Milestones: Getting Rid of Fantasy

Knowing whether or not we are winning (or at least not losing) in Iraq is not easy. As in all unconventional wars, wars without frontlines, measuring relative success or failure is one tough proposition.

The experience in Vietnam showed that metrics such as body counts, weapons captured, or actions initiated by the enemy were worse than useless. So, these old indicators have been consistently and to some extent correctly downplayed in Iraq.

An alternative seemed needed.

In a fit of blundering that almost equals the decision to invade Iraq in the first place, the deep thinkers inside the beltway came up with an alternative. Ta-Da! You guessed it. Milestones!

Milestones, artificial constructs which have been advertised as the almost-no-fail way to measure the degree to which the Iraqi government and military are improving, becoming increasingly able to handle domestic unpleasantness without US assistance. Milestones, artifacts which presumably will assess the productivity, the effectiveness of our military and non-military efforts in pursuing the chimera of nation building and the reality of defeating the insurgents on the ground.

It is interesting to consider how the US government might rate using analogues to the milestones which will be featured in the mid-September "Progress Report" for which all hands in Washington appear to waiting with the cliched "baited breath."

The Geek proposes that we or somebody rate the US government's progress with regard to the following critical items, all of which are fair counterparts of the milestones established for the Iraqi situation.

The effectiveness of government policy in lowering the price of gasoline and related energy prime movers and assuring equality of availability in all fifty states.

The development of cost effective alternative energy sources (excluding frauds such as corn based gasohol which profits agribusiness at the cost of higher meat and milk prices.)

The availability of low cost, patient-friendly, effective health care delivery system(s).

The degree to which the federal government has been successful in lowering all forms of violence within the United States including but not limited to the destruction of violent criminal gangs and the elimination of cross-border trafficking in all types and forms of controlled substances.

The ability of the government to control the borders of the United States so as to reliably interdict the crossing of all or at least the vast majority of illegal aliens.

Focusing tightly on the government itself: Has the influence of corporations and other massive entities upon the legislative process and the electoral process alike been ended or significantly and demonstrably curtailed? (Have the denizens of Gucci Gulch been put on the endangered species list?)

The Geek invites others to add to the list, but even without additions it is easy to see that Congress and Administration alike would fail to pass the same type of milestones which have been produced for the infant government in Iraq--a country which, the Geek hastens to point out for the umpteenth time, has no tradition of democracy, pluralism, free enterprise, but has a long history of regionalism, factionalism, personalism, and being united only at the muzzle of a strongman's gun.

Proponents of milestones for Iraq should take a short look at our own history. They might consider our regionalism. Take a look at our sectarian violence (see for example the draft riots in New York City during the Civil War.) Mull over our ethnic conflicts. Even take a gander at the way in which John Kennedy had to nearly disown his own Catholic faith to gain the White House in 1960.

These proponents, some of whom hyperventilate about corruption in the Iraqi government, might review the history of the 1960 Presidential Election in which Kennedy family and mafia family money flowed freely in several key states and in which the dead of Chicago cemeteries voted early, often, and Democratic.

Less these proponents think the Geek picks only on Democrats, particularly the Saint of Camelot, then they can take a fast peek at the (very strong) possibility that Richard Nixon interfered illegally with US foreign policy in a matter of war and peace so as to assure that his Democratic opponent would not benefit from any bombing halt or peace negotiation in 1968.

In short, the Geek rejects the notion of milestones as a way to measure the relative success or failure of our and the Iraqis' efforts. The milestone concept is as wrong as grilled watermelon. It is totally, completely, and irredeemably irrelevant to the realities on the ground in Iraq. It is an idea whose time has not and never will come.

So, what now, Geek? We have to have something, anything that can let us know if we are getting ahead or falling behind in Iraq.

Fear not, there is another way. Next post (unless some politician or journalist or academic hacks the Geek off.)