Wow! Is Hezbollah Amped Or What?

The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, did a fine imitation of a rooster in full flush on al-Manar TV in Beruit last week. Of course, the man did have something to crow about--victory.

While the Lebanese Army stood around with its collective thumb up an anatomically improbable location, its commander waited the call---

No. He wasn't waiting for a call to arms. That came. He declined.

Michel Sleiman, the reluctant general became Michel Sleiman, eager president. That was the call he wanted. He got it.

From Hezbollah. Nasrallah characterised Sleiman as "our ally" in his speech and further declared (no doubt accurately) that the Lebanese National Army "will never be used to disarm us."

Between that statement and the fact that the agreement worked out in Doha gives Hezbollah the effective veto in the new government, Nasrallah has the strings of the puppets in his hands. Not a bad few days light work for a militia which no doubt had some kind of fun killing Sunnis and Druze or for negotiators who labored in the upscale surroundings of Qutar with the full support of both Syria and Iran.

From the reaction of George W. Bush (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aNbQ4atY9pn8&refer=africa) one would get the idea that somehow democracy had triumphed in Lebanon. If the current Decider Guy really believes that, Nasrallah doesn't agree.

In his speech, the Hezbollah jefe maintained that his organisation had defeated the democracy movement in Lebanon and the government it had produced. He extended that undoubtedly accurate observation with another. By the success of the armed (can we say, "terrorist?") action and the Munich Conference in Doha, Nasrallah decreed Hezbollah had shown Washington that it could not move ahead with its "freedom and democracy" strategy anywhere in the Mideast and particularly in Lebanon.

The Geek ain't going to argue with that proposition.

Of course, the Geek has long held that the neocon ninny notion of imposing democracy in the frightfully infertile soils of the Mideast was a non-starter since assorted neos first muttered about the need for doing such nearly twenty years ago. History shows that efforts to impose democracy are exercises in futility compared to which masturbation with steel wool is both productive and enjoyable.

Nasrallah offered an alternative model to the "peace and democracy" strategy. It is one that he is certain will prove to be as successful elsewhere in the Mideast as it has just been in Lebanon.

He urged Hamas and Islamic Jihad to continue using "terror operations" on the Hezbollah model against both Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He also stated flatly that Hezbollah will support armed action against what he termed the "political process" in Iraq.

The phrasing "political process" is vague but implies to the Geek that Nasrallah means supporting actions directed against the current regime in Baghdad as well as the US and Allied forces. This could make for some interesting complications concerning Hezbollah's relations with Iran as both Iran and the current Iraqi government are Shia in affiliation.

Perhaps that is why the General Secretary moved quickly to add that Hezbollah was proud to be under the Vilayet e-Faqih of Iran. Nothing like a strong declaration of loyalty to the Khomeinist version of Islamism/jihadism to pour preemptive oil on the waves.

The affirmation of faith must be taken in conjunction with the challenge Nasrallah heaved to the West generally and both the US and Israel in particular when he stated that Hezbollah would fight any external intervention and that it had showed the way of successful "confrontationism."

The Geek has seen too much both directly as a practitioner and vicariously as a historian to be of an alarmist nature. Nonetheless, he is of the view that Hezbollah is a greater threat over the near- or mid-term than al-Qaeda.

If nothing else, the Hezbollah victory in Lebanon makes the possibility of an Israeli-Syrian rapprochement move from the "slim" category to the "essentially no-chance-in-hell" level. It also may serve to embolden the mullahocracy in Iran at a critical time when the mullahs are running out of viable options to deal with the combination of economic collapse, social unrest and external pressure.

Hezbollah saw its opportunity and took it. Successfully. One can only hope that Tehran (or Qom) doesn't see the Lebanese model as a guide for for Iran.

Is Osama bin Laden Getting Catty or Just Losing It?

In his latest audiotape, al-Qaeda Symbol-in-Chief, bin Laden, sang one of his long time faves, "Death to the Zionist Entity and the Apostate Arab Leaders Who Protect It." This time he added some new lyrics.

Specifically the hermit sage named names and pointed fingers.

Bin Laden pointed his Flying Finger of Blame at Hezbollah. The name he named was that of Hezbollah's capo de tutti capi, Hassan Nasrallah.

Apparently the al-Qaeda Leader In Hiding was unimpressed by the outcome of the Hezbollah vs Israeli Defense Forces match up back in 2006. From the Geek's perspective, Hezbollah did very well against the IDF. Much better than, say, Taliban against the minature US invasion force and its Northern Alliance confederates four years earlier.

Maybe Osama is bent out of shape because he is the Running Man while Nasrallah sits in front of al-Jeezera cameras.

Deep in his twenty-two minute rant, the Troglodyte Sheik rhetorically demands why Nasrallah and his Hezbollah fighters allowed the UN peacekeepers "to protect the Jews." The Mystic of the Mountains alleged Nasrallah was deficient in manliness. "If he was honest and has enough (resources), why then he did not support the fight to liberate Palestine."

Golly, Mr bin Ladan, you sure do ask the tough questions.

Perhaps Nasrallah stopped fighting when he did because he has enough brains to know that Hezbollah had won. Did you consider that, Osama?

Hezbollah did win in a substantial and meaningful way. The IDF lost heavily. Israel did not accomplish any of the goals for which its military had been employed. Hezbollah gained status with Sunnis and Shias alike. It showed to its sponsors, Iran and Syria, that their investments had been well worth the price.

Perhaps Hezbollah's greatest victory in 2006 was undercutting Israeli self-confidence, certainty and political will.

It's second greatest victory?

The al-Qaeda Pontificator told us that. Hezbollah has replaced al-Qaeda as The Great Hope of Islamic Irredentism.

The rise of Hezbollah to the top of the Islamist/jihadist charts rebounded to Iran's advantage as the audiotape acknowledges. Bin Laden's admission comes in characteristically backhanded fashion. He accused Iran of wanting to dominate the Mideast--a charge he usually levels only at the United States.

Way to go, Nasrallah! You've pushed Iran ahead of the US at least on points.

Interestingly, the tape made no mention of the recent events in Lebanon where the US supported government failed in its attempt to rein in Hezbollah. Either the tape was made long before these events or The Grand Interpreter of Allah's Will did not want to give Hezbollah even more credit.

Hezbollah has emerged in the past two years as a major player in Mideast politics and Western anxieties. It has done this as al-Qaeda has faded.

Hezbollah has shown itself able to successfully confront Israel both directly and through proxies. It has treated with its "host" government as an equal--perhaps as something more than a mere equal.

In comparison, al-Qaeda and its Fugitive Generalissimo have managed to have their "host" government destroyed. In addition, the Peerless Band of Godly Warriors have managed to make themselves detested in Iraq, distrusted in most of the Mideast and doubted in the rest of the Muslim world.

No wonder Osama is feeling poopy and letting it show.

This leads to several questions--

The first is simply, what is al-Qaeda going to do about its diminished status? Skulk around in the mountains of the Pakistani Tribal Agencies or stage a spectacular act?

The Geek would hope for the first but prepare for the second. Al-Qaeda is down but most assuredly not out.

The second question is: Should the West, particularly the US, put Hezbollah and its chief sponsor, Iran, on the top of the International Worry List? The answer to that is self-evident.

There is a third question. What ever happened to Adam Gadhan? Was he killed along with Abu al-Laith last January in Mir Ali, Pakistan by a Predator launched Hellfire? Or is the one time California environmentalist studying for an advanced degree at some backwater madrassa?

The Geek misses Adam's translations since it means he has to improve his Arabic--a distasteful expenditure of time and energy.

Come on back, Adam (if you're still with us), we need you.