Saturday, August 11, 2007

We Blew It Before. We Can Blow It Again

Syria and Cuba. Cuba and Syria. Don't often think of them as linked, do you?

The Geek sees a real, definite, and very instructive relation between them.

"Phooie," says you.

"Get a grip on this," replies the Geek.

The US government, with the support of the overwhelming majority of We the People, likes to pretend obnoxious regimes don't exist. Or, perhaps we think our moral purity will be tainted if we have any normal contact with icky-poo governments.

Consider this. We the People and our government were very, very angry at the Bolsheviks for winning in the Second Russian Revolution, pulling their troops out of World War I, and then going about a series of definitely not-nice internal measures. As a result we wouldn't recognize the Communist government or have normal diplomatic and commercial relations with the Soviet Union for more than a decade. When FDR moved to normalise relations, to exchange diplomatic delegations, and generally to behave as though a country extending across a third of the world's time zones really did exist afterall, a large number of Americans hyperventilated to the point of turning blue. (They wouldn't turn red for obvious reasons.)

In 1949 the Chinese Communists of Mao had the unmittigated gall to defeat the corrupt and inefficient government of Chaing, who had been declared by no less a foreign policy authority than Time/Life publisher Henry Luce to be both "our man in Asia" and "a true democrat." We the People huffed and puffed something fierce--particularly those of us who are Republicans. The question of the day was, "Who lost China?"

Of course it is hard to lose a country containing a goodly chunk of the globe's population, but that didn't bother us. No sir. We wouldn't recognise that Mao, the Chinese Communists, and the billion or so who lived under their authority existed. We went on for more than twenty years pretending that Chaing was still the man and Formosa was still China.

Even though Richard Nixon had impecable credentials as a commie hater and had very, very fine geopolitical reasons for ending the diplomatic coma, more than a few of We the People--generally Republicans of the right margin--predicted the End of the World As We Know It.

You get the picture.

To zero in on Cuba. In the months before finally ousting the gangster-loving, high-living, rotten to the core jefe grande, Battista, the insurgents of the 26th of July Movement headed by Fidel Castro were heros to many members of We the People. Indeed, the documents show that the Old Regime cashed it in when the Eisenhower Administration cut off military assistance and suggested that Battista and his ilk might want to consider retirement.

They retired, swag in the bag, and Castro took over. The new government in an excess of revolutionary enthusiasm held trials in a soccer stadium to the cheers of the most blood thirsty crowd since the Terror of the French Revolution. Up north We the People were shocked and horrified.

Shock and horror turned to something worse when Castro and Company proceeded to expropriate properties owned by Americans including Mobil, Texaco, Standard Oil, the Mafia, and others. That was theft! Stealing! Worse, it was a mugging by a Communist!

Fidel was a Marxist, no doubt about it. He was also a Cuban. No doubt about that either. The real question in 1960 was which was paramount: Cuban or Communist?

Without any real, persuasive reason our government with the cheers of We the People decided the answer was Communist. We lifted our skirt to keep the hem free of of commie cooties, sniffed like the stereotype of an old maid librarian passing a drunk on her way to church, and pretended Cuba didn't exist.

Didn't exist that is except as a target of a total economic embargo backed by all the diplomatic leverage the US could muster. Didn't exist that is except as a target for fabricated coups, manufactured invasions, and failed assassination plots.

At this point, 1961, was anyone surprised when Castro embraced the Soviet Union?

If anyone was, they must have been severely mentally challenged. The Soviet Union was the only option if Castro, the Revolution, and Cuba were to continue as living entities.

Of course the yahoos within We the People cackled that Castro was showing his true color (red) and the entire Western Hemisphere would soon fall prey to the bear if we didn't continue to insist that Cuba (or at least Castro) didn't exist. The diplomatic and economic embargoes continued although with an ever growing number of holes as other nations, and not simply the USSR and its satellites, opened normal relations with Havana.

The (to our eyes) non-existent, evil Castro regime didn't officially exist. Meanwhile Cuba became an increasing irritant to us as it pursued adventures in Latin America and Africa through the Seventies, Eighties, and even a few of the Nineties.

Upshot? A week back the ailing, aging El Lieder Maximo stated that there would be no negotiations with the US as long as he lived. Meanwhile his regime continued to foster and assist Neo-Castroism in South America, particularly Venezuela.

Wow! Keeping our moral purity by turning our diplomatic and economic back on Cuba and Castro was a real winner!

At least we survived the Cuban Missile Crisis. (Remember it? You should. The US and USSR came within a nanometer or two of pushing the Big Button.) The nation survived the killing of JFK which was (in high, even very high probability) engineered by the Castro regime. We were able to bear up under the stress of Cuban mischief in Africa and Central America. We will most assuredly outlast the Neo-Castro fad of the present.

But it was all preventable. If We the People and our government had taken a firm hold of reality and accepted that Castro and his government were somewhat unpleasant. If Ike or JFK had maintained or re-established normal relations.... Well, we can't rewind the tape and see history as it might have been.

But, the Geek insists, we can, no, must learn from the mistakes of our history and not repeat the idiotic spasm of pretending a regime we do not like doesn't exist except as a target.

This brings us to Syria. The Geek has chosen Syria, not Iran, because the weight of the baggage is not nearly so great. (OK. Confession time. The Geek despairs of the US, or Iran for that matter, catching a good case of rationality in the near future,)

The US had touchy but basically normal relations with Syria for a long time. No less an authority on such matters as Henry Kissinger, who met with Assad, Senior a couple of times, was favorably impressed by the man's ability and orientation as to reality as well as his single-mindedness of purpose.

From the days of Nixon on there is no doubt but Syria was an obnoxious country, the Baathist regime annoying. Syria facilitated and harbored terrorists, played the role of mixer and trouble maker in Lebanon, and refused to negotiate with Israel unless the Golan Heights captured by the IDF during the Six Day War was returned. Despite this the US kept on pursuing normal diplomatic mechanisms, albeit with very little success.

Two years ago, US policy changed. Apparently afflicted with the old disease of arrogant contempt for bothersome regimes, the current Administration declared that Assad, Jr and his government were not worthy of continued normal relations. The Administration, in pursuit of this new High Moral Plane policy, even went so far as to stop former President Jimmy Carter from visiting Syria as a private citizen and refused Assad, Jr a visa to address the UN General Assembly.

Cutting Syria off. What a brilliant concept!

What has the High Moral Plane policy gotten us so far?

Get a grip on this. Syria has signed a military assistance pact with Iran, which will see more than two gigabucks of new Russian weaponry including tactical missiles flow to Damascus. Under the agreement Iran will have basing rights for its new Russian multi-role combat aircraft in Syria.

As if this wasn't enough to cause the White House to rethink matters, Syria is mucking about more and more once again in Lebanon. (Recall that Syrian history has Lebanon as an integral part of Syria and history ain't dead in the Mideast.) Furthermore, Syria has become even more intransigent on the vital matter of peace with Israel. (Try to image a comprehensive peace without the full, free participation of Syria.)

The current Administration owns pencils without erasers so the possibility of returning to a policy of normal relations is very, very slim. The next administration will have the chance of doing the right thing.

The Geek would advise whoever comes to the White House a year and a half from now that history shows clearly that while moral purity is nice, positive results are better.

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