Speaking With The (Customary) Forked Tongue

Not that many days ago President Obama was in London.  He spoke at some great length and with all apparent warmth and sincerity regarding the special relationship between the US and UK.  Long and loud were Mr Obama's praises of the relationship between we former colonials and the Mother Country.  He even took pains to distort and warp history so as to present a smooth and attractive face of relations unmarred by differences or disagreements.  All in all it was a typical bravura performance by a man for whom words trump actions.

As the mood music played Prime Minister David Cameron and his fellow ministers seemed to take it in.  Smiles and gestures of appreciation all over Westminster.  The shake and grin of the year went well as did the State Banquet at the royal palace.  The president and his "team" undoubtedly boarded Air Force One secure in the belief that they had pulled a successful fast one on the Brits.

Like a pirate ship lowering its false colors and raising the Jolly Roger, the true face of the Obama administration's view of the UK and its "special relationship" came to the fore mere hours later.  While the diplomatic protocols demand forewarning, the hoisting of the skull and crossbones at the meeting of the Organization of the American States (OAS) must have sent a chill through Her Majesty's Government nonetheless.

On 7 June 2011 the US joined all the other members of the OAS in approving a draft declaration on "the question of the Malvinas Islands."  The draft declaration demands that the UK negotiate the status of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas, if you are pro-Argentinian) with Buenos Aires.  With this move the US not only linked itself with such profound anti-American regimes as that of Hugo Chavez but stiff armed the British with great gusto.  The US is quite well aware that the UK is not willing in the slightest to negotiate with Argentina or to compromise its long standing sovereignty over the islands.

The US position is not new.  Secretary of State Clinton put it forth back in March 2010 against the backdrop of shrill protests coming from Buenos Aires over the impending arrival of an exploratory drilling platform prospecting for oil in the 200 mile exclusive economic zone surrounding the Falklands.  At that time Her Majesty's Government made their displeasure known, directly and firmly.  It is clear that Mr Obama and his "team" value our alliance with the UK very little regardless of the splendid torrent of oratory poured by the president in the halls of Parliament.

The stance taken by the Obama administration at San Salvador on 7 June serves the US ill.  The demand for negotiation supported by the Clueless Man in the Oval not only devalues the link between the US and the UK, it ignores completely the right of self-determination for the people of the Falklands.  The residents of those faraway and lonely islands have made it quite clear time after time that they are not only British but they desire to remain under the governance of the UK.  There is no desire on the part of the islanders to speak Spanish or live under the sway of the Argentine government.

Any possible questions of sovereignty were settled back in 1982 when the government of Argentina, a military junta, ordered the invasion of the islands after having ended the ongoing and quite desultory negotiations of that distant day.  Much to the surprise and dismay of the generals running Argentina, the British did not accept the accomplished feat but chose to fight back.

In the resulting Falklands War the US after a short period of sitting astride the fence came down flatly on the side of the UK.  Swimming against the tide prevailing at the OAS, the Reagan administration took the position that Argentinian aggression must not be allowed to stand.  The US provided important intelligence to the UK as well as assorted munitions.  When night finally fell on the war, Britannia was victorious.  Aggression had not been allowed to stand.  Most importantly, the Falkland islanders were confirmed in their right to be British.

The Britishness of the islanders is the bedrock of Her Majesty's Government's policy regarding the islands.  Put in terms that even the Obama administration might be able to comprehend: The Britishness of the islanders is non-negotiable.

For a very long while the government(s) of Argentina accepted the verdict of war.  But over the past few years the Argentinian government has been seized by an every growing yearning to plant their flag on the islands regardless of the desires of the locals.  The reason is simple, consisting of three letters: O I L.  There is a chance that a significant oil field exists far below the cold and stormy waters surrounding the Falklands.  With dollar signs in their eyes and envious of the new Brazilian offshore fields, the fine folks at the top of the Argentinian political and financial trees now covet the Falklands.

Apparently following his default position of appeasement brings friends and influence, Mr Obama and his people have thrown the lot of the US behind the ambitions of the Argentinians.  As Mr Obama declared his willingness for We the People to become the best customers of Brazil's new fields, so also must he believe that we should purchase oil from the liberty loving democrats in the country which brought the world Juan Peron and his lovely wife, Evita.

There is no doubt but Ms Clinton or one of her smooth talking subordinates can give a fine sounding justification for this reversal of American policy.  They would invoke the magic of "stability" and hint that the democratically elected government might be replaced by one more junta if the civilians do not redeem the lost patrimony of the islands.  Conceivably the lads and lassies of Foggy Bottom might question the ancient claim exercised by the UK over the islands and choose to ignore the outcome of the more recent war thus concluding the Argentinian claim to be more valid.  Or they might simply say the OAS is the vox populi of the hemisphere and its will is binding upon us--and the UK.

Any such pettifoggery is, beyond question, a crock of caca.  The real deal--other than Obama's reflexive need to stick it to the Brits whenever given a chance--is the conclusion that the UK no longer has the military capacity to defend the Falklands successfully.  That conclusion has a corollary.  Any future passage of arms over the Falklands will necessitate an American participation.  Such participation will be far more extensive than was that of twenty-nine years ago.

The sad reality is the UK lacks the resources it deployed back then.  It no longer has the aircraft carriers and other naval assets which allowed it to mount an amphibious operation over the monumental distance which separates the UK from the Falklands.  Simultaneously, it is true that the Argentinian military is stronger today (at least on paper) then it was.  Moreover, it is probable that Buenos Aires could count on the active support of Hugo Chavez and other leaders for whom the West is a nest of capitalist, imperialist exploiters.

In the event the Argentinians get muscular over the Falkland Islands, the US will have to choose sides.  If it honors both its values and global interests Washington must align with London and be the outsider at the OAS.  If, to the contrary, the administration goes with its ideological predilections and personal prejudices, it must line up with the OAS majority in support of Buenos Aires.  In that event the close, long standing, and quite critical relationship between the US and the UK will be as dead as George III.

Mr Obama has been a one man disaster area in US foreign relations.  Compared to Obama the days of the Bush/Cheney regime constitute a high point of American diplomacy.  In no area has the Obama approach to foreign affairs been more fraught with long term injury than the corner into which the president and his "team" have painted the US over the Falkland Islands.

In essence the Nice Young Man From Chicago has pointed a loaded gun directly at the guts of Uncle Sam's foreign relations.  And he has placed the trigger in the hands of the less than rational Argentinian government.  Get a grip on it: By the action of 7 June the Obama administration has set the stage for a blunder compared to which the invasion of Iraq seems almost like an act of brilliant strategic statesmanship.