry.

The less than half-hearted measures taken to date by the US and other Western countries to bring, or, to err on the side of accuracy, impose, stability on Somalia have done absolutely nothing useful. All have been counterproductive. From the cut-and-run decision taken by President Clinton in the wake of the killing of nineteen special forces troops in an ill-conceived and worse executed attempt to "arrest" a Somalian warlord nearly twenty years ago to the present time, the actions of the US could not have been more carefully calculated to produce an Islamist victory and the dreaded new safe harbor for al-Qaeda.

The triple bombing in Kampala should serve as a wakeup call not simply for Uganda or the AU but for the US and the West generally. The hope that proxies would provide a low risk, low cost way of preventing an Islamist takeover of Somalia has been proven disastrously wrong. Al-Shabaab has shown a will and ability to engage in significant horizontal escalation of the war. It is no longer an internal matter, resident in Somalia alone.

With the Kampala attack "The Kids" have shown their threats to Kenya and elsewhere must be taken seriously. The Bad Boys Of The True Faith can and will make good on their threats. The proof is in the mangled bodies of those who died, shredded by al-Shabaab's bombs. "The Kids" own the initiative now. They can choose when, where, and how to strike. No country, certainly not Kenya, nor Yemen is safe.

It will not be sufficient to leave the task up to the AU. While the association may want that to be the case, the bitter ground truth is that the Union is not up to the job. Not even a massive influx of foreign money will change that. Only years of careful training backed by shipments of modern equipment can spin up the AU forces to a level of skill which would allow them to undertake either effective stability operations in Somalia or adequately guard against replays of the Kampala attack.

That leaves the usual fall back--the US and the West. Considering that the US is still neck deep in the Big Muddy of Afghanistan, it is not in the cards for Washington to send in the Marines or the airborne. Considering the West is locked in a losing contest of wills with Iran on the rather critical matter of the mullahs getting their Mahdi Bomb, it staggers the imagination to conclude that the European Union or any member state will decide to send troops to Somalia.

To go completely outside the box--how about Russia? That's a non-starter considering that the Kremlin cannot even deal effectively, "clarify and put to order" in the words of Vladimir Putin, the Islamist insurgency in the Caucasus--and that is conveniently close to Russia.

To keep on pushing the envelop of theoretical possibilities--what about China? Well, China always needs more oil and Uganda has oil. Perhaps China can form its version of Blackwater security and contract with Kampala. That would assure one country could be held harmless against "The Kids."

No. The Geek was being jocose. Even as a hedge against the loss of Iranian oil, China is quite pleased to sit back and watch--as it deals with its own homegrown Islamists.

In short, there will be no volunteers from anywhere willing and able to take on "The Kids." Any way the political-military cake is sliced, al-Shabaab looks to get the biggest piece. Worse, the auguries point to the better organized, more resolute, more ambitious internationalist faction winning out over the provincials so as to assure that Somalia will be both the long feared safe haven and a major exporter of both violence and political Islam.

Oh, well, as Allah wills.

Somalia Keeps Lurching Along

Somalia is not a "failed state." To claim this status a geographic expression must first be a state. It is not unimportant in considering the current and future policy of the US toward "Somalia" to understand the place has never been a state as such is generally understood.

Somalia is and always has been a purely geographic expression inhabited by diverse tribes made up of fractious clans with no national center and little in the way of national identity. After the tides of colonization and war had swept through the area, well-intended and high-minded foreigners decided the time had come to create a state. And, in a frenzy of prestidigitation hallowed by the UN, Somalia was summoned into existence. Most of the "citizens" of the new "state" neither knew of or cared about their new status as a member of the "international community."

Other than geographic location Somalia had little to offer in the way of advantage to either of the Cold War major players. By and large it was left as alone as if it existed on the backside of the moon. In no way did this lack of attention by the movers and shakers of the outside world perturb the majority of the locals who went along as always, as marginal agriculturalists, semi-nomadic pastoralists, low imprint fishermen, chewing kif, drinking coffee, practicing a rather laid back form of Islam and pursuing politics through poetry.

Those who were ambitious left. Or became warlords, wannabe warlords, and the trigger pullers for the warlords. The only clouds on the Somali horizon (other than getting caught in the crossfire between rival warlords) were the attentions of Wahhibist clerics fueled by Saudi petrodollars.

The seasons came and went. The warlords, clan leaders, and political poets rose and fell. The clerics preached. And, as far as the average Somali was concerned, little changed, even less did anything change for the better.

The pretend state, the artifact of guilty Western ex-colonizers, Somalia could have gone along in its timeless way little bothered by men landing on the moon, Berlin Walls falling, Marx and Lenin being dethroned, or the other bagatelles which meant and mean so much to the governments and people of real states.

Even the overtures of Islamist jihadists to Somalis were rejected. After all, these Islamists were foreigners, not like us Somalis. Somalis continued to feud, form transient political, economic, and social alliances as they had for generations almost beyond counting.

All of this changed following the decision by the US and other foreigners to intervene in Somalia under the UN mantel to address the humanitarian crisis perceived to exist in the wake of the collapse of the warlord government in 1991. The well-intended, high-minded effort led quickly to the use of military force with the initial goal of protecting aid workers. This modest intent rapidly morphed into establishing stability under a new government.

When the Somalis showed their lack of appreciation for American good intents by actually shooting at and even having the effrontery to kill US Special Forces men, the Clinton administration with the full support of We the People beat feet as fast as we could. Let the ingrates boil in their own juices was the universal sentiment.

And, so they have. The process of boiling has been enhanced by such purportedly well-intended efforts as paying the ever-so-eager Ethiopians to toss out the Islamic Courts Union shortly after it had established a government which seemed to be tolerable to the Somalis generally. The Islamic Courts Union was able to end the worst of the bloodshed and put a reasonable simulacrum of normal life in the place of armed chaos. The ICU was an opportunistic alliance of clan leaders, clerics (mainly Saudi sponsored Wahhibists), and what passed for the business community.

Being Islamist in orientation the ICU was not acceptable to the US. Overlooked in making this assessment was the domestic orientation of the ICU leadership. More importantly the US managed to ignore the way in which the ICU rejected the notions of global jihad and the blandishments of al-Qaeda. These concepts and people were, after all, foreign, simply not Somali.

The arrival of the Ethiopian kill, loot, and pillage team assured the departure of stability, a tolerable degree of peace, and any hopes for a better future which may have intruded upon the individual or collective Somali imagination. This consequence may have been unintended by the Deep Thinkers of Washington, but it was drearily predictable.

Equally predictable was the sequel. The emergence of al-Shabaab was inevitable. So also was the increasingly attractive nature of the Islamist jihadist narrative.

Years of flailing and failing on the part of Deep Thinkers and High Minded sorts alike finally led to the latest foreign creation: The Transitional Federal Government. The most recent outsider driven decision, that of anointing Sheikh Sharif as president of the TFG, was intended to rehabilitate the old ICU and thus confer legitimacy on the government du jour.

Now, bucko, here is where the rubber hits the road. Al-Shabaab and the TFG are both fragile, faction riddled assemblages of transient alliances, ephemeral allegiances. Neither the hyper-Muslims of al-Shabaab (or any of the other, smaller, warring Islamist jihadist groups) nor the Western approved TFG has any existential legitimacy. And, other than the capacity to reward (with money or power) supporters and punish enemies does either amphyctony have the slightest functional legitimacy.

However both of these "contestants" for ultimate authority share one critical and all-too-often ignored value. Both are opposed to foreign intervention. And, it must not be overlooked, both groups share a love for foreign money or goodies which can be exchanged for money and power.

The flood of foreign aid, specifically food meant to feed the purportedly starving majority, has provided an almost literal manna from heaven as demonstrated by the leaked UN Security Council report. The World Food Program aid has gone to corrupt TFG personnel, al-Shabaab leaders, and, last but not least, sticky fingered UN staffers and employees.

The aid both civilian and military fuels alliances and allegiances in both the TFG and the jihadists. It does not serve to promote the development of a unitary state, let alone one with the features so beloved in the West such as secularism, democracy, transparency of government or even a bit of basic honesty.

Nor does the aid serve to make the geographic expression, Somalia, less amenable to al-Qaeda or others of the global jihadist bent. In short, the efforts by the outsiders, including the UN, the US, the EU, have not done anything useful in the construction of a state. Nor have they made the world one whit safer from Islamist jihadism.

The challenge for the Obama administration (as if it needed another) is simply that of creative and effective disengagement from the Somali tar pit. Other than emulating the French and actually stopping pirates operating from Somalia or Puntland, the US has no interests in play which cannot be best served by getting out and staying out of Somali internal affairs.

It is a safe bet that the inherent Somali distaste for foreigners and foreign causes will continue to effectively inoculate the people against the virus of al-Qaeda in any of its many guises. It is an equally safe bet that continued well-meaning interference will facilitate the penetration of Somali minds by the global jihadist meme.

The old idea of "benign neglect" has much historically based evidence in its support. True it is hard, very hard for a Great Power, particularly a Great Power with beaucoup high minded progressive people gripping the levers of power to acknowledge the best course of action is one of turning a blind eye to an apparent crisis be it humanitarian or political.

Still the dynamic of the Somali culture and its history is one of leave-us-alone! This reality governs. The best way to help the Somalis develop their region, their collective life, their shared future is to adopt a hands-off policy.

The short-term will not be pretty. But, the ugliness will pass faster if we ignore its existence for a couple of years. The Somalis are competent to manage their own affairs, even if the result is not completely to our taste and liking. We should--must--draw only one line in their sand: No globally minded Islamist jihadists! No emulation of Taliban's intimate relation with al-Qaeda.

Beyond that leaving the Somalis to stew in their own juices is the fastest, best way to see stability return to that ancient geographic expression and the people who live there.

A (Very) Faint Glimmer Of Hope In Somalia

For reasons best left to a psychologist, the Geek has always harbored a degree of fondness for the Somalis. Perhaps it is because they formerly fought out politics with poetry contests. Perhaps it is because they formerly were a rather laid-back people in a country with a strange, eerie, and quite hauntingly lonely beauty.

In any event he has watched the descent into bloody Islamist jihadist chaos in recent years with a mixture of pity and loathing. The Union of Islamic Courts had little to recommend it as a government other than the fact it was better than the years of warlord driven fighting which preceded it. The US sponsored overthrow of the UIC by Ethiopia had nothing to recommend it. It was yet one more very bad notion of the Bush/Cheney administration which defies rational analysis.

If the intent actually was, as represented by the neocon ninnies of the time, the denial of Somalia as a safe haven for Islamist jihadists, it was a counterproductive failure. The Ethiopian Army did dispatch the UIC. Beyond that they simply opened the door wide for the far more objectionable Al-Shabab. This crew of Islamist jihadist thugs assured only that the situation in Somalia went from the Fifth Circle of Hell to the First.

Other than the highly unlikely use of Western (that means US) troops, the only hope for stability ever emerging in the unfortunate artifact called Somalia was that of al-Shabab alienating the locals by its own constant movement to the more extreme. When that happened, and given the experience of Islamist jihadists in both Iraq and the Pakistani FATA, it was more a matter of when than if, and if there existed in Somalia a simulacrum of government, there would be a chance of bringing peace back to the vast, silent land.

Sheik Ahmed Sheik Sharif was more or less elected by the Transitional Federal Government in concert with assorted foreign powers. The Sheik has much in his favor. He is quite popular in the south of Somalia which is also the area most heavily dominated by al-Shabab. And, he was a heavy, perhaps the heavy in the old UIC.

Ahmed Sharif has moved to exploit divisions not only within al-Shabab but between that group and the rival Hizbul Islam. He has also sought with some slight degree of success to gain the support of tribal leaders aligned with neither jihadist entity.

The excesses of al-Shabab seem to have reached a tipping point with its recent campaign to extract gold and silver teeth from the mouths of any Somali so "Western" as to sport such appliances. Not unlike the anti-smoking effort involving chopping off fingers waged by the Islamist jihadists of Anwar province, this "purification in the name of Islam" monstrosity proved to be over the edge in the eyes of the locals.

Apparently far more Somalis see themselves as possible victims of al-Shabab's novel approach to dental surgery than envisioned themselves liable to lose hands and feet to the machetes of al-Shabab's Shariah enforcers. The tooth pulling brigade constituted one fear too many.

In the eyes of many Somalis who cannot for one reason or another flee the place for the dubious comfort and not much more certain safety of refugee camps in Kenya, al-Shabab had overstayed its welcome. Beyond that, there was no reason to support al-Shabab anymore. The Ethiopians were gone. And, rather than providing peace, stability, and justice, the "Youth" were responsible for violence, chaos, and arbitrary, unpredictable violence.

At the same time the Transitional Federal Government is hanging on. Perhaps even more than merely hanging on given the increase in the number of voluntary recruits for the new security forces receiving both arms and training in Djibouti. The minuscule African Union peace keeping force of four thousand under-armed and under-equipped men have shown a new and welcome willingness to do more than simply defend a few blocks around the government headquarters and port.

With the prospect of victory receding and popular support melting faster than an ice cube at high noon in Mogadishu, divisions within al-Shabab are showing themselves. These are not surprising as al-Shabab has never had a tight organisational structure nor a chain of command with both legitimacy and coherence. And, beyond the imposition of its own version of Shariah, al-Shabab has not had much of a long range political goal.

It is these features which give some hope for Ahmed Sharif being able to snatch a reasonable approximation of victory from the wide open jaws of defeat. It is also what may make al-Shabab even more dangerous than it currently is.

The lack of a unifying vision makes al-Shabab open to the expansive notions which power al-Qaeda and similar Islamist jihadist organizations. Foreigners have been arriving in Somalia every day as venues such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and the FATA become too dangerous. From the perspective of any Islamist jihadist capable of strategic thought, Somalia, in conjunction with Yemen, is a very desirable target.

Yemen is under increasing threat from the Islamist jihadists as the spreading insurgency in the north of that country demonstrates. Should both Somalia and Yemen fall under complete or majority Islamist jihadist sway, the southern approaches to the Suez Canal would be in the jaws of a very hostile vise.

The government of Yemen is not much to write home about, but it is far, far more of a reality than is the TFG of Somalia. From the operational perspective, the more attractive area, the more vulnerable one, is Somalia.

Assuming that there are Islamist strategists as opposed to mere mouthers of slogans, the race is on. The race is between the ability of Ahmed Sharif to exploit divisions in the local jihadist ranks and the ability of foreign origin Islamists to take over and give both coherence and direction to the al-Shabab gunsels.

The course of the race will become more evident in the next month or two. The probable outcome will be apparent before the end of the year. While the Geek really does hope that Ahmed Sharif will pull it off for the sake of a good and decent people who deserve far better than they have been experiencing, the race is very much in doubt.

It will take more, much more than forty tons of US furnished arms and ammunition to tilt the race in the better direction. It is to be hoped the Obama administration realizes this before the finish line is reached.

The Irony Of Secretary Clinton And Somalia

If one is a maven of irony, the commitment made by Secretary of State Clinton to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia is truly delicious, thoroughly delightful. The Secretary advanced only one reason to justify her vow of assistance to Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed and his government.

Ready for it?

Here it is. Al-Qaeda. That's right. The reason is al-Qaeda. Or, more broadly, "terrorism."

The irony comes from the simple historical fact that it was President William Jefferson Clinton who ordered US forces out of Somalia in the aftermath of the poorly planned and worse executed operation which resulted in two Blackhawk helicopters down and eighteen Americans killed. It is true that the televised scenes of a dead American being dragged through the dust of Mogadishu while the Somalis cheered and hooted were both disturbing and redolent of savagery, but that was a very poor reason to cut and run.

Worse, the cut and run in the wake of such limited losses did nothing but embolden Osama bin Laden and others committed to the Islamist jihadist True Belief. The message sent to bin Laden and others by President Clinton was simple: Kill a few Americans and we beat feet with world record alacrity.

The irony is made all the more compelling by other actions of President Clinton. The responses by his administration (of which Ms Clinton was a member in all save title) to the truck bombing at Khobar Tower in Saudi Arabia, the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, and the attack on the USS Cole did nothing but encourage bin Laden and other Islamist jihadists.

The inappropriately mild reactions to these attacks convinced Islamists generally and bin Laden in particular that the US could not even aspire to the level of "paper tiger." The lack of a resolute American counter to the outrages perpetrated by al-Qaeda also convinced the Taliban dictator of Afghanistan, Omar, that there were no risks involved by continuing to harbor al-Qaeda following 9/11.

To put the matter short, brutal, and accurately, there would be no al-Qaeda, no terrorist threat, had it not been for the spineless, risk averse, overly lawyered Clinton administration responses to the provocations of the Islamist jihadists of the Nineties. When al-Qaeda could have been squashed like a grape, President Clinton and his administration lacked either or both the wit and testicular fortitude necessary to lift a foot and do the job.

It is quite true that the Bush/Cheney administration made a very bad situation much, much worse with their blunders. Both the Great Adventure in Regime Change in Iraq and the use of the Ethiopian proxy to rid Somalia of the Islamic Courts Union made life worse for much of the world--including Somalia. Having written that, it is still necessary to underscore that the primary responsibility for creating both the ongoing sanguinary effusion known as Somalia as well as the continuing threat of Islamist jihadist actions rests with President Clinton and those of his inner circle--including Ms Clinton.

Her commitment to the TFG is every bit as insufficient as were her husband's actions fifteen and more years ago. Providing some training and forty tons of weapons and ammunition are no more likely to stop the success of al-Shabaab then sending a few Tomahawks to Sudan and Afghanistan stopped al-Qaeda. If Ms Clinton and President Obama are actually serious about preventing Somalia from becoming a safe haven for Islamist jihadists including fugitives from both Afghanistan and Pakistan, they will have to promise far, far more than a little bit of guns and bullets.

If the region called Somalia is to be denied to the Islamist jihadists, it will take a very real and very bloody effort on the part of the US and other potential target countries. The imposition of even a semblance of stability on Somalia will require more than the African Union is willing and able to provide. It will demand far more than stand-off training and equipment. The task involves taking on and defeating a very well motivated force of irregulars.

The brutal ground truth is that the denial of Somalia to the Islamist jihadists necessitates one more war. That's right, it means fighting another war which the American public does not seek and will not support absent an attack upon the homeland.

Ms Clinton should have made no promises at all, if she is unable to acknowledge that the employment of American combat forces may--no--will be necessary if the Islamist jihadists are to be stopped. Since the SecState explicitly ruled out that possibility she should have made no "vow." At least that would have been honest. It would have raised no false hopes either within Somalia or other countries, such as Kenya, which are in harm's way as a result of al-Shabaab's success to date.

If Ms Clinton wants to make amends to the American people for the abject failure of the Clinton administration fifteen plus years ago, she should truck on back to Washington and have a heart-to-heart talk with President Obama. In a very real sense she has the ethical responsibility to urge Mr Obama not to repeat the disastrous errors of her husband.

She has the ethical responsibility to be honest with the president. To tell him in no uncertain terms that the only way to assure that Somalia will not become the next Afghanistan, the next safe house for Islamist jihadists, is to send US combat forces there.

Of course this is something she will not do. She, like the president, is too committed to the progressive cause, the Transformational Agenda, to be honest about Somalia, Islamist jihadist, or the shape of things to come.

Being a progressive True Believer Ms Clinton would rather shuck, jive, and lie to the people. Lie to the people of the TFG. Lie to the people of the region. Lie to the American people. Lie--and hope that the worst realistic case will not come to pass until she is out of office and her self-congratulatory memoirs safely in press.

And, that's a fact, Jack.