Tuesday, September 4, 2007

At Last! The Pentagon Comes Clean--Sort Of.

Not about Iraq, if that was what you were hoping. Come on, bucko, get a grip.

For the Pentagon to come clean about the Iraq invasion would require admitting that former SecDef Rumsfield was an overbearing putz with the brain power of a gnat and the ambition of Napoleon on steroids who surrounded himself with yes-sir-boss, neo-con nincompoops. It would also require acknowledging that the senior American commanders were severely challenged in the areas of intellectual and moral courage.

Finally, were the Pentagon to spill the truth, the whole truth, it would have to confess what the Geek already knew--the US military only wants to fight conventional wars. The US military absolutely loathes the very idea of insurgency, let alone insurgency where terrorism is the major tactic.

So, if the lads in the Five Sided Wigwam by the shores of the Po-To-Mic aren't 'fessing up about Iraq, what's the hoo-hoo?

China. Yup, the inevitable "highly placed," "usually well-informed," "requested anonymity" sources at the Pentagon have sidled up to the Financial Times and, more or less, sort of, confirmed what has been common knowledge in the sub-basements of the military, diplomatic, and intelligence communities for years.

The Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA) has been and is mounting a concerted, heavy attack upon the computer systems of the US military, defense contractors, and other targets associated with the American national security establishment.

Wow! Tell me it ain't true. Please somebody tell me that the Peoples' Republic of China, toymaker to the world, economic miracle of the 21st Century, holder of more than a trillion dollars of foreign exchange, isn't cyber-attacking the US. Please, tell me that China isn't really hostile to us.

The Geek would like to believe what Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and any number of other leaders, movers, and shakers have affirmed: that China is a member in good standing of the world community, that it has no ambitions to either regional hegemony or to limit American freedom of global action.

That's a nice belief, this vision of China-the-peaceful. But, it's a belief for fantasy land, not the real world. The Geek will accept it when he looks out and sees a unicorn in the canyon or whales gliding in the thermals over the mountains.

The PRC is in hot pursuit of two long-term political goals. One is regional hegemony. The other is the ability to limit the freedom of US response to Chinese actions even if and when those ambitions extend beyond the region.

Hegemony requires a mixture of hard power features. The Chinese mandarinate knows this. The central hard power components have to be economic and military. The long celebrated restoration of capitalism to China has provided the first of these prerequisites.

The PLA has been part of the economic transformation. Twenty years ago it dropped the long obsolete formulations of Mao and shook off the old "peasant guerrilla army" costume in a search for modern capacities. At first, the PLA was split into two parts. One part was oriented to the task of fighting wars whether external or internal. The other was set to work in factories and fields to support the war fighters.

In a way not unlike the SS in Germany or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, industries and businesses relevant to war fighting became integral parts of the PLA. This dynamic is not at all similar to the (in)famous "military-industrial complex" in the US. The PLA method assures an effective meshing of technological capabilities, military requirements, and economic realities.

Unlike the military in countries such as the US or the UK, where the bureaucrats of the budget and "peace dividend" lovers among the wallahs in Congress or Parliament demand new military equipment cost nearly nothing, work without repairs for decades and run on air, the PLA, thanks to its own industrial empire, not only makes what it needs but makes the money necessary to make what it needs.

The results are evident in the latest run of PLA modernization and expansion. Recall that the new SecDef, Gates, expressed anxiety regarding the goals and intentions behind this expansion, which obviously far exceeds any legitimate defensive requirements.

Of the two requirements for seeking regional hegemony, the Chinese nearly have both. They have the economic resources. They are getting the necessary muscle.

In order to achieve the goal of regional hegemony, the Chinese need diplomatic maneuvering room. This requires limiting American freedom to respond let alone to initiate.

In a post entitled, "Shop at Walmart. Help the Enemy," the Geek noted one avenue open to the Chinese was to threaten the US economy by selling off some of its vast horde of dollar denominated foreign currency reserves, which include US Treasury Notes and Bills. This course of action, the Geek observed, would be risky since the blowback to Chinese economic interest and stability would be difficult if not impossible to predict accurately.

There is another, far less risky avenue by which US initiatives and responses can be either limited or countered. This means is simply strategic, political, and technological intelligence.

All countries with an eye on the winds of reality and the technical competence either read or attempt to read all other countries' mail.

Nearly seventy-five years ago the US set the standard during and before the Washington Naval Arms Limitation Talks, which resulted in freezing the Japanese to a position of inferiority compared to the US and UK. We did it by breaking the Japanese diplomatic code.

The hidden hand propelling the eventual Allied victory over Germany and Japan was the ability of the US and the UK to "read" the encoded and enciphered communications of their common enemies. Much of the course of the Cold War was dictated by the relative ability of the two sides to "break" each other's "book" through espionage or analysis.

For nearly a generation now, the Chinese have focused intense, sustained, and growing effort on breaking the cyber systems of the US and other Western countries. The actions of brigades of bright, well trained, and dedicated PLA hackers have complemented the efforts of the PRC's more conventional espionage activities.

"Cybernage" is an add-on to espionage. The Chinese are skilled at classic espionage. They have a significant cadre of native born and overseas born Chinese that have been deployed effectively against American and other targets as recently acknowledged by the FBI. The coordinated 24/7 hacker attacks come in tandem with those of the dudes in trench coat and pulled down hat.

It is true that "friends" spy on "friends." The famed case of Jonathan Pollard is proof of that. Even close allies such as the US and UK would be amiss if they did not take the odd dekko at each other's mail.

However, coordinated cybernage and espionage conducted at the intensity of the Chinese effort for the length of time the Chinese have been at it is the hallmark of hostility.

Get a grip on this. The PRC hacker attacks aren't a random or now and then effort. They are not the result of some overly zealous underling running out of control. They are hostile acts by a hostile power.

A few weeks ago when the PRC was caught sending dangerous products including food to the US and Europe, the lads in Beijing screamed, "Cold War mentality!" and similar shouts of outrage.

That's what the PRC's Foreign ministry spokesperson said when faced with the US acknowledgement that the PLA had been responsible for last spring's cracking of a non-secure portion of the Pentagon's email system.

Coincidence?

Make up your own mind.

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