Time For A Change--Pakistan

The US has coddled the hell out of the military and intelligence service of Pakistan for the past eight years. The billions of dollars spent there have bought no noticeable improvement in the counter-terrorist or counterinsurgency capacities of the military. The effort has been without success.

The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) continues to be a fortress of Islamism/jihadism. The military is not much better. These two unpleasant ground truths are the reason that most, if not all, terrorist roads end in Pakistan.

The time has come to get a grip on this reality. It is really long past time to drop the pretense that Pakistan is an ally in the effort against al-Qaeda, Taliban, and Lashkar e-Taiba.

It is time to publicly acknowledge that Pakistan provides ready sanctuary, easy cover, and competent training and support to the people fighting the US, killing Americans, and seeking the goal of ejecting the US and the West from the sub-continent.

Unless and until Pakistan ceases being the recruiting, training, financing, and general purpose rest and recreation center for the jihadists of the world, the world has no hope of being rid of their noxious presence. The instruments of American national power, along with those of other countries which have a realistic appraisal of the threat presented by jihadism and the critical role played by Pakistan in facilitating jihadism, must be employed to alter Pakistan's behavior--radically.

This does not mean another great adventure in regime change. There is no need (and even less possibility of success) for a Iraq type invasion.

What is needed is the application of economic and diplomatic pressure on the government of Pakistan to take two specific actions. Get a grip on them. It isn't hard even though the current administration couldn't (or wouldn't) do it.

The ISI must be disbanded. Period. Reform of the ISI so as to remove the Islamists/jihadists is as impossible as reforming the Mafia to remove the Tony Soprano types.

The Pakistani military has to be reoriented from wishing for yet another losing war with India. The job for the armed forces of Pakistan is twofold. Secure the borders between Pakistan and India as well as between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mount a sustained counterinsurgency and pacification campaign not only in the FATA but Swat and other jihadist heartlands.

In short, the armed forces of Pakistan should take on the greatest challenge and perform the most important mission any military can--insure the structural integrity of the government. Make sure the government of Pakistan and only the government of Pakistan has authority over the population of Pakistan.

Given the parlous economic conditions of Pakistan, conditions that can only be worsened by the current global recession, the US and its partners (we assume the US will have partners globally after next January 20th.) can put the squeeze on Pakistan with a high probability of success. Yes, the government of Pakistan will squawk like the cliched stuck pig about foreign dictates and the beauties of national sovereignty. That is only to be expected. Let them scream all they want--as long as they also do what is required.

Cut off all military and economic assistance until the required twin efforts have been undertaken, at least to the extent that results are visible. Then and only then reprogram the aid. This time emplace sufficient oversight that the money is spent only for purposes consistent with stamping out the terrorist groups and their supporters.

"But, wait a minute, Geek! The Paks have nukes. They have plutonium. We can't take the risk."

The Pakistani bomb is one of the reasons we have to go the "tough love" route. Their assembled, deliverable nuclear arsenal represents a threat to India and--potentially--Iran. One of these countries already has a nuclear deterrent and the other one seems hellbent to do the same. In any event, the Government of Pakistan is well aware of what might (will) happen if some of its nuclear material ends up as a mushroom cloud somewhere. The bomb is not a reason to cease pressure on Islamabad. It is a reason to increase it.

The administration of George W. Bush swived the pooch with respect to Pakistan. The reasons for this severe failure are still unclear. In so far as the past is prologue, in this case it is the cause of a very dark future. Coddling Pakistan, its military, its ISI, has not only brought the Taliban resurgence, it has brought the world Mumbai.

To have a better chance of a future without more Mumbais there must be a change. To have a better chance of a future without one, two, many Talibans, there must be a change.

The change must happen in Pakistan. The change must be started in Washington.