Carlos Marighela Meets Hamas (And Iran)

Carlos Marighela lived and died as a theorist of urban insurgency. Forty years later his work soldiers on far from his native Brazil.

Marighela advocated terror as the principle weapon of the insurgent. His view was not the same as Lenin, who famously quipped, "The purpose of terror is to terrorise." No. Carlos Marighela had a far more focused understanding of terror. In his theory the utility of terror was found in its capacity to provoke the status quo power--the government in the case of the standard issue insurgency--or the occupying power in other situations. The goal was to force the status quo power into ill-advised and robust action.

Marighela held that under sufficient pressure from terrorist acts, the government would respond with harsh, repressive, even brutal and lethal actions. As a consequence of this the uncommitted majority of the target population would unite against the status quo.

Terror, Carlos argued, therefore must have two results. The first, more direct and short term was that of undercutting confidence in the government's capacity to protect lives and property. The second, less direct but ultimately more lasting and powerful, was the trajectory of government repression leading to radicalization of the population generally.

The leadership of Hamas may never have read Marighela's book, Mini-manual For The Urban Guerrilla, but that terrorist group turned de facto government of the Gaza Strip sure has been acting as though Marighela ranked with Mohammad as the prophet with the most honor. Since shooting their way to power in the Gaza some eighteen months ago, Hamas has been the active employer of terror against Israel.

In the eyes of Hamas (and other similarly inclined groups) Israel is the occupying power. This foreign presence must be eliminated. Since this often announced goal cannot be accomplished by military means, the alternative of terror must be employed.

The endless barrage of crude (but continuously improving) unguided, short-range rockets and mortar shells aimed at the quarter million Israelis living within range of the Gaza Strip is meant to terrorise. It is intended, as are the IED's and suicide bombers, to force the Government of Israel (GOI) into taking robust repressive measures against Hamas and, inevitably, the population of the Gaza Strip.

The calculation made by Hamas is both simple and predictable by anyone who has read the Mini-manual. The Israeli response would produce significant numbers of photogenic and emotional scenes of death, destruction, grief and suffering. More than the rockets which goaded or the IDF missiles and bombs, the images of death and grief, suffering and anger served as Hamas' weapons of choice.

Why is the calculus so simple, so obvious?

Because the West has changed sides in the long running Israeli-Arab war. After forty years of public opinion support for Israel, the elites and opinion moulders of the US, the UK, the EU switched during and in the aftermath of the First Intifada. While the Israel Lobby may remain virtually all-powerful in the US, Israel has lost the sympathy and support of the elites generally in the West.

What Israel lost as a result of emotionally powerful images which reflected neither credit nor glory on the GOI and the IDF as well as the apparently uncompromising nature of many of Israel's major political figures has been picked up by the Palestinians. It is not that the leaders of the several Palestinian groups are great at public relations. Certainly Hamas is a crude and blustering collection of highly motivated and terrifically lethal thugs, not a crew which would be at home on Madison Avenue.

But Hamas and other similar groups are quite willing to let their people die on camera. They are ever so willing to put their fellow Palestinians through the wringer of wretchedness as long as it gains attention and sympathy. Carlos would be proud.

Hamas hopes to leverage its way to the goal of destroying the "Zionist Entity," by using the long lever of world opinion. The fulcrum point is found on the pile of Palestian bodies. This mound of cadavers is the result, not of GOI/IDF action, but of Hamas employment of terror as a goad.

Hamas had an alternative. It could have allowed the "Lull" to continue. Hamas was warned by Egypt, by the Palestinian National Authority, by Israel that ending the "Lull" would be a fatal mistake. Hamas chose, repeat, chose not to heed the warnings.

Why?

One can only speculate given that Hamas is not a bunch noted for either candor or honesty. Two salient points deserve notation. The first is that Hamas is an Iranian proxy. The second is that the US is in a period of interregnum.

If Israel had any intention of unilateral action against Iranian nuclear sites, now would be an apposite time to exercise the option. George W. Bush is carrying his short-timer's stick. President-elect Obama is nearly a month from taking office and has a host of other matters on his (collective) mind.

A prudential move for the Iranian mullahocracy to make would be one of assuring that GOI and the IDF were preoccupied with matters closer to home than the nuclear weapons development plants in Iran. Hamas and (if necessary or desirable) Hezbollah were ready, willing and even eager to have another go at provoking Israel and garnering support from the High Minded of the world.

Another very real benefit from the perspective of Tehran is the potential of the conflict escalating at least horizontally. One immediate impact of such a horizontal escalation including terror attacks against Israeli and US targets throughout the world would be an abrupt hike in the price of oil. Not to put too fine a point on the matter--Iran needs money. Badly. Right now.

So, all the way around, cranking up Hamas is a low risk, high-payoff proposition for the Iranian regime. They protect themselves and have a shot at the money as well.

The only losers in the game are Israel and the civilians of the Gaza Strip. And, why are they losers? Because Hamas acts like Carlos Marighela on steroids.

But that wouldn't matter except for one other reality upon which we must get a grip.

The public opinion molding elites of the West are on the wrong side this time but there is no indication that they either recognise it or are ready to recant. The death, the destruction, the wretchedness and the grief are not being manufactured by the Israelis this time. This time these are all the intentional products of Hamas.

Hamas is guilty. Not Israel. Only if we in the US and the rest of the West get a grip on this fact will the death, destruction and grief come to an end. Only then will the theories of Carlos and the plans of Hamas and the ambitions of Iran be ended Only then will the terror stop. Only then will the dead of Gaza not have died for nothing.