How Far Can A Collapsed State Collapse?

Sometimes it seems that Somalia is one of those amazing astronomical phenomena, an imploding star. For a while the collapse of a star makes sense, it cools and shrinks, cools and shrinks some more. Carried far enough the one-time stellar body becomes a dwarf and then a neutron star, cold and dense beyond imagining.

Then, life in the universe gets really weird. If the star keeps shrinking it rips through the fabric of space becoming a black hole--a portal sucking endless energy and matter to who knows where and for who knows what purpose.

Here, in the privacy and comfort of our own planet, Somalia is doing a mighty fine imitation of one of those collapsing stars. It now seems to be teetering on the edge of the final implosion, of becoming a terrestrial black hole into which many can enter and nothing useful emerge.

If you think back a few years, during the short and not-particularly-bloodless period of the ascendancy of the Union of Islamic Courts, the name Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed will come to mind. Before the UIC was ousted by the Ethiopian army at the behest of the "international community" he was one of the leaders.

At that time a group going by the name of al-Shabab was the armed (and quite dangerous) wing of the Islamic Courts. It was the guns of al-Shabab which propelled Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed and his associates into power. And kept them there until the superior firepower of the Ethiopians (temporarily) trumped the assorted Wahhabists and Salifists of the gun slinging youth.

The Ethiopian troops proved over the next two years to be far better at looting, killing and alienating virtually all Somalis then they were at stabilizing the resultant chaos. At the same time the African Union showed an ability almost unequalled--even by the UN--to talk, bemoan, wring hands, make promises and do nothing effectual as Somalia spiraled into a continuous state of collapse.

Somalia became a dwarf state, a red dwarf drawing its color from the blood spilled by both the Ethiopians and the varied internal fighters, most notably al-Shabab.

During 2008 al-Shabab's fighters--overwhelmingly the products of Saudi Arabian funded Wahhabist mosques--shot, knifed and beheaded their way through the country. Throughout the year the Transitional National Authority created by the "international community" stalled in endless internal turmoil and revolving door officials. As refugees fled to Kenya and Uganda and the Ethiopian army decided it had pillaged enough, the "international community" cast about for a (final?) solution.

One was finally found a few weeks ago. In an effort at reconciliation in Djibouti, the "internationals" hit on a solution to halt the implosion. It was decided to bring back Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed.

Now Sheik Ahmed was hailed as a "moderate Islamists." All the reasons adduced only a couple of years earlier for the necessity of removing the Union of Islamic Courts and Sheik Ahmed were forgotten. No longer was the Sheik the illegitimate head of a brutal, repressive, human rights violating bunch of Sharia powered thugs. Now the Sheik was the man of the moment, the new President of the New-And-Improved Somalia.

Presumably the folks in Djibouti, both Somali and foreign, believed (or convinced themselves, it is an open question) that Sheik Ahmed had the juice necessary to bring al-Shabab into the fold, to convince the jihadists to put aside their AKs and RPGs, their violent commitment to Sharia of the most bloody and repressive sort.

Apparently the lads of al-Shabab having become accustomed to the joys of victory, of stoning women, of decapitating apostates who somehow transgressed the nuances of the al-Shabab version of Sharia were not in a hurry to welcome back Sheik Ahmed and turn "moderate." For them, (to paraphrase Barry Goldwater in 1964) extremism in defense of Sharia is no vice and moderation in the pursuit of total victory is no virtue.

Al-Shabab is not happy with the Sheik. Other Somalis, particularly Sunnis of the non-Wahhibist, non-Salifist sort are among those who are, if not happy, at least willing to accept the Sheik as a force for peace.

Another group which is pleased enough with Sheik Ahmed is comprised of the Sufis of Somalia. They are so pleased with the Sheik and so displeased with al-Shabab that the Sufis have formed their own militia, the militia is named Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jama'a. Recently the militia has enjoyed defeating al-Shabab in a handful of skirmishes in central Somalia.

While the idea of Sufis as warriors may come as a surprise to most Americans and Westerners generally given the mystical nature of the ancient Muslim sect, Sufis actually have quite a record of both the will and the ability to fight. It might be recalled that the followers of the Mahdi in Sudan a century and a quarter ago, the so-called "dervishes" who defeated General "Chinese" Gordon and took a fair amount of killing a decade later by the Maxim guns of the Anglo-Egyptian expeditionary force, were largely Sufi in affiliation.

The Sufis must feel they have no choice. Wahhabist and Salifist doctrine holds that Sufis are heretics and thus, like all such apostates, must either repent or die. Al-Shabab has already demonstrated that it is not likely to shrink from this task.

The combination of Sufis and non-Wahhibist, non-Salifist Sunnis are both capable and increasingly motivated to offer resistance to al-Shabab and those such as al-Qaeda which support them. This means the sectarian predicated slaughter in Somalia has a real potential for rapid escalation.

Al-Shabab gives no hint of a willingness to blink as the conflict becomes eyeball-to-eyeball. The Sufis have no options other than flight or fight. The Sunnis in the middle have the same choice.

Against the backdrop of nearly two decades without an effective central government and considering the patent inability of those artifacts of the "international community," the AU, the UN or the International Crisis Group to do more than jawbone and pass resolutions, the probability of further sanguinary implosion looms large. When True Belief meets True Desperation, the black hole opens wide.

And, through that hole the remnants of Somalia as well as the hopes and efforts of the "international community" will be sucked to oblivion.