Keep The Mullahs In Power Above All Else

The party line in Iran has reversed course. The Supreme Leader has confirmed the change. He now avers that the West was not behind the unrest in Iran following the election. This development came hard on the heels of the Iranian decision to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into the Arak heavy water reactor and other sites previously prohibited to them.

The Charm Offensive has gained speed as Friday approaches. The big noise on Friday is the scheduled release of the latest poop out of the IAEA on the Iranian nuke projects. There is very real apprehension that the new report will contain the fruits of US, UK, Israeli, and IAEA intelligence showing the weaponization efforts of the mullahs. If the IAEA drops the ElBaradi protective shield, it will be the result of coordinated multi-lateral pressure and will result in enhanced pressure to "Do Something!" about the emerging Iranian threat on the part of Western opinion molders and politicos.

Reinforcing the potential that the West will "do something" are the recent remarks by both France's Nicholas Sarkozy and, today, Germany's Angela Merkel. Considering that both nations are in the "Billionaire's Club" in bi-lateral trade with Iran, the new harshness is not easily ignored in Tehran--or Qom. The potential of the new measures including the prohibition of gasoline shipments to the country puts added and very real pressure on the economic basket case called Iran.

The deep divisions demonstrated both in the Iranian public and the clerical elite that runs the country have destroyed the facade of the Iranian monolith. The weaknesses within have been and continue to be on display for all to see. In short, Iran looks as unstable as it actually has been for several years, years in which desperation has grown along with economic misery and increasing restiveness under the sway of the reactionary semi-theocracy.

The intent of the Iranian charm offensive is simply to delay the next measures proposed by the US and others, the "crippling sanctions" once promised by SecState Clinton. A second, perhaps overarching intent is to drive a wedge between the US and EU on the one hand and Iran's protectors, Russia and, even more, China.

The goal is to keep the centrifuges spinning in both announced and inspected facilities and the highly probable undisclosed ones. The end goal is to get the bomb. For in possession of the bomb lies the future security of the regime.

Iran has watched US policy to Pakistan closely. We cooperate, support, facilitate the government of Pakistan even though we know perfectly well that the Inter-Services Intelligence wallahs have supported and continue to support Taliban and al-Qaeda. We do this out of fear. Fear that the Pakistani bomb or fissionable materials might fall into the "wrong hands" in the event of a regime collapse. Whether there is any basis in reality for this fear, there can be no denying that it exists at least at the level of anxiety in Washington.

In short, the government of Pakistan may be obnoxious in some, even many, respects, but it is infinitely preferable to no government at all or a government dominated by Islamist jihadists.

The consequence is simple. We will act to secure its continuation in power regardless of other considerations such as expense, human rights violations, corruption, or even its level of perceived legitimacy.

The Supreme Leader in Iran wants the same sort of guarantee above all else. For Grand Ayatollah Khemenei, regime maintenance is what it is all about. This is buttressed by the clear indication that he desires to establish a family dynasty in the quasi-theocracy by seeing his son succeed him as Supreme Leader.

In the short run Iran depends upon its capacity to be a regional troublemaker as well as its foreign protectors China and Russia to purchase time and regime maintenance alike. In the longer term, say in another eighteen to twenty-four months, the Supreme Leader sees the "Pakistani Gambit" as a sovereign remedy to forestall the collapse of the government.

If the US fears the consequences of a Pakistani collapse or Islamist jihadist takeover of Pakistan, it would be even more fearful of Iran falling apart. Right now Iran faces three internal threats, regional defensive insurgencies in Kurdistan and down in Baluchistan. In addition the events of the post-election period show that the potential of an offensive insurgency pitting the large segment of totally discontented and disaffiliated Iranians against the Islamist reactionaries of the clerical establishment and its supporters of the Iran-Iraq War period, the Revolutionary Guard and the jihadist militia.

The specter of a nuclear Iran collapsing in a welter of insurgency and bloodletting with fissile materials at risk would be guaranteed to produce a number of Xanax moments in Washington. The less risky course of action would be to bite down on distaste and do what could be done to prop up the regime. At the least Washington would be deterred from throwing its weight behind one or another insurgent contestant.

Or so the logic tree of the Supreme Leader and his coterie must/might run. Buy time. Keep the centrifuges spinning. Get the fissionables. Play the Pakistani Gambit. Keep the regime running.

And, there it is, one more foreign policy challenge for the Nice Young Man From Chicago and his crew of progressives. Gotta hope they are up to it.

Iran May Be Getting Desperate Soon

Since, historically, desperate countries do desperate deeds, the US and the world had best be prepared. It all has to do with the price of oil and the cost of ambition.

In a way the situation which is developing today is reminiscent of that which provoked the attack upon the US and the UK by Imperial Japan in December 1941. Then the reason was oil. The US was the single greatest source of oil for the factories and war machine of the Japanese Empire. When the Roosevelt campaign of escalating economic sanctions, which was intended (at least by Secretary of State Cordell Hull) to force the Japanese to end their aggression in China, reached its final stage, the Japanese were left without a supply of oil, particularly refined aviation gasoline.

This left the Japanese with two alternatives. The first was a humiliating capitulation to US policy demands. The second was the seizure of the oil fields and refineries of what was then the Dutch East Indies.

Taking the second option would assure war with both the US and the UK if for no other reason than the shipping routes from Indonesia to the Japanese home islands ran between the British outpost at Singapore and the US bases in the Philippines. Since both countries were dedicated to protecting the integrity of the Dutch East Indies, only removal of the threat to oil convoys would make the effort of taking the oil resources worth the effort.

The Japanese naval high command and its exceptionally able and honest strategist, Admiral Yamamoto bet that the UK and the US would be so preoccupied with the Germans that a single short series of shocks to both countries would allow the Japanese to achieve their strategic goal. Yamamoto was never sure that it would, fearing that the necessary surprise attacks upon the centers of US naval power at Pearl Harbor and in the Philippines would "awaken a sleeping giant who would pursue us without remorse."

Still, it was the least-worst of the options. The Japanese attacks were successful and for six months, just as Yamamoto predicted, the Empire rode high on the waves. The American eagle had its perch broken and its beak shoved in the dreck of defeat. It did, again as Yamamoto had predicted, take wing again and come after the Japanese with a complete dedication to the destruction of the Empire.

Desperate countries do desperate deeds.

Iran is now a desperate country. It is desperate because without oil prices above a minimum of ninety bucks a barrel, it cannot meet the needs of its population. Also, the mullahocracy cannot continue to invest vast resources in its effort to achieve both nuclear capacity and the status of regional hegemon.

When OPEC cut production 1.5 million barrels per day, that cut was no where near enough to boost the price of oil to the minimum required by Iran's budgetary requirements. The force behind the almost token cut was Saudi Arabia and it's fellows on the Arabian Peninsula. These oil states with the cushions of massive sovereign wealth funds need no more than fifty dollars a barrel to do handsomely.

(It might be noted that Iran's oil infrastructure is in such bad shape that it was not pumping all that it was allowed to before the cut and will not be able to move as many barrels per day as it is allowed under the new production regime.)

Iran (and Venezuela, but the Geek will ignore the New Workers' Paradise for now) was left in the cold of relative pauperdom. Due to the imprudence of President Ahmedinejad, the "rainy day" fund established during the glory days of triple digit prices under the control of the Iranian central bank no longer exists. As a result the Iranians do not have even a very short term reserve.

The central bank continues to crank out money, but the money is worthless. Inflation is currently running at the thirty percent level.

Eighty percent of Iran's foreign exchange comes from oil revenues, so the treasury is as empty as an Obama foreign policy statement. The last attempt by the mullahocracy's front man to up the government's internal take, a three percent value added tax, was withdrawn after the shopkeepers of the bazaar shut up shop and took to the streets. A new thrust in the VAT direction is not likely to go over any better.

It is definitely panic time in the mullah's corral. And, desperate countries do desperate deeds.

The desperation felt in the Iranian government is evident in the latest round of shrill rhetoric coming from both President Ahmedinejad and his rival for power, Speaker of the Majlis Larijani, regarding the near-collapse of the "world bully," the US. Ahmedinejad told his audience that the "American empire in the world was reaching the end of the road."

Yeah, right.

The empireless US is having a tough time. The tough time will continue and probably worsen in the months to come as the global recession deepens. But the US is not near the end of its road.

The situation for Iran is different. The economic distress currently being felt by the Iranian people can only get much, much worse. The combination of sheer ambition and fiscal mismanagement along with the cumulative impact of the sanction campaign assures that reality.

Desperate countries do desperate deeds.

Iran has a number of options available to it in an attempt to seek a higher price for its oil. The Iranian funded Mahdi Army in Iraq could be brought back on stream. Muqtada Al-Sadr could crank up his troops quickly and effectively should Tehran give the word. (This possibility should give the Sunnis in Iraq some pause for thought as the SOFA is under consideration. Do they really, really want the Shiites to start shooting again?)

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (naval section) could seize or fire on an oil tanker transiting the Straits of Hormuz under some transparent cover or another. Violation of sovereignty. Water pollution. Killing fish without a license. You get the drift.

The consequent impact upon insurance rates if nothing else would slow or end the transport of oil from Basra. (Another cause for thought on the part of (any) responsible Iraqi politicians considering the SOFA.)

Another option open to Iran is cranking up its creature Hezbollah. This could easily have the effect of producing another round of exsanguination as Israel seeks to squash once again the rocket firing lads in Lebanon or their Hezbollah aided, supported and trained colleagues in the Gaza. The inherent attractiveness of this option is enhanced by the upcoming Israeli elections, the relatively high degree of war-weariness in the Israeli population and the vulnerability of the population to casualties inflicted at acceptable risk (at least to Tehran.)

Even discounting the recent low-credibility reports holding that the recent seismic events in southwest Iran were caused not by nature but by Iranian nuclear weapons tests, the capacity of the Iranians to cause trouble on a large scale is impressive. It is certainly sufficient to cause the desired escalation in the price of oil.

Gosh, looks like there may be a challenge, a test, waiting for the next president as he steps into the Oval. The Iranians--at least Speaker Larijani--hope the man behind the big desk is named Obama. After all, as the Speaker observed, Obama is "more mature" than McCain.

Interesting question for all of us. Who is right? Sarkozy with his observation that Obama's views on Iran are "utterly immature" or the Speaker of the Majlis?

History Never Repeats Itself--Or Does It?

There was a time long, long ago when the foul odor of fear clogged all American's nostrils. There was a time long, long ago when US banks quivered and fell, when businesses closed. There was a time long, long ago when the sound of the auctioneer's call sounded from a thousand courthouse steps as tens of thousands lost their homes, their farms, their hopes.

A charismatic man with a winning smile and an awesomely beguiling voice accepted the nomination of the Democratic Party for the office of President.

At this man's acceptance speech he made a promise to the American people. This promise became the mantra for the campaign.

No. It wasn't a call for "change."

FDR promised the American people a "new deal."

The words were in and of themselves meaningless. What else could be promised in the midst of the worst economic collapse the US had experienced in over a half century. More of the same?

Not hardly. FDR's promise of a "new deal" and his skillful working of the fears which struck so deep and hard in the collective psyche of We the People gave him the election. Sent him to the Oval with an overwhelming mandate. At the same time We the People, expressing both fear and hatred for the Republicans who were (wrongly) indicted in the court of public opinion for having both caused the depression three years earlier and being indifferent to its effects upon the people, gave FDR a veto proof Democratic majority in both houses of Congress.

At his inauguration FDR spoke the most true and accurate words of his fourteen years in the White House when he said that the only thing the nation had to fear "was fear itself." He went on to address this fear in a flurry of legislation meant to provide for recovery, relief and reform. This legal snowstorm is the First New Deal. It lasted one hundred days.

For all the hype and hoopla, for all the bloviation then and now regarding whether or not FDR was a socialist or a conservative, the most important reality of the First New Deal was that it failed.

Not completely, of course. Some of the actions meant to alleviate human misery did do some good, did palliate some wretchedness. Some of the reforms did bring a greater measure of order, stability and fair play to the stock market.

But, in the area that mattered most, in the centrality of defeating the depression, the First New Deal failed. The American public grabbed its collective gonads not in a gesture of defiance but in token of fear and looked inward. Gazed at themselves and the systems of government and economy in which they lived and hoped to work.

Fear brought dismay. While many young Americans joined with the legions of young ideologues who believed in the majestic effectiveness of centralised, rational planning by "experts" and descended upon the new New Deal agencies, others, also true believers, followed the seductive message of social justice, political equality and economic parity coming from the Soviet Union. These Americans believed along with journalist Lincoln Steffens that, "I've been over to the future--and it works."

Under the lashes of fear and distrust, Americans flung ideological grenades at each other, enlisted under banners of foreign origin and doubted that the nation could survive--at least in the form which they had inherited.

The seemingly intractable depression went on and on. The First New Deal was followed by the Second. FDR challenged the Supreme Court and won--using fear as a weapon. The Court submitted in 1937 and allowed the creation of the administrative state--the system of federal authority under which we currently exist.

The administrative state was one of the many unintended consequences of the rather conservative FDR's efforts to defeat the depression. Other legacies of his fight against the uncertainties and deficiencies of the market are not so unintended.

An example is Social Security. FDR rejected the economically sound approach preferring instead the politically invulnerable "contract between generations" course of action. The FDR decision has saddled our young with the impossible task of providing for their own lives while carrying an enormous aging population on their backs. The polite term is unfunded entitlements.

"Wait one, Geek! Where the hell are you going with this? You're supposed to be focused on foreign affairs, military matters and that sort of good shit."

The Geek hears you, my friend, and is heading in that direction. But, it is necessary to understand first and foremost that there is no disconnect between domestic affairs and foreign policy. That is true in good times. It is even more true when We the People are consumed with fears over what is happening here at home and don't want to notice a damn thing outside of the scope of our up-close-and-personal apprehensions.

The decade of the Thirties was a time like the present. Both then and now illustrate why the Chinese toast, "May you live in interesting times," is actually a curse.

Throughout the years of the depression, throughout both of FDR's first two terms, the world grew increasingly dangerous for the US. The emergence of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan threatened core national and strategic interests of the US.

While we cowered in our cloud of fear and while our conflicting ideologies battled one with the others, we ignored what was happening over there--and over there and over there. These years, the years when the threats of Germany, Italy and Japan could have been dealt with quickly and effectively, were the period of most profound isolationism.

There is an irony here. A profound irony. A delicious irony for those who appreciate such things.

While We the People sat in our morass of fear, uncertainty and battling ideologies waiting for FDR and his bright core of experts to solve the never ending depression, war was brewing away in both Europe and Asia. When the war broke over our heads and shoulders with unmistakable force on Sunday 7 December 1941, it solved our depression.

Within six months of the bombs falling on Pearl Harbor we had suffered defeats on every front except one. That one? The Home Front.

The depression was as dead as the men lost at Pearl or on Bataan. We had full employment, full paychecks and would have had full lunches had it not been for rationing.

Playing to our fears FDR brought us a few reforms--some of which were and remain both useful and important. He also brought us the administrative state. Unfunded entitlements. And, worst of all, the unfounded expectation that the Federal Government could effectively address all the ails of economy and marketplace.

In conjunction with the fears of We the People, the administration of FDR also helped bring about as an unintended consequence the greatest and most destructive war in human history.

The New Deal for the American people may not have ended the depression but it did do much to assure the outbreak of the war which did bring recovery. At the cost of nearly a half million American lives.

That is something to remember today as we face genuine global threats to us and our interests. It is something to remember today as we face the latest storm of fears.

It is something to remember today as a man with a winning smile and a real gift for public speaking promises us "Change."

Some Countries Are Amusing and Some Are Dangerous

Iran is both.

Underneath its risible surface Iran is a lethal menace. The Iranian mullahocracy and the government which fronts for it is a weapon pointed at its own citizens. The same deadly duo is a life threatening condition for the Mideast.

And, potentially, for the world as a whole.

Given the recent remarks by Ayatollah Ahmed Elmalhoda that feminists are "whores and foreign spies," the Geek expects the count of female corpses to grow in the Islamic Republic as Stalwart Defenders of the Faith execute these vile suborners of the Revolution and the Will of Allah. For details see, http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Religion/?id=1.0.2200287203.

The Ayatollahs'take on feminism would simply be bitterly amusing were it not for the past record of the regime in blocking Internet sites seen somehow as facilitating the Tehran described "destabilizing" agendas of foreign governments sponsoring feminism as subversion. The potential for humor is drained by the simple reality that the mullahocracy's hatred and fear of women allows the continuation of a policy of death by stoning despite official avowals that the barbaric practice had been made illegal. (As if hanging, decapitation or shooting somehow made the killing of women for adultery any less primitive, barbaric and savage.)

Iran's threat to the peace and stability of the Mideast has been made abundantly clear in recent days by the success of its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as the meeting over the weekend between the Defense Ministers of Iran and Syria.

The Iranian threat to the region is also behind the recent interest in developing nuclear energy by the majority of the Mideast countries led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt. All of these eager seekers after the nuclear grail have taken the same line as the Iranians--they only want splittable atoms for the peaceful production of electricity.

Yeah. Right. And, "The check is in the mail," or "I'll call you tomorrow, babe."

Iranian nuclear ambitions also threaten the peace of the world. According to the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) the report cannot be made public (see the IAEA website http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2008/iranreport0508.html.) The New York Times along with about half the world's mainstream media have copies.

The NYT gave the report above the fold billing and quoted its tough language. Take a look--http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/world/middleeast/27iran.html?th&emc=th.

It comes as no shock that the Mouthpiece of the Revolution, PRESS-TV, saw the report as another IAEA award for Transparency in the Pursuit of Peace Loving Atoms. That view is at http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=57458&sectionid=351020104.

The Iranian Republic News Agency was more restrained--by Iranian standards downright understated in its well below the fold coverage. http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-20/0805279642004910.htm.

Regardless of framing, the underlying reality remains unchanged. Iran is seeking independent enrichment of uranium. It is installing new design, domestically fabricated high efficiency centrifuges. Foreign intelligence sources including but not limited to the US point at basic work conducted to provide effective weaponization of a uranium based bomb.

The mullahocracy has countered only by vitrupitation, denials and diversions such as the proposal for a conference that would include not only nuclear matters but regional concerns generally and Iranian worries about Venezuela and Bosnia.

What really makes Iran dangerous is not the nuclear stalemate per se.

No. What makes the mullahocracy and its facade government dangerous is the rapidity with which Iran is imploding economically, socially and politically.

For two years and more, capital has been fleeing Iran at an ever accelerating rate. This flight has been complemented by economic policies that can, at best, be characterized as suicidal. As a result, Iran is on the verge of uncontrollable hyperinflation.

For the moment Iran (along with Venezuela, its cohort in flirting with hyperinflation as well as partner in a recently announced joint bank) has been protected from its own economic throat slitting by the rise in oil prices. But, that rise is not unending. Indeed, it may have already ended without an extra barrel being pumped from the lands of OPEC.

Few governments have long survived hyperinflation.

Iran is also facing other internal problems. Unemployment is high and growing higher. At the least the national rate is twenty-five percent with higher percentages among the urban population generally and youth. The escalation in global food prices, in part caused by the rise in oil, is hitting a very large segment of the Iranian population very, very hard.

Another round of UN sanctions or even a more rigid enforcement of the sanctions regime currently in place will push the Iranian economy over the edge. The underlying discontent with the aging mullahocracy will be strongly exacerbated by the increase in the economic misery index.

When faced with a strong possibility of internal unrest, including violent opposition to the regime, governments have often sought to displace anger and frustration onto an external target. The Geek is certain that you can all think of examples.

The mullahocracy and its governmental talking dummies have already been taking that route. The "Zionist enemy" gets its unfair share of abuse daily. So also do the "Imperial powers" with the Great Satan at their head. Now, the feminists have been added to the list.

Rhetorical violence has its limits. At some point mere words do not counter the anger at the regime. Action is needed. Action that will both unify people behind government and vent the power of fear and hate.

The violence can be internally directed. Stone some women. Hang some "spies." Shoot some "traitors to the revolution."

However, unless the conditions that produced the original fear and anger are not addressed, even the most robust internal displacement measures will lose effect.

Considering the record to date of the Iranian mullahs, it is not too likely that things will improve in Shia Land.

External displacement measures will be necessary. In the words of an old Marx Brothers movie, "You realise, gentlemen, this means war!"

Of course the mullahs realise that.

Not that they care.

One way or another the theocracy is going to plunge down the tubes. At least in a war there is some chance to go down with glory.

And, come to think of it, since war is never predictable as to outcome, there is even some chance, Allah Willing, that the regime would come through intact.