The appearances have proven deceptive at the very least.
The Islamists of Chechnya--and the rest of the North Caucasus--have proven to have more lives than a brigade of cats. Despite boasts to the contrary ("Chechnya is now the safest place on Earth") the efforts of the Kremlin's (read "Putin's") handpicked local strongman, Ramzan Kadyrov, have failed to suppress or limit the will to fight on the part of the Islamists and, even more, their lady's auxiliary, the "Black Widows."
Not even the dispatch of yet one more retired KGB general last fall with orders "to clarify the situation and put it to order" has done other than bolster both the capacities and political will of the Islamist jihadi under the leadership of Doku Umarov. Umarov famously warned, "Blood will no longer be limited to our towns and cities. The war is coming to their cities."
And, so it has. Dramatically.
Even more, the war has been brought not simply to Moscow but straight to Vladimir (Just Think Of Me As The Good Czar) Putin.
Doku Umarov has personally slapped the glove of challenge in the face of Vlad The Bare Chested. While the "glove" was a pair of female suicide bombers reprising earlier attacks on the Metro subway and Russian domestic airliners, the fist inside the glove was Doku's.
The goal of the attack was not simply that of killing Moscow strap hangers. Nor was it limited to instilling terror in the city.
Doku is not the sort of Islamist who thinks that small. He is, after all, the self-styled "Emir" of the equally self-proclaimed Emirate of the Caucasus. Today's attack was intended to fry far larger fish.
Even if not followed by more spectaculars, this hit on the Metro puts the lie to the overly optimistic declaration a year ago by President Medvedev that Chechnya and environs were peaceful. Eager to agree, Ramzov proposed a fifteen billion dollar investment by the Kremlin with a view to turning Chechnya into a tourist magnet.
Well, that hallucination which should have been firmly put to rest by events later in 2009 most assuredly has been shredded by the shrapnel filled explosive belts detonated by the latest Black Widow team. Putin quite obviously both acknowledges this reality--and has accepted the personal nature of the challenge.
He cut short his trip to Siberia and, on his way to Moscow, promised to "destroy" the terrorists responsible. One should take Putin at his word. The record shows that Vladimir shares with past, successful Russian leaders a tilt to blunt speech--and blunt actions to match.
From Vladimir's perspective not only is his status on the line, so also is the Great Power status of Russia. The irony here is that only days after having levered the US successfully to achieve not only a new START but also the level of diplomatic and political attention and respect due a Great Power, the Black Widows prove that Russia is not master of its own house. That sort of thing does not further the credibility and good repute of a genuine Great Power.
If Vladimir Putin is to remain in power, under whatsoever job title, Doku Umarov and his scrofulous jihadist gang including the ladies auxiliary must be eliminated. If Russia is to continue to lay claim to the title Great Power, Doku Umarov and his crew must be eliminated. Or, to use that fine old Soviet origin term, "liquidated."
The repressive measures taken to date, most importantly those of the past few years following Putin's decision to localize the Chechen war and marginalize both its existence and its costs, have been sufficiently repressive enough to force the evolution of the insurgents from a local band focused on the local goal of autonomy to an internationally linked entity which accepts the unlimited vision of Islamism including but not limited to the creation of an independent Islamist republic in the North Caucasus.
During the same time period and for the same reasons the counterinsurgency efforts of the Putin team have not been such as to lever the insurgents of limited goals away from the more expansively oriented Islamists. The net result of the several military campaigns stretching back over a decade has been the creation of a lot of dead bodies. The dead bodies in turn have created an ever greater number of ever more dedicated and expansively oriented insurgents whose fury has been stoked by foreign Islamists.
The dead bodies of the two wars and numerous "anti-bandit" operations have created another reality, a reality which is not only the centerpiece of today's Metro attack but is far more typical of the Caucasus conflict than it is other Islamist insurgencies. That reality is the female suicide bombers long ago dubbed the "Black Widows" not only because they are widows or because they habitually dress in black, but because they are highly lethal in both intents and actions.
The "Black Widows" are a product of the culture of the Caucasus. They are not specifically Islamist nor even Islamic. Rather they are part and parcel of the long traditions of family and clan loyalty which includes the blood feud and revenge over generations. The "Black Widows" are avenging the deaths of their husbands, fathers, brothers, sons. They are a culturally approved expression of an underlying "payback is a medivac" worldview.
The Black Widows can be killed but otherwise they are an unstoppable force. Recognizing this, the Islamist jihadists of Umarov readily employ this priceless asset. This asset ably employed by a leadership which is also quite willing and capable of employing other mediagenic tactics such as seizing hospitals, theaters, and schools filled with the sick, the young or, at least, the civilian, knowing what the Russian response will, must, be.
The choice presented to Vladimir Putin and company is simple and stark. Create a desert and name it "Peace" and by so doing risk the opprobrium of the world, or at least the Great Powers (other than China.) Do less and run the real risk of both political collapse domestically and the loss of even the pretense of Great Power status globally.
Putin used the word "destroy" so it is apparent which way he is tilting. It is unfortunate that he cannot face Umarov mano a mano, since that possibility and that one alone would allow the "Good Czar" to win without losing even more in the process.
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