Take Us Seriously, Dammit!

Years ago the Geek commented at the National Defense University, "Hey, don't worry, the Russians will be back and we had better treat them as if they are a Great Power.'

The response from the audience can be charitably characterized as a cross between a groan and a snort. The Geek shrugged and smiled.

Well, the Russians are back. Back in a way that heralds another foreign policy challenge to the United States. We may not be looking at The Cold War: The Sequel, at least not yet, but the years ahead look as if they have the bi-lateral warmth of October in Murmansk.

Get a grip on these first chilly winds.

There is the dust-up between Moscow and Washington (and NATO) over the basing of acquisition radar in the Czech Republic and a limited number of interceptor missiles in Poland. The US and NATO consider this scheme to be desirable as a defense against any intermediate range missiles launched from northwest Asia (read Iran). Former KGB heavyweight and current Russian President Vladimir Putin alleges that the interceptor missiles are aimed against Russian ICBMs.

Putin's position is, to put it politely, crap. Even an ex-KGB man must know that any Russian nuclear strike against the US will come over the North Pole, not southern or central Europe. The hyperventilating out of the Kremlin over the plan was a first and not at all subtle hint that the Russians believed that they were not being shown the respect to which a Great Power is entitled.

This interpretation was reinforced when Putin countered the American proposal with one of his own. The idea was that Russians and Americans would jointly operate an existing radar installation in southern Russia with the implication that Russians would join with US personnel in manning the interceptor missile site.

The idea has much merit as noted by former US Secretary of State and not notably Russophile Henry Kissinger. While the Geek has rarely agreed with Henry the K, as he used to be known, about much (for example his lame brained notion of building up the Iran of the Shah as the regional hegemonic power in the Persian Gulf) we are in tandem on this one.

While there are a number of reasons to be suspicious of the workability of the Putin proposal, not the least of which is the likelihood that the Russians would use the opportunity for technological espionage, it is still worth the political effort of serious discussions with a view toward making the proposal work.

Another indicator of the long standing Russian national inferiority complex again asserting itself is the recent announcement of plans by the long semi-defunct Russian Navy to shake off its salt water coma and build a fleet of aircraft carriers and supporting ships so as to present a counterbalance to the unchallenged dominance of the USN in sea control and force projection capabilities. On the surface of it the Russian plan is risible. It takes more, a very great deal more, than mere ships and planes to constitute a carrier battle group. This is an area where the US has a seventy-five year advantage in experience.

The Russian navy plan should not be viewed as the emergence of a near- or mid-term threat but rather as another demand to be taken seriously as a Great Power. It is a demand that must be heeded if for no other reason than to prevent the possible threat.

Then there is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The SCO is not a household or MSM word. Not yet. It should be. The SCO comprises Russia, the Peoples' Republic of China and three of the Central Asian republics. The stated purpose of the organisation is military cooperation against "terrorist" threats. The real purpose is to provide a credible counterweight to the US in Northwest Asia.

Get a grip on these two SCO items. Iran has observer status with the group and Putin has stated he would like to see Iran join as a full partner. Right now, today, "anti-terrorist" wargames are underway in Russia with contingents from all SCO "partners" participating.

Kind of reminds you of the old "monolithic Communist conspiracy," doesn't it?

Sure, the SCO isn't monolithic, isn't Communist, and isn't a conspiracy. However, it is not or at least should not be a development welcome in Washington. It is another sign of the Kremlin flexing its take-Russia-seriously muscles.

Another piece of muscle flexing was the past week's planting of a Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole as part of a "sovereignty claiming" expedition to an area under the Arctic ice that Moscow claims to be national territory. The lads in the old home of czars and commissars want the world to know and acknowledge that treaties to the contrary notwithstanding, the oil believed to lie under ice, water, and seabed is theirs.

There's no need to join Denmark and Canada in teeth-gnashing and breast-beating over the Russian's mediagenic event. Even Al Gore won't argue that the polar ice is going to melt that fast. Still, it is another indicator of the real Russian need to be taken seriously.

As a final hint of the "New Russia" consider the decision to re-start long range reconnaissance flights into areas dominated by the US and NATO. Just today the US was forced to deny the claim of the Russian general commanding long range aviation that American fighter jocks had "exchanged smiles" with the crews of ancient four engine turbo prop TU-95s near Guam. The Russian general's statement brought a crooked smile to the Geek's lips. The resumption of the TU-95 flights after a nearly fifteen year hiatus did not.

The current administration has not been taking the Russians seriously. They put up with this for awhile. The lads in the Kremlin waited, perhaps hoping the American tune would change. They were wrong. As is too painfully obvious, the present bunch of "decider guys" don't have the courage to admit they were wrong and change policy.

President Bush (and VP Cheney) had best get a grip. Putin has issued another warning: Russia may withdraw from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Not good.

Even if Bush and his band don't change the US melody, the next administration will have no choice. The next administration will have to take Russia seriously.

Or the chill winds out of the Kremlin will turn down right glacial. As history has shown repeatedly, the Bear won't let himself be kept down for long.