At the time of independence it was evident that ethnic and religious faultlines ran across the Nigerian social and political landscapes. The most important of the several critical divides in Nigeria split the Muslims of the Hausa and Fulani tribes of the semi-desert north from the Christian and animist Yoruba and Igbo of the agrarian and oil producing south. The second division separated the Yoruba and Igbo.
The Igbo of the southeast demonstrated their displeasure with the state of play in Nigeria in January 1966 with a violent coup which saw the death of the president and prime minister both of whom were from the north. July 1966 brought the inevitable counter coup staged by northern Muslims. In the aftermath some 30,000 Igbo were killed.
Before the bodies of the massacred had rotted, the Igbo announced the creation of Biafra. The resulting war was one of confusing, rapidly shifting, and highly transient alliances of convenience and perceived advantage. When the shooting was over more than a million people were dead, primarily of starvation and disease, and the military was in power at first indirectly but finally as a blunt military dictatorship.
A new, civilian constitution was adopted in 1999. It provided for elections. Elections were duly held with the expectable amount of corruption, vote fraud, and voter intimidation. But, none of this really mattered.
The big noise in Nigeria was limited to the oil rich region of the Niger River delta. Every government, military, and civilian had made deals with Western multinationals to exploit the oil reserves. Whether playing wth Chevron or Royal Dutch Shell the governments and associated Nigerian elite made out like bandits. The residents of the delta did not do so well. In fact they did not do well at all. The foreigners got the oil; the elite got the gold; the locals got the pleasure of living on less than peanuts in a toxic rich environment.
The consequence was completely expectable: Insurgency. Several anti-government groups emerged over the past thirty or so years. The largest and most effectively intransigent of these was the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND.)
In actual numbers MEND is small. What makes it effective is the unique combination of being self-organizing and willing to hire assorted criminal gangs as a sort of guerrilla version of "temp" employee. MEND is also self-funding to a large extent gaining revenues from hijacking oil pipelines and trucks as well as practicing kidnapping for ransom.
The result is MEND has made its efforts both profitable and low risk--at least to those who constitute the command and coordination cadre. At the same time the combination of total governmental ineptitude and corporate pigheadedness has provided a fine gloss of patriotic humanitarianism to MEND which other insurgent groups have lacked.
The recent attempt by the former administration of ailing president Umaru Musa Yar'adua to bring the rebels out of the marshes and to the peace table by offering amnesty has been accepted by most of the lesser groups but violently and dramatically rejected by MEND. The big boys of MEND showed their negative attitude by bombing a pair of government buildings during the amnesty talks last week.
Complicating the government's difficulties is the de facto change of government. The former vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, has consolidated his power by sacking the former Muslim dominated cabinet and replacing them with personnel who are palpably loyal to him. The degree to which this indigenous form of "regime change" will prove acceptable to the Muslim north to say nothing of the Muslim officered national army is debatable at best.
The sixty-three year old Jonathan is from eastern (Yoruba dominated) Nigeria. He is a zoologist (PhD from the University of Harcourt) turned politician. He came to prominence when he replaced the former governor of Bayelsa State who was impeached for money laundering in the UK. It deserves mention that his wife was indicted in 2006 by the Nigerian Economic and Financial Crimes Commission for money laundering. (But, that sort of thing is not uncommon in Nigerian political circles.)
Jonathan's assumption of power is clouded by doubts as to its legality. That is also nothing new in Nigerian political affairs. There is no doubt but the man's money and contacts were critical in assuring both the Supreme Court and Senate ignored constitutional requirements in certifying Jonathan's taking the reins of power during the president's "incapacitation."
If Jonathan's hold on power is shaky the same may be said of Nigeria's current stability. Shaky is almost too mild a word to describe the bowl of semi-hardened jello which constitutes Nigeria's current political and social situation.
MEND is intransigent to an extent which would do Hamas proud. The chances of the other insurgent groups following through with their initial acceptance of the amnesty offer are slim to none.
Worse, far worse, is the continued religiously motivated violence in Plateau State centering on the city of Jos. This is the area where Muslim and non-Muslim rub against one another most frequently and most uncomfortably.
There have been more than a few eruptions of religiously predicated violence in and near Jos over the past twenty years. The most recent was an evidently orchestrated Muslim attack on Christians in several villages near Jos. Roughly five hundred Christians were hacked, sliced, and otherwise put to death.
Despite being in the area, the several Nigerian army units did not show up at the killing fields until after the bloodshed had ceased. Under significant international pressure, the state and central governments made a great public show out of arresting nearly one hundred fifty alleged killers. Whether there will be any follow through on the arrests is in the not-yet-knowable department but is doubtful at best.
The reasons for doubt are not simply political--the less than firm hold possessed by Jonathan. Nor are they to be found simply in the Muslim presence in the armed forces, although this is a very important consideration. At root the doubts are based on demographics.
Nigeria is the largest population state in sub-Saharan Africa with just shy of 150 million people. This means the density of population is very high--particularly considering the agricultural carrying capacity of the country's land. Only a third of the country's land is technically arable; of that only three percent is planted in permanent crops. Lessening the country's capacity to feed even most of its population are deforestation, soil degradation and recurrent droughts.
The demographics of the population are skewed to the left. The majority of the population is young--nineteen is the median age. On top of this their life expectancy is not good--forty-six for men, two year longer for women. And, the rate of increase is two percent per year. Further stress comes from the high HIV infection rate and equally staggering number of people with active AIDS--roughly three million. (This makes Nigeria the number two country in the world for AIDS patients surpassed only by South Africa.)
This combination of demographic factors which includes as well two Muslim related facts--the population is half Muslim and the Muslims have a population growth rate greater than other groups in the country--assures instability will increase rather than decrease in the months and years to come. Think about it: A very large, rapidly growing, young population with very limited employment potential coupled with a cultural context emphasizing ethnic/linguistic/religious division with attendant violence all based on deficient agricultural resources and stressed by disease.
Now a word or two about oil. Nigeria must exploit and export its oil. Not simply so the elite can continue to line their pockets but because Nigeria has to pay for the food it must have in order to assure even minimum survival levels of life.
The oil is in the (Christian and animist) South. It is not available directly to the rapidly expanding Muslim population. And, without the money the oil produces the Muslims will be the first to be left twisting in the winds of Plateau State and regions to the north of Plateau.
This mix of demographic and economic realities gives MEND its power. MEND and only MEND due to its unique combination of public image, self-organizing capacities, and rent-a-thug militants can directly threaten the flow of oil and bucks.
The Muslims are aware of their tenuous position. It is this awareness which gives the primary Muslim insurgent group, Boko Haram, its potency. Boko Haram is normally (mis) translated as "western education is sacrilegious" but its actual rendering should be "Western Civilization is Forbidden." Bako Haram is avowedly anti-West in all respects. It has the unlimited offensive insurgent goal of totally replacing the present political, social, and economic structure of Nigeria with one based on a very austere version of Seventh Century Islam. Think of it as Taliban or al-Shabaab on steroids.
Recruits are plentiful in the large swath of poorly governed territory extending from Jos to the border of Chad. While the leader of Boko Haram was killed last July 30th there has been no weakening of the group, no lessening in either its goals or methods. In large measure this is the result of Boko Haram being self-organizing with its members being united in ideology and goals but not dependent upon a centralized command and control structure.
The US is more than simply concerned about the state of play in Nigeria. The current plans afoot in the US foresee an increase in our oil imports from Nigeria until they reach twenty-five percent of total foreign oil brought to our shores. The implications for the US and its economy are already quite obvious as spot market prices rise dramatically after even rumors of an impending attack on the oil facilities of the Niger Delta.
The volatility can only increase as more violence engulfs not only the Delta but Nigeria as a whole. Given the status of Goodluck Jonathan's regime, it is a safe bet that both violence and its concomitant, market spikes, will trend up not down.
Considering the totality of the circumstances prevailing now and in the near-term, the prospects of Nigeria entering the lists of "failing states" are good to excellent. Muammar Gaddafi (or however you prefer to spell his name in English) was more right than wrong when he suggested that Nigeria split into two separate states--one Muslim and the other non-Muslim.
The only problem with this modest proposal from the noted humanitarian and world statesman is this solution would leave the Muslims in the impoverished and hungry dark, shut out of the oil powered lamp of the Christian and animist South. The Muslims of Boko Haram may hate the West, may desire the total reconstruction of Nigeria according to Shariah, but not even these True Believers wish to starve in pursuit of Koranic purity.
The natural direction of Nigeria may be to fission. It is too bad in a way that reality prevents the accomplishment of a tidy ending to the imitation state. But it does and that is the fact that confronts not only Goodluck (He will need it) Jonathan but also the policy makers of the Obama administration. Good luck to them as well.
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