Syria Flexes Its (Troublemaking) Muscles Again

One of the really fun aspects of assessing developments in Mideast politics is Syria. For a long time now it has been near or at the top of the troublemaking heap. It doesn't seem to matter if the actions taken by Damascus in Lebanon, Iraq or in facilitating Hamas are in Syria's best interests or not. Bashar al-Assad is playing a game even more devious than did his father.

Getting a fix on the possible strategic goals of the younger Assad and his cohorts sure ain't easy. Some of the imperatives seem to be quite obvious.

Syria wants the Golan Heights back in toto without any genuine constraints upon its free exercise of complete sovereignty. That has to be on the top of Bashar's list as it was his father's.

Syria has never left its ambitions to exercise complete hegemony over Lebanon. While the old dream of physically incorporating Lebanon into some sort of Greater Syria may have faded, the same can't be said of the desire to exercise a reasonable simulacrum of sovereignty over the place.

Finally one must not overlook Bashar's desire that Syria be taken every bit as seriously as a major regional actor by the US and other Great Powers as it was back in the days of his father's long rule. It is important that the Ego of Bashar not be underestimated when considering the factors entering Syrian diplomacy and foreign policy. It is critical to recall that the younger son was never expected (nor did he himself expect) to succeed his father. It is equally critical to bear in mind that Bashar has had to fight, and fight hard, in order to establish himself as the national leader and not a puppet in the hands of his dad's Old Guard.

North Korea, and, even more, Iran, have shown that the way to be taken seriously is to be an obstacle to American objectives. Even better, to show the capacity to dial up and down the interference with the realization of US goals.

It is this last factor which makes the recent reports credible of the old pipeline for martyrdom seekers, which had been valved down by Syria last fall, being back and running. The ramping up of foreign origin martyrdom seekers has been exhibited dramatically in the recent upsurge of suicide bombings in Baghdad and Mosul.

The tension between the recognised reality that Islamist jihadists are again moving into Iraq from Syria and the announced policy of the Syrian government came into sharp relief on May Day when the Syrian ambassador contended that his government supported a stable Iraq and wished to assure the US could leave the country pursuant to the timetable established in last year's agreement. It is a tough circle to square.

But, not impossible.

Another circle desperately in need of squaring is the relationship between Iran and Syria. This diplomatic tie was tightened recently when President Ahmedinejad visited Syria. While there he purportedly spent time with assorted terrorist leaders as well as Bashar al-Assad. Admedinejad had enough time in between gabbing with the capos of Hamas and other "hardline" Islamist groups to gnosh and talk with the Syrian president. Bashar al-Assad was pleased enough with the meeting to characterise the Syrian-Iran alliance to be "strategic" in nature.

In comparison the meeting between two mid-level Americans with the Syrian president passed by without any official or media attention in that country. As a response to the Obama administration's attempt to repair the relations between the US and Syria, this comparison must have been a tad disheartening. And, a very real warning.

The trick to squaring the circle is twofold. The first is scarcely a surprise: Israel or, to err on the side of accuracy, a settlement with Israel which gives complete and unencumbered sovereignty over the Golan Heights back to Damascus.

The second is a bit more surprising. The US must convince Syria that it is not going to abandon its role in the Mideast. That the US is not going to surrender the field to Iran. Particularly a nuclear armed Iran.

Bashar al-Assad, no more than any other Arab state leader, loses no sleep over the "plight of the Palestinians per se. They are Hecuba to Bashar and he is Hecuba to them--unless cranking up Hamas or some other Islamist jihadist bunch serves Syrian strategic interests. The Palestinians can rot as long as Syria gets the Golan back. Get a grip on that. And, take it to, if not the bank, at least the bargaining table.

Nor is Basar al-Assad any more enamored of the Tehran mullahocracy than is the House of Saud. The Iranian bi-lateral relationship is "strategic" as long, and only as long as it appears that the US might turn its back on the Mideast. Syria is coppering its bets to cover this not-implausible possibility.

The hidden irony in the so called "fifty-seven state solution" which, according to Jordan's King Abdullah II he worked out with President Obama and will be publicly put on the table by Mr Obama during his speech from Cairo to the "Arab and Muslim world," is that a comprehensive settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conundrum would seem to allow the US to gracefully withdraw from the Mideast scene. This would leave Iran as the regional Big Guy.

However the US plays the game of the "fifty-seven state solution," it must at the same time reassure Syria of its ongoing presence in the Mideast. Making the job more difficult is the need for the US to at least match the Iranian offer of a free hand to Syria in Lebanon.

The fact that the highly efficient and lethal Syrian clandestine services have made no move in Lebanon against the rapidly blooming Hezbollah hints at an understanding between that Iranian puppet and the boys in Damascus. The US must match, and, if possible, better that offer if the Syrian policy circle is to be squared. Whether the US is in favor of the idea or not Syria will play an ever larger role in Lebanon's internal affairs under whatsoever convenient guise.

Syria is a very critical player in the region. It is a player that was alienated and mistreated by the policy makers of the Bush-Cheney administration. We continue to undervalue the importance of Syria to a balance of power stabilized Mideast only at our peril. Even if the Israeli-Palestinian problem is settled, the Mideast will be most stable if there is an internal balance of power between the several major powers, including Syria.

Get a grip on it.

While you are at it, President Obama, you might get a grip on history. Particularly the history of sanctions. You might note that it was a sanctions regime which drove Cuba into the Bear's arms.

Sanctions are not going to have a positive effect in Syria either. They are an affront to the nation's dignity--and Bashar's ego. Far from reducing the will or ability of Syria to "support" terrorism, they will do the opposite.

Oh, well, "When will they ever learn?" is the constant refrain of American foreign policy.