Sunday, December 27, 2009

Who Is Janet Napolitano's Dealer?

The Geek has no idea just what sort of mood and mind altering drug the Secretary of Homeland Security is taking. But, it sure must be a pronounced capacity to change perceptions of reality.

The Secretary reportedly averred that the "system worked" in the failed attempt by a Nigerian Muslim to down a Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas Day. Her strange version of actuality was duplicated by White House flack Gibbs. That the official mouthpiece of the administration took that line isn't surprising in this day of The-President-Can-Do-No-Wrong. Heck, lying like that is what Mr Gibbs is paid to do just like his predecessors.

But, the Secretary of Homeland Security is presumed to have a sounder grasp on the reality of threats presenting themselves to the US, its population, and internal interests. To conclude in the face of already compelling evidence of systemic failure that the "system worked" is both delusional and erosive of public trust and confidence.

The only part of the "system" which worked to prevent a horrific incident was the quick and effective reaction on the part of a Dutch film director and others among the passengers. Ms Napolitano alluded to this, "Everybody played an important role here. The passengers and crew of the flight took appropriate action."

Duh!

What about the rest of the "system?" What about all the watchlists, data bases, all the other features of post-9/11 life created by Congress and two administrations? Were they all totally out to lunch? Or, was this sort of attack virtually impossible to predict in detail even with some warnings of an al-Qaeda in Yemen orchestrated event and the finger pointing done a month back by the suspect's father? Was this sort of attack, like that of the "shoe bomber" Richard Reid eight years ago, impossible to interdict even with the high level of security awareness which has existed for years at Amsterdam's international airport?

The most important piece of context surrounding the Detroit affair is simply that the terrorists, the Islamist jihadists, always hold the initiative. The nature of the terror groups, their capacity to use lone actors, to be devilishly inventive in countering security techniques combine to confer a high order of initiative upon them. Without very detailed warning intelligence, it is very nearly impossible to detect and interdict a lone actor executed attack prior to its commencement.

Schiphol Airport the Geek knows from personal experience had excellent security measures in place long before 9/11--and these have in no way degraded subsequently. The reality is that the detection of eighty or so grams of PETN contained in a pouch not more than fifteen centimeters in length in or near the groin is very difficult to detect absent a strip search or a very, very careful pat down of the region in question.

Eight years ago the security measures were not delinquent when Richard Reid got on his target flight with PETN equipped shoe firmly in place. It is doubtful in the extreme that the Dutch were asleep as the bomb endowed Abdulmutallab boarded his target flight.

In both cases, Reid and Abdulmutallab, the failure of the "system" to detect and interdict was equaled by (1) the failure of the detonating devices in shoe and crotch alike and (2) passengers who were possessed of quick reflexes and a powerful desire to keep on living. Accident coupled with fast reactions, not governments and all their apparatus constituted the "system" which worked.

Basing policy on this happy concatenation of bad luck and good reflexes is a very poor notion, but that is all that can be expected much of the time given the advantages which automatically accrue to the terror specialists of the Islamist jihad. The American public if not members of the current administration have had a very cheap "teachable moment" with the event on Christmas Day. We have been reminded in a quite dramatic way that when push comes to shove, we have nothing and nobody to rely upon beyond ourselves--and each other.

In the real world, we and each other, our capacity for self-help and mutual assistance is the "system" which operates where the rubber hits the road of life. With respect to terrorism we are all that we have. Everything else including intelligence, watchlists, data bases, security, armed forces, everything the government disposes from the local cop to the State Department is back up. At best.

If Janet Napolitano would refrain from covering her boss's political hind end for a few minutes, not take her mind altering drug for a bit, perhaps she would realize that ground truth. More, she would both share and celebrate her new found understanding with us--the people (and system) which matters.

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