Lebanon, Hariri And The UN

Five years ago the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated in Beirut. The results were both dramatic and--at the time--seemed far reaching. The administration of George W. Bush was quick to condemn Syria as the architect of the killing and suspended diplomatic representation in Damascus.

The US was not alone in pinning the blame on Syria. The UN did so as well when it created a special investigative unit focusing on the killing. The first head of this creature of the Security Council was Detlev Mehlis, an experienced German prosecutor. Mehlis lost no time accusing the Syrian government of executing the assassination. Arrests were promised--and made.

Then the great crime fighting adventure petered out. Mehlis was replaced by a monument to doing nothing, Sergi Brammertz, a Belgian judge. When Brammertz slept his way out of office in late 2007, he was replaced by the more energetic Canadian, Daniel Bellemare.

Mr Bellemare's effort was upgraded by the UN in status but it was too late for anything real to come out of the investigation. Indeed, the four Lebanese security officers arrested by Mehlis had to be turned loose. The task of indicting low level operatives could not be accomplished. Of course this meant and means there is no chance of ever proving the initial contention that the Syrian government at the highest levels was directly responsible for Hariri's death.

While the UN creature floundered and frittered, events in the Mideast moved on. Hariri's son, Saad, became Prime Minister. The Iranian/Syrian proxy, Hezbollah, became an effective component of the government. And, Syria once again became a prime actor in Lebanon's political theater.

Sectarian conflict both real and artificial have declined markedly following the "Cedar Revolution" which occurred in the wake of the Hariri killing. Balancing this was the emergence of Hezbollah as a prime factor of Lebanese politics. So important is Hezbollah in the internal stability of Lebanon that the "tail" of Hezbollah is waving the "dog" of the Beirut government particularly when it comes to threats of war with Israel.

The strength of Hezbollah as well as its relations with Damascus could not have been far from Saad Hariri's consciousness when he met with Bashar Assad last December. Equally in the foreground of PM Hariri's thinking was the role of Lebanon as a battleground should push come to shove between Hezbollah and Israel.

The steady rapprochement between Hariri's portion of the Lebanese government and Syria renders the ongoing UN investigation into the murder of five years ago not only irrelevant but potentially dangerous. Present and future realities loom far larger than the solution of a cold case homicide.

The Obama administration has shown (thankfully) an awareness of this. The reestablishment of full diplomatic relations with Syria is not only overdue, it is critical to gaining some traction toward that ever-illusive goal of a Mideast peace settlement. As has been argued many times in this blog, Syria is a rational actor with a firm price for participation in a peace agreement with Israel. It is also a key player with respect to either letting loose the terrorist dogs of war--or restraining them.

After some early missteps Bashar al-Assad has shown himself to be his father's son. He has the same overarching goal of regime preservation. He is realistic regarding Syria's strengths and weaknesses. He has a keen appreciation of the necessity of balanced and conflicting sponsors or supporters. As his father played the Soviet card with skill so also does Bashar play the Iranian one today. In both cases the goal was the achievement of leverage with (and even over) US policy so as to keep the regime in place.

US interests are best served by a constricted Hezbollah, a stable Lebanon, a lessening of Iranian influence in the region and some movement toward a comprehensive Mideast peace. The achievement of these goals requires the willing cooperation of Syria.

Syria's price is not low. Damascus wants a free (even if disguised) hand in Lebanon. The Golan Heights must be returned to Syrian sovereignty. The US must show it is not so fickle as to cut and run whenever something unpleasant happens in the region.

The current Lebanese government is realistic enough to understand that Syria will play a role, a major role, in the country. It is Beirut's preference that the role be played directly albeit covertly by the Syrian government and not indirectly and openly by Hezbollah.

The Hariri ministry is also realistic enough to understand that should Hezbollah and Israel go to war the major loser will be Lebanon and its current government. Syria is a potent force against war--or at least a war which is not authorized by Damascus.

The Obama administration would be well-advised to follow-up on the normalization of diplomatic relations. A necessary and very small step in the right direction which would benefit both Lebanon and Syria is the use of our influence in the Security Council to pull the plug on the investigation of the Hariri assassination. The charade has no use, not now, not ever. The sooner it be allowed to die the better.

At least this move would be an easy one. No risk and high payoff. A good sort of warm-up for the far more daunting task of convincing Israel that the Great Golan Land Grab must come to a speedy and complete end.

That, bucko, is a very real toughie!