The ancient Chinese toast (and curse) is sure alive and well today. It seems that wherever a person looks on the international scene, feces and air impeller are colliding with typically unpredictable but nasty effect.
Consider the oil price game. Benchmark crude oil prices on the spot market have dipped as low as thirty-seven bucks the barrel. Great news, right?
Sure. For Americans it is better than the assorted economic stimulus packages presented by pork merchants and ideologues in Washington. For those who produce oil the news sure ain't as one color good.
Even Saudi Arabia and others in the Gulf Coordination Council need a steady base price in the sixty to seventy dollar range to maintain their expansive budgets. Iran, Venezuela and even Russia need higher prices given their ambitions in the military hardware department.
While the difficulties present for these later three countries may bring smiles of relief to Americans, the situation is not so simple. As economic pinching becomes more acute, governments historically have had a difficult time resisting the impulse to direct attention elsewhere. Say, at a "threat" to national survival or ambition.
While it is possible that Russia has matured sufficiently that the Putin Crew can resist tossing threats at the "Imperialist Camp," the lads in the Kremlin will nonetheless prove more rather than less difficult in diplomatic dealings over the short- to mid-term. The situation with respect to the other two bad boys of the oil producing world is not so straightforward given that neither regime has been noted for responsible, adult conduct of a consistent nature.
Iran is the much larger problem child. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has apparently known for three months that the figures it had regarding the Iranian production of low enrichment uranium (LEU) were based on "miscalculations." These Iranian miscalculations were cleared up back in November, but the IAEA only very recently released the new figures.
While many diplomats, nuclear observers and the like professed shock, there was no reason for these protestations of surprise. The information available from open sources demonstrated clearly that the Iranians would reach "breakout" level of LEU production early this year. The IAEA has confirmed this conclusion, reporting that the spinning centrifuges of the mullahocracy have manufactured a metric ton of LEU.
Reaching the minimum "breakout" level of LEU means that the Iranians could now, in principle, switch to the production of highly enriched uranium (HEU.) The mullahs now have the feedstock necessary to produce the twenty-five kilograms nominally necessary for a Mahdi Bomb.
Sure, to do this the Iranian government would have to toss the IAEA inspectors out, set more centrifuges a-spinning and generally make it evident to the world what they were doing. A rational actor might not be expected to take such a risk considering just how many nation-states are arrayed in potential (robust) opposition to this move.
Before we comfort ourselves with that view, we best get a grip on the number of times Revolutionary Iran has taken risks which have paid off. We also best get a grip on the unpleasant ground truth that the men who run the mullahocracy are possessed of an eschatological view which is frankly apocalyptic in nature.
Iran is also making some interesting noises regarding the view from Tehran regarding Bahrain. In language which is eerily reminiscent of that used by Saddam Hussein in the run-up to his invasion of Kuwait, the mullahocracy (or at least its designated spokesmen) have been describing the small country as Iran's "Fourteenth Province."
Bahrain has a microscopic population (roughly 750,000 a third of which is non-native.) The majority of the Bahrainis are Shia. Iran has successfully sponsored two pro-Iranian political associations in the country. Against this the Bahrain government's two thousand man police force has stopped a number of Tehran-backed terrorist actions and may have penetrated the hostile political groups effectively. Beyond this the government has moved to include Shias in the government and meet some--but not all by a long way--of the impoverished Shia majority's economic needs.
Saudi Arabia has, at least rhetorically, extended its protection over Bahrain, but that is a very thin deterrent shield given the House of Sand's past record, as in the Gulf War. The US Fifth Fleet operates out of Bahrain so the American umbrella is present, but not necessarily, given the gestalt of reality today, credible enough.
All on its lonely own Iran is a sufficiently unpredictable and occasionally irrational actor to assure the times today would be more than merely interesting. Of course, Iran has company--and plenty of it.
There is North Korea. The Hermit Kingdom of the North seems to be locked in a perpetual case of the "terrible twos," tossing one international temper tantrum after another. The latest one is ostensibly the result of South Korea's conservative Lee Administration having cast a chill on relations between North and South.
More likely there is a form of regime change occurring in the Hermit Kingdom of the North. Even if the Dear Leader (who has never been a monument to stable, responsible behavior) is alive and more-or-less well, there is sufficient reason to posit that more robust, hard-line types are calling many, if not all, the shots.
The country is broke, many of its people literally famished. North Korea needs massive amounts of foreign aid. But, the aid must come without attached conditions or foreign monitors of any sort or nationality. The aid must be provided not as a matter of humanitarian charity but as a "free-will offering" between equals.
In short, the leadership cadre intends to coerce what the country needs. The temper tantrums involving the far-from-settled nuclear problem or the perspective launch of the made in North Korea ICBM constitute a form of international protection racket. Like the two year old in the grocery store, the North Koreans will stop their tantrum if they get enough candy from the rack.
Of course, as any parent knows, giving in to the tantrum simply encourages a sequel. As between people so it is with nations, peace can be bought but only at an ever increasing price.
Ah, the times they just get more and more interesting.
Over in Pakistan, matters of peace are progressing as expected. Fazlullah has "reservations" about the agreement entered into by his "moderate" father-in-law, Sufi Muhammad. The nature of the reservations have not been dilated upon but will be soon in an upcoming meeting between the several parties of Taliban in Swat, government in Islamabad and the in-laws. What do you want to bet that Fazlullah demands more Sharia and less Islamabad in Malakand?
In Islamabad anonymous US Embassy wallahs are favoring the agreement between government and the Taliban-in-Swat crew. They (apparently honestly) think (if that is the right word) the agreement will somehow drive a wedge between the less "extremist" Fazlullah and the more "extremist" Taliban types in the FATA. One may be forgiven if one gets the impression the folks in the embassy have been sampling some of the crops grown in Afghanistan.
In a further, quite delightful wrinkle, "mainstream" Islamists (whatever that term might mean in the Pakistani context) have made a serious proposal to the government. The proposal? That Pakistan cozy up to China in order to escape "the clutches" of the US. These "mainstream" Islamists argue that both China and Pakistan are "victims" of a "US conspiracy." Perhaps they too have been testing the commodities from Afghanistan, but being Islamists that would be scarcely necessary.
Ah, Pakistan, on its own, the folks there would make the current times more than sufficiently interesting.
In Afghanistan the situation continues to go down the tubes. The decision by the Obama Administration to place another 17,000 pairs of US boots on the ground is as welcome as it is late in coming. One can only hope that the boots are on the feet of combat soldiers and not a plethora of REMFs. Guns in the hands are needed, even more than boots on the ground, if Taliban and al-Qaeda are to be denied a military victory.
NATO will be providing more warm bodies, but few of these will be in uniform and even fewer possessed of guns and the authority to shoot them. NATO will be furnishing civilians to "improve the government" (which is desperately needed to be sure,) "improve the justice system" (as if there is any meaningful crossover between Sharia or the Quran on the one hand and European legal systems on the other,) "staunch corruption" (good luck on that one unless the US and other countries decriminalise narcotic drugs,) and "fight drug trafficking" (ah, fer sure, dudes.) All these may be worthy goals, but none are really relevant in the midst of a war which is being lost by the putative good guys.
It deserves noting in the Afghanistan context that Iran has offered assistance. An Iranian vice-president has stated that the Iranian government and businesses stand ready to "pour" investment funds into the country in infrastructure and similar projects. Who says that Iran, broke or not, fails to make large plans and have grand ambitions?
Al-Shabab seems more than ready to go all the way and then some in its pursuit of Sharia Paradise on Earth in the geographical expression called Somalia. Their ranks increased by teenage jihadists from Europe and the US (particularly from the huge Somali refugee communities in Minnesota (of all places,) al-Shabab is willing to accept the Sufi and moderate Sunni challenge.
The refugee stream which will inevitably result from a widening of the sectarian warfare will have a profound effect on Kenya and other neighboring countries. The impact of the refugees will be at least equal to and will probably surpass that of people fleeing Zimbabwe for South Africa and other "frontline" states. You can hear the cries for immediate assistance for the "humanitarian crisis" ringing loud and long from the bootless African Union and the High Minded of the UN.
What with Sudan/Darfur, Somalia, and Zimbabwe, Africa would be sufficient to assure that we live in interesting times.
But, there are more. There is Palestine. There is Israel with a new even more to the Right government. There is the underlying war of Islamism against the ideals and worldviews of the West. There are the profound and long lasting effects of the global economic disaster against which the measures of the US and EU governments have not proven efficacious as yet.
The Geek reckons that right now, the interesting times referred to by the Chinese toast or curse falls squarely on the curse side.
What about you? How do you see our interesting times?
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