John Bolton And North Korea

John Bolton is a man with whom the Geek rarely agrees. At the moment regarding US policy toward North Korea, we are in tandem. The provocation for this rare moment of congruence is found in the WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121478274355214441.html?mod=googlenews_wsj.

Getting rid of the Yongbyon plutonium production reactor is a good idea. But, in and of itself the decommissioning of the reactor does not solve the major questions regarding the isolated autocracy's nuclear weapons program. Nor does it turn the overly aggressive Soviet era enclave into an outpost of peaceloving good nature.

Be that as it may, the US is rewarding the petulant paranoids of the North Korean regime for its current semi-bad behavior as well as its previous record as an international rogue.

The current administration may be doing the end zone victory high-five, but behind the smoke and mirrors of victory being celebrated without having been achieved lurk the big unknowns.

Unknown number one. Neither the fourteen month late Declaration nor earlier accounts under the 1994 Agreed Framework provide hard data on precisely how much plutonium was produced, extracted, made into weapons or remains somewhere on a shelf deep underground waiting fabrication.

Unknown number two. A similar state of ignorance exists regarding the availability in North Korea of warhead designs such as those found on the A.Q Khan network computer in Switzerland. The existence of designs based on tested and refined weapons both simplifies the fabrication process and nullifies the need for tests. Of course, better designs stretch a limited Pu-239 budget further.

Unknown number three. With the exception of the Yongbyon clone under construction in Syria, the full extent of North Korea's proliferation related activities is lost in the diplomatic fog.

Now for some knowns.

Known number one. North Korea is and always has been a secretive militaristic state given to selling weapons technology to states hostile to US interests.

Known number two. The North Korean clandestine service has engaged directly in acts of terror (albeit not recently) and the regime has given no credible evidence of having renounced this means of warfare,

Known number three. North Korea is an economic disaster area. Starvation looms for many North Koreans.

The US is sending food. Overall a half million tons of US grown food will be sent. The first thirty six thousand tons have arrived already.

The current administration stated that no linkage exists between the humanitarian relief effort and the issuance of the nuclear declaration. As an old spookworld saying has it, "Thank God for coincidence."

(It is passingly interesting to note that the North Korean regime rejected the South Korean offer of corn. Not the kind of response one would expect from a government dealing with massive food shortages.)

There was a clear, direct and open linkage between the North Korean (partial) fulfillment of its obligations and the US removing the country from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. In that North Korea remains under a series of other sanctions both unilateral and multi-lateral, the practical implications of this reward are limited.

The symbolic significance should not be overlooked. Removing this onus from Pyongyang will make it easier for the regime to receive aid, international institutional assistance and financing and other necessities of survival. Even the provision of food alone helps remove unpleasant burdens from the regime. If others are feeding its population; if others provide material and financial assistance, the regime will be free to focus its energies and resources upon the military and akin structures.

North Korea will be able to continue its sixty year old role as a regional thug as well as its more recent one of global troublemaker. The legitimacy provided Pyongyang by de-listing will free its hands for more mischief.

Regardless of what diplomats, past and present, might aver, this is no policy success. The diplomats along with the current administration might wish it to be such--they have so much political and personal ego invested in the process, but wishing does not make it so.

Smooth words and mood music regarding "verification" and continued sanctions as well as "engagement" do not cover the corpse of failure.

Neither do plaints regarding the "starving millions" of the North Korean peasants. For all the fond hopes and warm feelings of High Minded Humanitarians, the feeding of the multitudes is counterproductive. Full bellies will not bring smiles of peace.

The US did not win. John Bolton is right. The North Korean regime did.