Osama Videos Go Into Reruns--With a Twist

Al-Qaeda Video Productions has made an industry shaking change in its new approach to reruns. Combining previously released footage with a new audio track featuring favorite personality, Osama bin Laden, the new rerun format shows a new trend in Islamist Terror Entertainment.

While the format may be new, there is nothing fresh in the style and content. Sheik bin Laden's voice is almost as wooden as his face as he calls upon Pakistanis to wage jihad against their apostate Chief of State, General Pervez Musharraf. The script was stale, repetitive, and lacked imagination in its recycling of typical Islamist (and old style Communist) characterizations of Musharraf as a tool and lackey of the United States and its running dogs.

The uninspired production has been dismissed by spokesmen on behalf of the General. Even so, the Geek takes the rerun--poor production values and all--seriously. Four years ago, the purported Number Two in al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahari, released a similar tape.

It was followed by two very serious attempts on General Musharraf's life.

Additionally, there is little doubt but that bin Laden has a base of support among Pakistanis which extends far beyond the narrow wedge of Islamists political parties. There are a number of signs which indicate this.

The most disturbing of these indicators is the less than inspired performance of the Pakistani Army in the critical tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan. One example, there is strong reason to conclude that some, if not all, of the alleged "kidnappings" of Pakistani troops in the region were, in fact, mass surrenders to the al-Qaeda/Taliban fighters.

Another indicator of a crisis of confidence in the Pakistani Army comes from a close examination of the claim by the government that the army is "taking casualties." It is true that Pakistani soldiers are being killed and wounded by al-Qaeda/Taliban trigger pullers. That isn't what counts.

"What does count?" You ask.

Did the casualties happen during offensive operations or defensive? That's where the rubber hits the road. An examination of all available information points at the majority of the casualties resulting from enemy initiated actions.

An army that sits on the defensive is not showing an impressive willingness to close with and destroy the enemy. Without closing and killing there is no realistic possibility of defeating the enemy. Period.

The prize for al-Qaeda, Taliban, and bin Laden is not the death of Musharraf. (Although the Geek doubts any tears would be shed by these worthies if the General were to buy the farm.) The real prize sought is not even the assurance that Musharraf would lose the forthcoming elections. Of course that would be nice as Ms Bhutto is a denier of the Islamist threat.

The real prize at stake is simply the further reduction of Pakistani political will to control effectively the border areas. Those rugged, remote mountains where Taliban trains, al-Qaeda hides out, and bin Laden studies the mysteries of Islamist theology.

There is always the chance that some jihadist will succeed in whacking the General. The implications of a successful assassination are wide in scope. One thing is sure. None of the ramifications would be good from the American perspective.

Pakistan is the next thing to a failed state. It possesses nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear knowledge. Within the Pakistani military, intelligence service, and nuclear establishment exist a significant number of Islamists. A.Q, Khan, the most profligate prolifiater of nuclear weapons technology on record is still alive, kicking, and Islamist.

Then there is geography.

Pakistan borders both Afghanistan and Iran. What more do you need to know?

How about this?

Admiral Fallon, the Commander of Central Command, has noted pointedly in the past twenty-four hours that Iranian origin materials for roadside bombs have been shipped to Afghanistan. This is not the first time that an American senior commander has made reference to this factor in the ongoing Afghan war. The boringly repetitive Iranian denials like the statements made by "experts" that Iran has no truck with Taliban are simply not credible.

Should Pakistan collapse as a state or should an "Islamism denier" become president of Pakistan, the strategic balance in the Northwest Asian region would shift. A new and from the American perspective (and, in all probability, that of Russia, India and China), unpleasant alignment would likely emerge: Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan.

While this pessimistic outcome is unlikely, it is far from impossible. Whether it is the end desired by bin Laden and company is not for the Geek to surmise.

But, the Geek would be inclined to tell the Wizard of al-Qaeda to be careful what he asks for. He just might get it. Since al-Qaeda, Taliban, and the mullahocracy of Tehran would be even stranger than the classic Axis of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan, the sheik might discover that not all jihads are good jihads