Obama Better Not Quit Smoking Quite Yet

Reputedly cigarettes are an effective anodyne when a person is tense--stressed. The way things are going in Afghanistan (and elsewhere around the world) the incoming administration will be facing a very high uptightness factor.

To put it bluntly, the US is further away from the minimum necessary strategic goal of "not-losing" in Afghanistan today than it was even a few months ago. While the downhill trajectory of US fortunes in that miserable geographic expression was apparent early this year, only recently have the Deep Thinkers inside the Beltway gone public on it.

The most salient indicator of declining American fortunes comes with the announcement that US troops must be deployed in Logar and Wardak provinces south of Kabul. This is the first time that US combat units have been sent to these provinces. The first time that the US had to establish what amounts to a close-in perimeter defense of Kabul.

This development means that the roughly four thousand members of the 10th Mountain Division will not be going to the critical area on the Pakistan border. Rather than carrying the war to the bad guys on their transit routes to and from base camps in Pakistan, the 10th Mountain's Third Brigade will be guarding the Afghan capital. Protecting the rear so to speak.

Logar and Wardak have never been noted as centers of strong support for the Karzai regime. In recent months the reinvigorated Taliban has thoroughly penetrated the provinces, gaining significant (and growing) support from the folks who live there. It is clear that Taliban has made propaganda capital not only out of every US/NATO airstrike which produced civilian fatalities but also from their own "successes" such as the killing of three US troops and their Afghan interpreter last June in Wardak.

The level of popular support as well as the number of Taliban initiated incidents shows no sign of leveling off. Additionally, US and NATO intelligence in the two provinces is extremely limited to say the least. (Perhaps we should airdrop some satellite telephones or at least a few hundred cell phones so COMINT can have something to catch.)

Wardak and Logar have the potential to become the functional equivalent of the Parrot's Beak and War Zone D during the Vietnam War. Like these two infamous areas near Saigon, the two provinces have the real possibility of becoming black holes whose gravity wells have the power to suck in an endless number of American troops on missions which have importance only to the extent that they prevent or limit enemy offensives directed at the capital.

Wars are not won (or even "not lost") by defensive orientations or by granting the initiative to the enemy. They are not won (or even "not-lost") by protecting a capital, guarding a government, or preventing mediagenic enemy launched spectaculars of the Tet Offensive sort.

Wars are won (or "not-lost") by taking the initiative and holding it. They are won or "not-lost" by eroding the enemy's material capacity and political will to continue. In Afghanistan that means the critical physical terrain is along the border--not adjacent to the capital.

A second very strong indication of just how badly affairs are going in Afghanistan is the expectation that there will be no winter stand-down this year. Each of the past winters Taliban has invoked that hoary old notion of going into winter quarters when the weather turned from the merely miserable to the utterly execrable. Our side reciprocated in kind.

This year life will be a lot different and a lot worse for the grunts in-country. Taliban shows no sign of losing its momentum by retiring to warmer climes for the winter. Our technology gives us certain advantages even as the winds hit gale force, the snow gives new meaning to the term "blizzard conditions," and the ceiling drops to zero (along with the thermometer.) Taliban is taking a risk by keeping the war going but its leadership evidently believes that maintaining its psychological and political momentum is worth it.

A third indicator of the parlous state in which the US finds itself is the attack on the logistics support facilities in Peshawar. (OK, to err on the side of accuracy, the targets were two parking lots filled with US vehicles.) While the twin attacks might not have impaired US combat capacity, they do serve as another warning about the tenuous lines of supply on which our augmented forces will be dependent.

About three quarters of the supplies needed by our and allied forces in Afghanistan flows out of Peshawar up through the Khyber Pass. As any number of historical examples show, the Khyber is an easily blocked choke point. Before getting to the Khyber Pass the supplies must be trucked from the port of Karachi to Peshawar. Think of the highway as a long, long ambush site.

The Pakistani armed forces have not shown a convincing capacity to secure the land lines of communication. Heck, the Pakistani army couldn't even respond to the attacks in Peshawar despite having a large number of troops in the city. Given the prickly sensitivities of the Pakistanis regarding sovereignty, there is nothing the US can do directly to assure the proper securing of the critical lines of supply.

The President-elect opined this weekend that the economic conditions in the US were going to get worse before they get better. The same may be said concerning our efforts in Afghanistan. With one critical difference.

The difference?

We can be reasonably certain on several bases that the economy will improve ultimately. The same assurance does not exist regarding Afghanistan.

Our situation in Afghanistan will get worse. Of that we can be sure. There is no certainty that it will then, perforce, get better.

Best not quite smoking quite yet, Mr President-elect. The real high pucker time is yet to come.