The US and Turkey--Go For the White Meat, Not the Dark

Right now, the US is almost, barely, kind of winning on the military front in Iraq. At the present, our "ally" in the global war on terror, Pakistan, is suspended on a string over the Islamist maw. As I write, the current Administration and many in the mainstream media are casting narrowed eyes and making not-so-veiled threats at the mullahocracy in Iran (with the favor returned on steroids.) Our other "ally," in the region, Saudi Arabia, goes on exporting wannabe jihadists and suicide bombers as it becomes China's number one oil supplier.

Just another fun filled day in the whacky world of US foreign policy.

None of these business-as-usual manifestations bother the Geek. What's annoying him is the situation in Turkey. Well, to err on the side of accuracy, not what is happening in Turkey so much as the possibility that the US will create another completely avoidable mess for itself.

Turkey's majority party is called the AKP. After recent elections, the ruling AKP was returned to power with forty-seven percent of the vote giving it 341 of the 550 seats in the parliament. That was a significant (12 percent) improvement over the preceding election. The Prime Minister, a gentleman named Recep Erdogan, for the second time has proposed his foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, to be the next president of Turkey.

That's the situation. Simple. It's made a little more complex by the requirement that the successful candidate for president receive a two thirds majority in parliament. Last time around, before the most recent elections, Gul didn't get the super-majority. Neither did he get the magic number last week when the parliament had its first round vote.

Still, that is not the problem. Gul will be elected. No doubt about that. Under the Turkish constitution, all he needs is a simple majority when parliament votes a third time.

Here is the problem. The AKP has its roots in an old Islamist party. Turkey is a secular state. Many Turks fear that somehow Gul, Erdogan, and the AKP will roll back the secular reforms which date back to Kemal Ataturk more than seventy-five years ago.

Not only do many (but not most) Turks fear this worst-case outcome, so also do some in the west, particularly bloggers who post on sites such as Maverick News Networks and the Gathering Storm. Looking at the history of Turkey as well as its pivotal geographic and ideological position between the Islamic crescent and the West, the Geek does not share these dark shudders.

No. What the Geek finds worrisome is the probable reaction of the US and the European Union membership (particularly France) to the emergence of a slightly less robustly secular Turkey.

While other, earlier Islamist leaning parties in Turkey have either self-destructed, been totally rejected by the Turkish voters, or been banned by judicial decree, the AKP restructured itself as a secular, European oriented, economic progress seeking party. In this new variety, it received impressive endorsement by the less than monolithic Turkish electorate.

It is true that Gul's wife is a devout Muslim who wears a headscarf. That's a headscarf, not a burka she wears. It is true that AKP has made some mild criticism of some aspects of the Ataturk legacy.

That scarcely makes the AKP or Erdogan or Gull a screaming supporter of Tehran. It does not begin to make them enemies of the West.

The Geek has long held that geography and history have served to make Turkey one of the key if not the key ally of the United States in the region. He has made this judgement on the basis of what is in the relationship for the US. The benefits for us have been the same whether back in the Cold War or during the more recent days of Islamist threat.

Turkey is both a bridge and an outpost. It is a bridge between Europe and Northwest Asia, between the West and the Islamic regions stretching across central Asia and down to the Persian Gulf. It is likewise an outpost, allowing easier collection of vital information, providing a base for soft-power (and perhaps hard-power) projection. In short, it is for the current regional dynamics the equivalent of West Germany during the Cold War.

Erdogan and the AKP well understand that the economic future of Turkey depends upon its role as a bridge. Turkey needs effective regional trade with Iran, Iraq, the Central Asian Republics. Turkey needs better relations with Europe including membership in the European Union.

The AKP has a historic chance (and the Geek does not use that term lightly) to alter the basic nature of Turkish politics. Given its broad mandate, it is possible that AKP will replace the Army as the ultimate guarantor of democratic processes in the country. Given the same mandate, it is possible that AKP will spark a badly needed process of reformation in Islam by showing that a state can be fundamentally secular without destroying the beneficial impact of religion, specifically Islam, on matters of social and economic justice.

If AKP is to have the chance to prove itself, some outside help is needed. The US must, absolutely must, help the Turks in countering the PKK (Kurdish insurgents) operating from the Kurdish region of Iraq. We must do this in our own interests. Currently, only nine percent of the Turkish public sees the US favorably. (A much higher percentage sees Osama bin Ladin favorably.) More shocking, nearly three-quarters of the inhabitants of this fellow NATO nation, whose troops fought and died alongside ours in Korea, think it is likely that the US will invade Turkey.

Beyond giving effective aid in countering the PKK terror attacks, Washington must accept Ankara's attempts to reach commercial and diplomatic understandings with both Iran and Syria, much as the current Administration detests both regimes. Turkey has coinciding national interests with both Iran and Syria many of which are spelled k-u-r-d-s. Others involve oil and water, two critical fluids both in the region and around the world.

The European Union would be very well advised to act quickly and favorably on Turkey's pending membership application. It would go a long way to settle long standing frictions regarding Turkish national employed and living in European countries. Mr Sarkozy, who maintains he is more pro-American than his predecessors as French President. should pay attention to both European and American better interests and support the Turkish application.

Many critics of Islam including some Muslims have argued that Islam needs a reformation similar to that which hit Christianity five hundred years ago. Turkey, because of geography and history, has the best chance of bringing a reformation into existence.

Give the Turks a chance. Give the AKP a chance.

It's in the world's best interests.