One of these days, quite soon by all accounts, the special tribunal established by the UN to investigate the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 is to be released. The history of this investigation is marked with false steps and false accusations, but now it appears the tribunal thinks they finally have achieved a firm grip on the event. The tribunal's staff are convinced that they know who dunnit and why it was done.
The murder of Hariri was roundly condemned by the US. That was a standard issue, off-the-shelf response. Not so standard and certainly not well-advised was the precipitate action taken by the Bush/Cheney administration to false reports directly linking Syrian President Bashir al-Assad to the killing.
With a haste which was both unnecessary and unseemly, the neo-con ninnies suspended diplomatic relations with Syria, calling our ambassador home. One result of this act and the charges underlying it was the sharp turn toward Iran made by an irate Bashir who felt that his country and himself personally had been insulted. In addition the Syrian regime saw itself threatened by the suspension of normal diplomatic representation.
Syria has cleaved most tightly to Iran ever since. This relationship is not in US interests any more than it is in the interests of Israel. The Obama administration was well enough oriented toward reality to attempt damage limitation and repair. This effort has proven fruitless as too much time had passed, too many connections made between the clerics of Iran and secularists of Syria, to allow any substantial or speedy change in the status quo.
The only action the US might have undertaken which would have resulted in Syria executing an about face was the return of the Golan Heights from Israel. Since the administration decided to focus its efforts and attempts at pressure on levering Israel back to the negotiating table with the Palestinian Authority, it was impossible to do the same with Syria and the Golan.
The unwillingness or inability of the Obama administration to do anything useful on the Golan question assured that Bashir al-Assad saw nothing to be gained by dumping the mullahs and embracing the US. An additional obstacle to changing Syrian affections from Tehran to Washington has been the repeated refusal by American administrations to acknowledge that Syria has both interests and a special position in Lebanon. To us the notion of a "Greater Syria" incorporating Lebanon is a nul referent; to Syrians it is a reality demanding full recognition by the world including the US and its allies.
The real deal is Syria has a special position in Lebanon. Whether Syrian troops are present in country or not, whether Syrian police patrol the streets of Beirut or not, whenever Syria decides to sneeze, Lebanon will catch pneumonia. In short, to use the words of Winston Churchill, in Lebanon Syria has one hundred percent of "the say."
Since the US threw one hissy fit after another until all Syrian armed forces were withdrawn from Lebanon, the Boys in Damascus have employed the tried and true method of use-a-surrogate to exercise "the say" in Lebanon. Hezbollah was a creation of Syria a quarter of a century ago and more. Over the years the lads of Hezbollah have demonstrated a clear utility to Syria both in Lebanon and, when necessary, elsewhere.
However, the situation has become more complicated in recent years as a direct result of the tight and getting tighter linkage between Iran and Syria. Particularly after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the flow of money, material, and training from Iran to Hezbollah has strengthened the direct ties between the theocrats of Iran and the adherents of armed political Islam of Hezbollah. (It's nice to remember that the name translates as the Party of God.)
The situation is such that Hezbollah is almost in a position to play off Syria against Iran should its best interests demand it. At the moment, however, the best interests of Hezbollah are served by unity between its two patrons. The problem comes in what that may mean for Lebanon overall as the UN tribunal cranks up to go public with its investigation.
The conclusions of the tribunal's investigation is, Hezbollah did it. This prospect has Hezbollah worried. It has the current Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, very worried. It has the Lebanese political elite very, very worried.
Hezbollah's capo, Hassan Nasrallah, has the capacity to tumble the government. In lieu of simply causing the chaos a forced collapse of the central government would bring in its wake, the very hardline Islamist group and its leader may simply demand a reformulation of the Taif Agreement which ended the simmering internal Lebanese war by bringing Hezbollah into the government. Any reformulation would grant even more power to Hezbollah, a prospect which Israel, among others, finds alarming.
Three ago the politics of Lebanon as threatened by the UN tribunal report made for strange bedmates as Bashir al-Assad met one on one with the King of Saudi Arabia. The two long standing foes had come together in the hope of making sure there would be no reawakening of the dormant civil war. For a couple of months it appeared the two had succeeded in brokering some sort of undiscussed in public means of preventing a Lebanese collapse.
The rapprochement has proven short-lived. The Kingdom of the Two Mosques and the Baathists of Syria have come to a parting of the ways on Lebanon as a direct result of the Syrian-Iranian alliance. The Syrian government has come out in favor of the candidacy of Nouri al-Maliki. Maliki is the favorite son of Iran for the office of Iraqi prime minister. Being Iran's favorite means Maliki must be Syria's as well.
The opting for the Iranian Candidate has infuriated Sunni Saudi Arabia. Even if it was not possible for Bashir and his government to come out in support of Allawi, who was acceptable to Saudi Arabia, the overt endorsement of Maliki was too much for the Keeper of the Two Mosques. It was, as they say, a deal killer.
Bashir has also blasted the on-again and now once more, off-again Israeli-Palestinian Authority talks as existing only to "boost Obama." That he delivered himself of this opinion with Ahmadinejad beaming away in the next chair was not lost on any observer--particularly those in Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian Orator-in-Chief is scheduled to return the call in a couple of weeks. This means the internal politics of Lebanon will remain in stasis at least until the Man From Tehran heads home on 15 October. After that date, all bets are off regarding the internal stability of the faction ridden state of Lebanon.
Ahmadinejad, accompanied by Nasrallah, is scheduled to dedicate a garden located not far from the Israel-Lebanon border. At this time the Guy From Tehran is expected to toss a symbolic stone in the general direction of Israel. This action close to what Ahmadinejad has called "Iran's border with Israel" raises a question.
No, bucko, not what shape is Ahmadinejad's arm. Rather, will the Israelis go for a commando raid and snatch, bringing Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah back to Israel to stand trial for either war crimes (in Nasrallah's case) or exciting genocide in regard to Ahmadinejad's many calls for the destruction of Israel. In a way it is too bad that this intriguing prospect (think glass booths, simultaneous translations, hordes of international observers all in the ala Eichmann manner) is a non-starter. It would solve so many problems all at once as well as raise a number of other, more fascinating--or at least less repetitive--issues.
In any event watching Lebanon will be a whole lot more fun after the UN tribunal releases its report. It will be one more episode in the long running and ever-so-bloody drama of Can Lebanon Survive? In the worst realistic case, the Lebanese situation will be reality TV at its most compelling.
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