The US Gets The Old "One-Two," Again

The US has a remarkable--and completely baseless--faith in economic sanctions. The number of times such pressure has gained a positive policy outcome since the Colonial response to the Stamp Act over two hundred years back is so close to zero that no real distinction can be drawn.

More typically sanctions whether unilateral or of the multi-national sort are without effect at best and counterproductive at worst. Doubters might want to take a dekko at either the progressive slew of sanctions imposed on Imperial Japan (and the ultimate effect at Pearl Harbor) or those of George H.W. Bush on Panama--a country so dependent on the US that it used the dollar as its circulating medium--and the aftermath, Operation Just Cause.

Regardless of history and its lessons we have been at it again in the Great Iranian Nuclear Caper. To date the sanctions imposed by the UN have been without discernible effect, or at least, a noticeable, positive one. The reasons for the failure are well known and have been commented upon many times in this blog.

However, we are about to go through the motions, the well-scripted, well-choreographed and quite over-rehearsed dance of more UN Security Council sanction effort. And, once again, in an equally well-scripted, well-choreographed, over-rehearsed ploy, the Iranians and the Trolls of Beijing are moving to block or at the very least denature the US sponsored move.

Ahmedinejad made the first gesture even as he crowed over the launching of a payload of turtles, earthworms, and other lesser critters on board an Iranian rocket. The Iranian Orator-in-Chief made conciliatory noises to the presumed effect that maybe, perhaps, the Iranians just might accept the long standing UN brokered exchange of Iranian low enrichment uranium for higher octane stuff from abroad.

The Iranian ambassador to the UN International Atomic Energy Agency could not confirm the substance of his boss's statement. Neither did he deny it. The old Tehran shuffle was in play.

While Tehran shuffled, the action passed to the Trolls of Beijing. This well-practiced bunch came on stage not only on cue and on their mark but with the dialogue each and every well-honed ear around the world knew would be coming.

The ForMin got the lines. He delivered them in Paris not that many days after SecState Clinton had warned from the same city of Chinese "isolation" should they not get on board with the new sanctions. The ForMin, Yang Jiechi, opined that sanctions would not be in order given the "new" Iranian willingness to give diplomacy a chance.

Yang's timing was most unpleasant for his French hosts. The French are on the verge of assuming the Security Council's rotating presidency and they had meant to make the most of it. French PM Francois Fillon was chomping at getting the opportunity to grab the spotlight and demand the next round of sanctions, the "crippling" ones so often alluded to by Ms Clinton.

The Chinese position is pretty much of a show-stopper. No glory for the French. No pain for the Iranian regime. And, no gain for the Obama administration.

Any sort of sanction which would not be slapped down by a Chinese veto will be of such an inconsequential nature that no Iranian would notice it. Unless, of course, propaganda purposes would be served by so doing.

The UN Security Council will pass something. The Chinese will probably accept the passage of one more piece of symbolism without doing more than deploring and abstaining. A Security Council resolution of any nature is the necessary prologue to what might actually be for real sanctions by the European Union.

Russia is sort of on board for a Security Council action as the Bear's ego was bent by the Iranian rejection of the first cut of low-for-midrange uranium exchange. The Kremlin really believed they had a more "mature" relationship with the Mullahs of Tehran. The boys really don't like to be proven wrong.

Of course it is impossible to have a "mature" relation with Iran--unless you simply bow down to the will of Allah as interpreted by the Supreme Leader and his clerical coterie. Nor can mere discomfort such as that presented by the sanctions both old and the new, improved, "crippling" sort outweigh in the Tehran calculus the good which possession of a nuclear capability would automatically provide.

The reality is that Iran is run by a crew of True Believers with a strongly eschatological bent and shrewd dreams of regional hegemony and global player status. The only counter-force to the regime and its supporters is the domestic opposition.

Clearly a careful orchestration of effort between Concerned Civilized Countries and the domestic opposition is not beyond the realm of the plausible--and possible. Coupled with wide-ranging sanctions which undercut the already flaky Iranian economy (and, of course and necessity, mean real pain for the average Iranian regardless of his position on the political spectrum) a full-bore support for the domestic opposition carries the strong potential of pushing the regime over the edge with results as good for the world and the Iranian people as fatal to the regime.

In the Goldilocks game of diplomacy there are always three options. One will always be too cold--in this case, sanctions per se. One will be too hot--the "military option." The third has the potential for being "just right." This means the combination of open support for the opposition and a genuine attempt to ruin the Iranian economy lock, stock, and barrel.

The "just right" alternative perforce will be messy. And bloody. But, it beats the alternatives of having a nuclear capable mullahocracy or a very unpleasant and far from small scale war.

The clock has about run out on the Obama administration in this game. The number of viable options has dropped to one. And, only if the administration finally comes to terms with the real world and not the fantasyland it has been living in for a year now.