Countries! Do You Know Where Your Atoms Are?

The Nuclear Threat Initiative which is co-chaired by former Senator Sam Nunn (one of the few former congresswallahs for whom the Geek has respect) has sponsored a report which should cause more than a few sleepless nights for those outside government who concern themselves with the potential of terrorist actions using nuclear or radiological weapons. A precis of the study can be found at http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSL2689204420070926.

While all too many have been hyperventilating over the prospect of Iran gaining nuclear weapons, a far more real and immediate threat has been ignored. For years it has been well known within the national security community that in addition to nuclear materials unaccounted for (MUF), there are a large number of research reactors using highly enriched uranium (HEU) for fuel.

Not only are there reactors using HEU which have no more security than a rent-a-cop and a fence, there are a number of high-level radioactive waste storage and reprocessing facilities with the same minimalist approach to security.

Feeling a bit nervous, bucko?

Hang on, there's more.

Only 102 of the 140 reactors using HEU have reasonably adequate physical security. And, physical security is not enough. Guards and barriers cannot stop the theft or diversion of nuclear materials. This has been shown in Russia where a former general has been arrested on suspicion of assisting or attempting to assist in the theft of fissionable material suitable for making bombs.

In Pakistan, which, unlike India has not yet ratified the international convention requiring governments to criminally prosecute individuals or groups possessing nuclear or radiological material without proper authorization, there have been credible reports that as many as forty canisters containing weapons grade uranium have gone missing.

Even though slightly more than half of the fissionable and radiological storage sites in the former Soviet Union have been upgraded in their security largely due to US funding, disagreement exists regarding the quantity of MUF. Any amount is too much.

Even the US, which has employed stringent security procedures for decades, has a MUF problem. No one is willing to discuss its extent.

Many of those in the loop have been willing to dismiss the MUF question as one which is irrelevant. No real possibility of diversion we have been assured. It's all a matter of accounting errors or atoms lost in processing.

And, the entire Enron debacle was simply a matter of accounting errors.

Perhaps the same accountants were on the job in the Soviet Union. And Pakistan.

The Geek hasn't read the Nuclear Threat Initiative sponsored study performed by Harvard University's Managing the Atom Project, so he doesn't know if any consideration was given to high-level radwaste and reprocessing facilities. If not, it would be a major lapse.

High level radioactive waste isn't simply an obnoxious set of substances like unburied decomposing garbage. It is the source of very lethal isotopes waiting to be let loose.

Making a gun-type uranium bomb of the type that leveled Hiroshima isn't that difficult. The basic process of making a very photogenic mushroom cloud is well understood and does not require advanced technology. All that is needed is two sub-critical masses of HEU, some lead, a tube, and a small not-very-high explosive charge.

Heck, the plans are widely available in print, and, for all the Geek knows, on the web.

But, while atomic bombs of the Hiroshima variety are worrisome, the higher potential of a radiological weapon is much more so. Rad weapons are easier to make. The radioactive material is easier to acquire than HEU. Once a wannabe terrorist has some of the nasty atoms, all he needs in addition is a vehicle and a few tens of kilos of explosive.

Gamma emitting radwaste dispersed over a target by a vehicle bomb would ruin the day for whoever was in the vicinity. Additionally, since the atoms don't just go away after dispersion, they present a massive decontamination problem.

Radiological weapons may not be as sexy as genuine atomic bombs, but they kill and wound people just as well, perhaps even better given the persistence of radioactivity. And, they are so darn easy to make.

Just mosey on down to the local radwaste site (they aren't hard to find, even in the US).

Knock off the place. (That's not difficult. Security isn't much more than at the local Stop-and-Rob.)

Add the stuff to the previously fabricated vehicle bomb. (Do it fast since you won't be feeling too well in pretty quick order.)

Drive to the populated area of your choice. (Fast, but not too fast. You don't want to pulled over for speeding, do you?)

Push the button. (The explosion will kill you, but that's good. Radiation poisoning is a very, very icky-poo way to check out.)

Sure, setting off your own atomic bomb would be more emotionally satisfying. Yet, if all that is desired is the hitting of a soft, high-value target with large casualties and the production of much fear, the radiological weapon is the way to go.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative report is to be commended for (hopefully) focusing public attention on the very real challenge of properly protecting HEU using reactors. It may also have the desirable effect of bringing the question of MUF back into the open.

To make sure that all of us can sleep a little more soundly in years to come, the same attention has to be paid to radwaste sites and the commercial use of gamma emitting isotopes.

Maybe that is too much to ask for. Perhaps we should use the default position. Pretend that every country knows where all its atoms are.

Great idea. Keep it in mind as you watch your hair fall out while puking your guts out.