Once again it appears that the current neocon ninny regime in and around the White House does not know the difference between feces and shoe polish. Unfortunately, it comes as no surprise.
The current administration has an unsurpassed record at not knowing who or what the enemy in the Great Global War on Terrorism might be. Why shouldn't it keep up its distinguished record?
This time around is a clone of the first. Way back when, We the People thought the goal of military operations was the destruction of al-Qaeda and its sort-of-state sponsor, the Taliban of Afghanistan. With a whoop and a hollar off we went (in horribly insufficient force) as the Great Posse of Justice to bring in Osama and company dead or alive.
Before the posse had done much more than rearrange some real estate in Afghanistan and allow the heavyweights of both "criminal" organisations to head south of the border down Pakistan way, the name of the enemy changed. It wasn't Osama anymore. The new blackest of the black was Saddam Hussein.
A larger posse was formed. The evildoer was toppled, hunted down, interrogated, tried and convicted. Hung. Case closed!
Not bloody likely!
Leaving aside several intervening years, events and deaths, a new villain emerged. Actually, the blackturban had been there all along. For some reason that is too arcane for the Geek to grasp, it suddenly served the current administration to (again) announce his existence.
Enter Iran, skulking with a centrifuge under each arm and an evil grin above the several day growth of beard.
The nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic as well as its support of anti-Baghdad and anti-US elements in Iraq to say nothing of its general record as a regional troublemaker are all good and sufficient reasons for the US (and others) to see the mullahocracy as a clear and present danger to both national interests and global tranquility.
Ignoring for now the window of engagement opportunity offered by the Tehran government in the wake of the 2003 invasion of Iraq which was idiotically slammed in the beards of the mullahs by the neocon ninnies, suffice it to say that adding Iran to the mix of unfinished business in Iraq and Afghanistan was ill-advised. No. It was blatantly boneheaded!
Equally gripless was the current administration's continued pretense that Pakistan was a full and effective ally in the Great Global War on Terrorism. Coddling the Islamists in Islamabad, in the Pakistani military, in the Inter Services Intelligence was somewhere between counterproductive and suicidal.
The net result of the shift in "Main Enemies" from the Taliban/al-Qaeda crew in Afghanistan to the Baathists of Iraq, when coupled with the initial failure to put enough boots on the ground in Afghanistan and wilful, continued denial that elements of both the Pakistani National Forces and ISI were complicit with the fugitive blackturbans in the mountains of FATA, was the regrowth of Taliban, the continuation and strenghtening of al-Qaeda and the emergence of a Pakistani version of Taliban as the de facto government in much of the FATA. That's real success.
For a long damn time now anyone and everyone with enough sense to know rocks roll down hill has acknowledged that there was only one way to eliminate the leadership cadre of al-Qaeda and the restrengthened refugee Taliban.
No. Not armed Predators, useful as those machines are. No. Not a major cross-boarder operation by US or Afghan National Forces. Too high visibility. Too complex logistically.
The way?
Employment of US Special Operation Forces in conjunction with CIA "pilot personnel" and their local agents. This approach has been sanctioned by doctrine and used effectively for many, many years.
CIA and other components of the US intelligence community have had highly qualified assets with full linguistic and cultural competence on the ground in the Afghanistan-FATA area of operations. The local agents are in place and (usually) capable. An indication of the pervasiveness and locally presumed effectiveness of the penetration is provided by the periodic reports (and videos) of the blackturbans "executing a US spy."
The special operations forces exist to go on into the mountains and valleys of the FATA and do the job. We the People now know that the plan for doing this has existed for months. We also know that the plan has been disapproved by the current administration.
The ostensible reason for this disapproval is fear of possible negative repercussions should the Pakistani government become aware of what we are doing. Or that the Pakistani government would not authorise our actions.
(See, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/30/washington/30tribal.html?_r=1&th=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&emc=th&adxnnlx=1214846804-MffwRuRYNt7YLQa7pOpq5w)
Oh? Really?
Cut to Iran.
Seymour Hersh who has a long and reasonably distinguished record for investigative reporting in national security affairs has published an account of the US clandestine operations underway in Iran from a base in western Afghanistan. His account appears in the current New Yorker. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh/?yrail
American Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) assets have been and are being deployed into Iran with a view toward potentiating the efforts of "dissident" ethnic minorities and assisting in destabilising the mullahocracy. Congress has funded the effort to the tune of some four hundred megabucks.
In principle the Geek has no objections to making the mullahs' lives a tad more unpleasant. In practice, the way in which the current administration is seeking to go about the job is--being as kind as possible--wrongheaded.
The groups we are seeking to potentiate are neither reliable nor aligned with longer term US interests in Iran or the region. And, as history well demonstrates, simply funding private wars never brings much a positive national policy result.
Now, walk this through with your friendly tour guide, the Geekmo.
USSOCOM and CIA "pilots" are not numerous. The time and effort necessary to find, select and train such people is extensive. There just aren't that many of them--yesterday or today or tomorrow.
In short, you've got to use them where they will have the most effect, the most positive effect in the accomplishment of national goals. Informed assessments come together on one point.
The point?
Using our linguistically qualified, regionally experienced USSOCOM and intelligence personnel to clandestinely work in FATA is infinitely more likely to pay dividends than frittering them away on the neocon ninny ambition of "quiet" regime change in Iran.
It's way past time to get a grip on this reality. You have to focus on your enemy if you're going to defeat him.
Shifting targets means you miss them all.
Got that, Decider and Commander Guy?
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2 comments:
History Geek, got to tell you - you blew it on this one.
First off, any time you rely on Seymour Hersh as a basis for information - well, that's just about the best way I know to ensure that you only get half the story right, and probably politically biased at that.
And that's what happened here....
First off, the entire effort (assuming there really is one) against Iran can best be viewed in light of activities occurring all the way back in 2006. And there were very good reasons for such SO DA efforts to occur.
Secondly, there's at least two primary reasons "inside the tent" as to why there hasn't been a concerted effort to use SO elements within FATA.
First, and this is more recent, excessive congressional interference with SOCOM leadership has sent a serious chill through the ranks - do not underestimate this. An unnamed Democratic Senator has put a senatorial "hold" on promotions for both Gen. Stan McCrystal and his Deputy over special operations DA activities that had occurred in Afghanistan.
Well, it's a pretty short hop for anybody else lower in the chain of command to realize that if you get on the wrong end of a senatorial snit over some alleged HR violation in Afghanistan, what the hell's going to happen over covert DA in FATA, where realistically, it's going to be a no-holds-barred, fight-to-the-finish, do what you got to do from the start. Does anybody out there really think it's going to be "holding hands and singing Kumbaya" out there in the mountains that make up FATA?
The second one is actually the bigger issue. It's "force protection" mentality vrs. "direct action" (DA) mentality within the military, and the political elite. Force protection has been paramount, all the way back through the prior two administrations, and this one. The DA folks are ready to take risks, and they understand it doesn't always go your way. But the rest of the System does not, and has shown (repeatedly) that they will do literally anything, including break OPSEC to derail DA efforts. And when things don't always go your way, or somebody gets their nose out of joint - well, it's "search for the guilty" time with the SO DA ranks.
Lastly, your missive against those dreaded "neocons" is a nice piece of verbage, but again misses the mark. Now, they're no help, but they are really a "btw" as far as this issue. Their biggest sin toward SO elements is that they just looked at them as one other piece to be moved around the board, never treating then as the scarce resource they really are.
Truthfully, the only insider (up to SECDEF Gates) who really cared about SO forces was (horror of horrors!!!) ex SECDEF Don Rumsfeld, who basically pushed funding and resources their way to vastly expand their capabilities. There were a few congresscritter types who helped out, but the names wouldn't jump out at you.
Sorry, but you missed the real story(s) out there on this one.
Remember the basic rule: "Hit the 25 meter target FIRST".
The Geek always enjoys and profits from intelligent, well reasoned disagreement. In this case, the Geekmo is going to stick with what he posted. Over the years--all the way back to when he first met Hersh, the Geek has found the man more often mostly right than really wrong--although much of the time one has to be inside the loop to parse the degree of rightness.
One result of having spent the best part of forty years in, around, near and in front of various components of the SOCOM community is that words are passed. There is--and has been--much pawing-the-ground with respect to activities in FATA. There has been an almost equivalent lack of favorable passion regarding the regime destabilization efforts in Iran.
One of the reasons for the lack of energetic commitment to Iran is past experience in Afghanistan. Institutional memory regarding the ill-advised endgame of the anti-Soviet proxy war. There is also a fair to excellent understanding by planners and executors alike regarding the motivations and character of the "dissident" ethnic minorities in Iran.
In the Geek's view the neocon ninnies are far more than a mere sidelight to all the debacles of the past seven years. (The Geek says that as a man who cast his first vote for Senator Goldwater.)
Ideology has its place in foreign affairs and policy but when it has pride of place policy suffers (and men die without positive result.) As for ex-SecDef Rumsfeld, the Geek will pass for now, given space limitations for a comment.
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