As a historian specialising in interventionary operations, the Geek is as predisposed to discount public assessments by high ranking military personnel as he is the statements of presidents and potentates generally. However, there are other indications which independently support the Patraeus position.
One of the most important is the clear dominance of Taliban as both the initiator and recipient of military operations. Even a year ago al-Qaeda was featured equally with Taliban as the actor of insurgency in Afghanistan. No more.
This is not surprising. Al-Qaeda has always been the junior partner in the Afghan war. The majority of the trigger pullers as well as the most effective leadership has been in Taliban. The Taliban, despite outside assistance from Pakistani organs headed by the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has been authentically Afghan. While foreign fighters have been killed in confrontations with US and other forces, they represent a distinct and quite small minority of bodies buried and captured.
Removing al-Qaeda bases from Afghanistan is encouraging, but is unimportant in and of itself. The defeat of Taliban as a military reality is far, far more important whether in the context of a purely punitive expedition or in that of leaving behind some semblance of a functioning nation-state.
The US and its partners including the Afghan national government are a bunch of Texas miles away from that goal. And, the forced relocation of al-Qaeda from Afghanistan to the FATA of Pakistan in no way contributes to the possible success of Islamabad against its Islamist jihadist adversary.
Before taking a short dekko at Pakistan, it might be instructive to reflect on the latest "human rights abuse" out of Afghanistan. This latest add-on to the "American war crime" of last Monday may well be a case of very good news hiding in the cloak of the bad.
Nadar Nadery who is described as a member of Afghanistan's human rights commission has hinted that the US employed white phosphorus (WP) in its air strike in Farah province last Monday.
WP (also known in the jargon as Whiskey Peter and Willy Peter) is a chemical added to some artillery and air delivered munitions to provide screening smoke. It may also be used for night illumination fire missions. It is also a fearsome anti-personnel munition. WP was widely used in both World War II and Korea in the anti-personnel role. In Vietnam a cynical saying which was heard on patrol and in the firebases alike was, "Willy Peter make you a believer." Meaning: It made the people down range dead, painfully dead.
While there are powerful, perhaps irrefutable indications that the Israeli Defense Forces used WP improperly during its combat operations in the Gaza Strip, there have been none to the effect that US and other foreign forces have employed it Afghanistan in other than a limited number of screening applications. The reasons for this are simple. The military commanders in the Afghan AO are not inclined to hand the opposition a perfect propaganda weapon. Second, WP is less effective than other, more conventional munitions in the current combat setting.
Neither in the Farah province operation nor in an earlier one in Kapsia province have US forces used WP. If WP was used it is far more likely that it was employed by Taliban. This chemical can be delivered by small caliber mortar shells. Taliban has such. It is used for screening. Taliban, once engaged by US and other forces, is often in need of screening to break contact. Taliban's fire control capacity is less well developed than that of the US and associated forces.
The Doctrine of Inherent Military Probability points directly at Taliban not the US and associated forces as being the user of WP in both alleged incidents. Considering that Taliban, in common with all Islamist jihadist groups, uses civilians as shields, the culpability of the group becomes all but incontestable. Finally, the use of civilians as human sacrifices on the alter of victory sought through propaganda reinforces the case against Taliban to the level of "beyond a reasonable doubt."
Should the latest wrinkle on the "American war crimes" theme gain legs it will encourage Taliban to aim its mortars with more intent and deadly effect upon civilians. By doing so the Islamist jihadist hopes to both offset the ever increasing military advantage enjoyed by the US and International Security Assistance Forces as well as stimulate a groundswell of highly vocal disapproval among the chattering classes of Western Europe and the US.
This, of course, is a tactic of desperation. One which recognises that a clear cut military victory is not likely, perhaps not possible. For Islamist jihadists whose cavalier attitude toward civilian life is approaching legendary status, a few human sacrifices for Allah and victory over the infidels and apostates is a very small price to pay. After all, it is so easy to say of those writhing in pain as the WP burns through to the bone, "Allah knows his own."
Taliban in Pakistan will probably be going the human shield, human sacrifice route now that the Pakistani government appears to be serious about defeating its trigger pullers in Swat. Perhaps propelled by the fear of a military coup, the government has authorised both an advance into the Taliban dominated region and the redeployment of forces from the Indian border. Adding to the possibility that the current assault against Taliban is genuine and not a sop to American pressure is the moderate but real chance that the government of Pakistan and the ISI have decided the djinn they let out of the bottle is too dangerous to continue.
Working from the historically validated predicate that ISI pursued with the full agreement of the military to seek strategic depth by putting Taliban into power in Afghanistan, both the ISI and the new civilian government along with the military high command may have decided that there is a better way to achieve the same goal. The better way is the full collaboration between the more or less democratic and ever-so-slightly secular governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Failing an effective rapprochement between Kabul and Islamabad, the government of Pakistan faces the possibility of surrendering influence in Kabul to India, which is heavily involved in infrastructure and other projects in Afghanistan. At the same time the current regime in Islamabad is caught in the jaws of military coup and Islamist jihadist takeover with all that entails. The civilian government of Zardari and company has a finely honed sense of self-preservation. Neither a coup nor a Islamist takeover would be desirable.
Given that the Pakistani military is biased toward high intensity war with India and its competence at counterinsurgency is so low as to make the IDF look good at the game, one can only feel sorry for the civilians caught in Swat. While the government is trying (ineptly) to deal with the refugee flow and encourage other civilians to leave the Swat AO, Taliban has mined the roads and is taking other measures to assure they have a plethora of civilian shields and sacrifices.
Taliban has no hope of defeating a determined multi-brigade Pakistani army operations. Rather, it must rely on revulsion in Pakistan and other countries against the civilian butcher's bill to win the campaign for them. The more civilians who die or who live in wretched, under supplied refugee camps, the better are Taliban's chances of coming out on top in the current affray. And, "Allah knows his own."
But, the more Taliban in Pakistan, like its cohorts in Afghanistan, relies on turning civilians into highly visible bullet (and Whiskey Peter) catchers, the closer it is to actually losing. Get a grip on that.
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