As Mark Twain famously remarked, "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."
The US and its global influence were declared dead during the Seventies in the wake of the Vietnam debacle and the hype-ridden aftermath of the Watergate break-in, the impeachment proceedings against Richard M. Nixon. However, much to the dismay of both the domestic blame-America-first and all those Yankee hating members of the European hoi oligoi, the US came back from the morgue to which it had been prematurely assigned.
During the Eighties following the Reagan recession which ended the decade of stagflation and ushered in the de-industrialization of the US, the pundits and prophets both here and abroad solemnly announced that the American Century had come to an end. The US was being replaced both economically and diplomatically by Japan, Incorporated. All things Japanese were lauded to the edge of deep space while all things American were deprecated.
Once again Uncle Sam refused to recline for the post-mortem. Japan entered a long age of deflation and the US cruised to new levels of prosperity. The Cold War ended with the US being the last man standing. And, in a display of coalition building the US led the effort to toss Iraq from Kuwait.
The theme of American decline reemerged during the Clinton administration. This recrudescence was minor compared to the earlier death notices, but was put to rest when the US economy showed new robustness after a (very) short hiatus and the Clinton team of lawyers put aside their unease with untidiness long enough for the Bosnian intervention.
Now the prognosticators of America's imminent demise have come back, bigger and seemingly more justified than ever. Making the current predictions of the decline and fall of "the American Empire" more believable than before is the simple fact that roughly half of We the People share the belief.
Leaving aside the sheer nonsense of using the term "Empire" to describe the relationship of the US with the rest of the world, the fact remains that the US is under severe pressure from a number of interlocking factors which does seem to justify a guarded prognosis at best. Even more reinforcement for the view that the US is on the skids is found in that most of the constellation of enervating problems are of our own political making.
To put the matter bluntly: The decline of both the structural integrity of the American economy and the perceived legitimacy of the Federal government are homemade. They are both self-inflicted wounds.
The tsunami of national debt which could go to many times the total GDP in coming years as well as the dependence upon foreign funding of this debt are the creation of the Federal government. Responsibility for this wound resides with both Republicans and Democrats, both the Executive and Congress. The existence of the debt and the concomitant reliance upon China and other less-than-friendly governments to underwrite it did not just happen. The sorry and weakening state of affairs was created by a succession of agendas pursued vigorously by politicians of both parties. It is the result of belief (and the power of special interests) held deeply by both the neocon ninnies of the Bush/Cheney years and the Progressive ninnies of more recent vintage.
This judgement requires a follow-on evaluation. The ultimate responsibility for the perhaps fatal weakening of the American economy and faith in the governmental institutions of the US finally resides with We the People. We have both allowed and encouraged the fiscal hemorrhaging. We allowed, encouraged, demanded the access to cheaper foreign made products, the loss of a manufacturing base, the shrinkage of domestic savings base. We have demanded more, ever more from Washington without any regard as to how the money would be found.
In short We the People have proved that de Tocqueville was right nearly two centuries ago when he predicted that the ultimate failure of American democracy would come when We the People discovered we could vote ourselves goodies from government. We, whether as individuals or as corporate fictions, not only allowed but required that the Federal government do more for us, give us more goodies, make life today somehow better while saying, "Screw the future, we don't live there."
At the same time a trajectory launched in the Thirties by FDR during the First and Second New Deals and boosted by the "Judicial Revolution" of 1937 gave us the ever larger, ever more remote administrative state comprising bureaucracies beyond count, one-size-fits-all regulations beyond comprehension, and bureaucrats without faces. The distant and impersonal administrators and functionaries chipped away at the belief that government was both responsible and responsive to the citizenry.
In the past year both the negative financial situation and the loss of perceived legitimacy of the Federal government have accelerated. Regardless of the reasons adduced by the proponents of both the "transformational agenda" put forth by the Obama administration and the Progressive Caucus in Congress, the results have been uniformly negative for the longer term status of the US on the global stage.
Foreign observers take a dekko at the current stasis in Washington which has the health care overhaul as its center and conclude (as does the Obama administration) that the Federal government, indeed the political process, is irreparably broken. This is a valid view albeit a superficial one. It sees the stasis but not the idiocy underlying it.
It should be noted here that the word "idiot" and its variants such as "idiocy" have a Greek root, idiotes. In the original language the word denoted a person who did not meaningfully engage in the political life of his nation.
Until very recently too many of We the People have been idiots in this way-back-when meaning. We have not meaningfully engaged in political life. We have been too quick and too eager to practice the politics of what's-in-it-for-me? rather than what is best for us as a collective nation.
Making us even more idiotic has been the siren song of the politics of victimization. Compounding our status as idiots has been the blind following of ideological flags. No matter how one spins reality, the "neo liberal" approaches of Bill Clinton with globalization and opening trade to China as well as the "neocon" policies of George W. Bush were intellectually blinkered by True Belief in ideologies rather than reality based attempts to advance American national interests.
True Belief results in failed policies more often than not. It is not surprising that we are living in the midst of failure today.
If the predictions of the decline and near-term fall of the US as the major global force are to be proven wrong it will be the result of We the People accepting, demanding really, a 180 degree change of course.
It will be necessary for We the People to demand less from both the Federal government and the market.
It will be necessary for We the People to do the impossible--vote away the goodies, the promises of security and safety offered by the central government.
It will be necessary for We the People to turn away from the Federal government and turn toward the local or state governments or, perish the thought, to ourselves, for comfort, safety, security, and the other better things of life.
It will be necessary for We the People to do the unthinkable. Demand of ourselves a fair degree of sacrifice as individuals for the better future of our nation.
It will be necessary for We the People to demand that our government stop trying to project a presence everywhere in the world in order that our core national and strategic interests can be both protected and advanced.
Unless We the People are willing and able to abandon our comfortable idiocy, we will shortly be living in a world where China is the preeminent power. A world where Islamist jihadists are a fact of everyday life. A world in which the values we once espoused, fought and died for are far more endangered than the spotted owl.
Unless We the People abandon our comfortable idiocy, we will be citizens of an irrelevant country, a country which can be ignored with impunity by any and every other country, large or small.
Shoveling dirt in Uncle Sam's face may be the perfect dream for many in the hoi oligoi, but it would not be good for the hoi polloi of the world--or the US. While one (unnamed) member of the Obama administration was reported to have said, "We were elected to preside over the graceful decline of the US," this low ambition can be thwarted by We the People. But, only if we stop being idiotes.
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