Miraculous as it to relate, we are acting as if we are both a Pacific Ocean power and a Great Power. Specifically, the US has just engaged in a nifty little bit of force projection. Three of the four Ohio class SSBNs converted from hauling Trident ICBMs to carting 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles each have been deployed to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
On 28 June the USS Ohio surfaced near Subic Bay in the Philippines. On the same day two other boats, the USS Michigan popped up off Pusan, South Korea while the USS Florida emerged from the depths at Diego Garcia.
The essentially simultaneous surfacing of three boats with a total of four hundred sixty-two Tomahawks was a guaranteed attention grabber. Governments which are not noted for their close and collaborative relations with the US (can we say, "China" or "North Korea") must have felt, as intended, a slight, cold chill run up their metaphorical spines. In an understated but quite dramatic way the US reminded all hands in Asia that it had an unrivaled capacity to project force anywhere the oceans of the world ran.
Four hundred sixty-two non-nuclear warheads--that's a quarter of million tons of high explosive in aggregate--were positioned to hit targets with a high degree of accuracy anywhere inside twenty-five hundred klicks of the launch site. That's a lot of bang, and, given the combination of targeting, air defense capacities, and saturation launching, a lot of bang with a high probability of getting through to the designated point on the map.
In large part, as the deployment points make clear, this show of force is a push back against the increasingly robust Chinese presence in the South China Sea as well as its installation of roughly a thousand missiles of various sorts near the Strait of Taiwan. For some time states in the West Pacific, ranging from Australia to Vietnam to Japan and South Korea have been urging the US government (and the Oval in particular) to show a calibrated degree of macho in the region.
And, finally, belatedly but effectively, the US has done just that. Taken in conjunction with the very large Rim of the Pacific war games off Hawaii, which involves no fewer than fourteen countries, and the smaller but closer CARAT 2010 exercises off Singapore in which ships from the US Navy and the navies of eight other countries are participating, the presence of the three Ohio class conversions is a very, very compelling shot across the bows of any adversarial government.
The Trolls of Beijing got the message. The Trolls' acknowledgement of the new reality was conveyed by the extremely restrained words of the Chinese foreign ministry. There were no shrill accusations of "Cold War mentality" or "retrogressive actions." No. There was simply a response showing that the Chinese government "hoped" the mission was intended to secure regional "stability, security and peace."
They got that right. There is nothing like a bit of quiet force projection to insure those three desirable states prevail.
China is not the only intended recipient of the message being sent by the one time boomers and the twin naval exercises. Three hundred plus of the BGM-109s are now uncomfortably close to the Democratic Republic of North Korea.
The Hermits of Pyongyang undoubtedly understand quite well that the potential barrage of reasonably accurate Tomahawks could not be stopped and could inflict unacceptable damage on critical targets. With only a few clicks of the mouse and turning of launch keys, North Korea would find itself caught in the "sea of fire" which it has so often and loudly proclaimed to be the fate of the South. And, that would occur without a single American coming into range.
North Korea has announced its sudden willingness to come back to the Six Power Talks. It is conceivable that Dear Leader and Associates made the decision out of gratitude for the milksop Security Council Statement on the sinking of the Choenan. Well, it is one theory.
If one wants to do so, one could credit the Chinese imposed restraint of the Security Council action plus creative Chinese diplomacy with the change in Pyongyang's attitude. Or, one could posit that the sudden and quite unstoppable presence of the Tomahawk carrying US submarines showed the Hermits that the limits of American patience were in sight.
It is possible that even Mr Obama has had it up to his dandruff with the stance taken by North Korea and decided that the US had big sticks which it might as well wave to good effect. At least it would be nice to conclude the US president had suffered a bout of realism. Or, that someone such as SecDef Gates had gotten through to the president. That the president had finally been made to realize the use of force, symbolically in this case, could do more to preserve both peace and American interests than the much loved open hand of outreach.
Whatever the reason and whoever made the decision to add the dramatic appearance of the Ohio class boats to the mix of previously scheduled exercises has done a real service to both the US and the cause of regional stability. A well timed and discretely executed show of force provides a fine sort of coercive diplomacy.
Coercive diplomacy focuses the mind of the recipient on the need, the imperative for the less robust form of diplomacy, the talks and memos of what used to be called the "striped pants set." In short, a bit of illustrative coercion creates the proper atmosphere for negotiations. Now it will be interesting to see how the US, China, North Korea, and the others progress at the bargaining table.
Throughout the talks, be they long or short, productive or sterile, the long shadow of the Tomahawks will be hanging over the proceedings. And, that may be the most potent force for good.
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