The general view in the Arab political and military circles is that the US is neither able nor willing to pressure Israel into making necessary concessions. Admittedly the concessions sought by assorted Arab states are maximal and seemingly unreasonable in the extreme. Still, one should note that the Arab negotiating posture has always started with the maximum not unlike the merchant who always goes to a stratospheric price first.
The Arabs have a long history of intransigence and obstinate refusal to adjust their demands and expectations to a level consonant with reality. The intransigence and obstinacy are made worse by the political pressure placed upon Arab regimes by the potent Islamist factions in their populations. This pressure will not abate; it can only increase.
That the negative view of American good office capacities is universal among both military and political leaders in the region was conveyed quite bluntly to a delegation from CENTCOM touring their area of responsibility last December. Time after time in meeting after meeting in one country after another the CENTCOM ears were filled with the same refrain.
The words went rather like this: The US cannot (or will not) stand up to Israel. We have lost faith in the American promises. The US is not believable on any matter because it is not believable regarding Israel. US standing here is in decline, rapid decline. The US must deliver on Israel or we will have to look elsewhere for our security.
In mid-January a senior level crew from CENTCOM briefed Admiral Mullen with a forty-five minute, thirty-three slide Powerpoint presentation which stunningly portrayed the collective CENTCOM synopsis of the situation within its primarily Arab and Muslim area of responsibility. Reputedly the JCS Chairman had never before received a briefing such as this, at least on the Mideast, one which focused not simply on military considerations but one which included the political context in which military matters existed.
Since military affairs never exist absent the political context, this reality is surprising in and of itself. When the fusion of religion and politics resident in Islam is taken into account, the lacking of earlier similarly inclusive briefings is downright shocking.
The substance of the briefing, the nature of Arab complaints and doubts is inherently plausible. There can be no doubt but the Arab states whether in the Gulf or further to the west desire, no, demand that the US do the heavy lifting. It is an imperative within the Arab states generally that the US be forced to compel Israel to accept a peace settlement with the Palestinians and other Arabs which closely approximates the maximum demand.
The assorted members of the Arab League which, after all, constitutes much of CENTCOM's remit are both unable and unwilling to compromise on their maximum demands beyond grudgingly acknowledging that Israel may have a "right" to exist. Politically, culturally, even temperamentally, Arab Muslims do not know the meaning of the word "compromise." Force, compulsion, coercion, whether direct or indirect, is the Arab Muslim approach to problem solving.
Having proven repeatedly that they are not up to the task of coercing Israel either through direct military action or the less blunt methods of terrorism and diplomatic isolation, the political and military leaders of the oil shaykdoms and other authoritarian states now seek to force the US to do the compelling. This is nothing new. The feudal oil states under the leadership of Saudi Arabia tried to do this using the "oil weapon" bestowed upon them by the grace of Allah.
There are among us those old enough to remember the oil embargoes of the Seventies, the long lines at the few open gas stations, the stand-by rationing systems, the cost explosions. The carping, whining, and complaining of those who were inconvenienced or worse by the "oil weapon's" effects lingered long and loud. Still when the lines lessened, prices stabilized, the net effect of the Saudi inspired "pressure" was zero, zilch. The "oil weapon" proved to be a fizzle yield device.
Now the ever churning minds of the obstinate churls of the desert are trying a new gambit. It is the all-too-evident hope of the Saudis et al to capitalize on the apprehension over Iran which runs throughout Washington. The reactionaries of the Arabian Peninsula are saying, in effect, "We think the US is weak, lacking both will and strength. So we will have to look elsewhere for new alliances to assure our security."
The words of Maxwell Smart come to mind. "The trick is old. The trick is stupid. The trick worked."
CENTCOM was obviously shaken by the Arab (implicit) threat. Ankle deep in Yemen, knee deep in Iraq, and neck deep in Afghanistan, the commanders of CENTCOM do not need to hear this sort of threat. They (over) reacted to it as is demonstrated by the proposal to include the Palestinian Authority in CENTCOM's mission portfolio.
How CJCS Admiral Mullen did or will react is not yet clear. How the JCS did or will react is also unknown. It is enough that CENTCOM reacted as it did. While no military commander, particularly one with a very full plate before him, likes to receive messages implying lack of both political will and material capacities, to receive them with a sense of panic and impending doom is inapposite to say the least.
The knee knocking at CENTCOM and not the flap surrounding the Biden trip to Israel is the real news coming from the Israeli-Arab front in recent weeks. It is necessary for the boys and girls down around Tampa way to stop hyperventilating and meditate a bit. The Arab "threat" is less real in its potential exercise than would be another employment of the "oil weapon."
Sunni Arab states are far more worried than is Europe (or the US) regarding the impending possession of nuclear weapons by the eschatologically inclined Shia regime of Iran. They are far more vulnerable to Iranian backed subversion and terror than is Europe, the US, or even Pakistan. Being militarily incompetent, the states of the Gulf, of the Arab Mideast generally, have no choice but to nail their assorted green flags to the American mast.
If they are really, really worried about either American political will or military capacity, it is due to their extreme reliance upon both to deter Iran or defend the region against Iranian attacks be they direct or indirect. Yes, the assorted Emirs, Kings, and Presidents of the Arab states would dearly love to see the US muscle Israel into some semblance of submission to their demands. A demonstration of American "toughness" directed against Israel--even if no Palestinian advantage were to be gained--would be seen as proof that the US could be relied upon to fulfill its role in protecting the Sunni Arab despotates.
That, bucko, is the real deal behind the Arab's purportedly negative views of the US. The subtext is this, "Get tough with Israel so we can believe you will be tough with Iran."
Of course getting "tough" with Israel might have the collateral benefit of helping the Palestinian cause. But, that is secondary.
You gotta say this about the Arabs: What they lack in subtlety they more than make up for in dedication to national interest.
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