The Congo Goes To Hell--What Else Is New?

History is alive and well in the Democratic Republic of the Congo! For the umpteenth time in the Congo's less than fifty years of independence, refuges flee and "rebels" advance.

This time around, the "renegade" is General Laurent Nkunda. With him are approximately five thousand well equipped, well trained fighters. Behind Nkunda and his five thousand apparently very effective trigger-pullers is a political entity called the National Congress for the Defense of People (CNDP.)

The people being defended, like the gun-toters of Nkunda' force are Tutsi. Many of these Tutsis are left overs from the refugee camps in the eastern Congo formed nearly fifteen years ago in the wake of the Rwanda genocide. Others, probably most, are natives of the Congo.

The national identity of the troops and "protected people" gives good reason to believe reports that behind the CNDP and Nkunda's force is the small but very well trained, equipped and motivated army of Rwanda.

The prize in play is not the territorial capital of Rutshuru or even the major center of Goma with its refugee inflated population of 600,000. These are unimportant.

The prize is the mineral rich eastern section of the Congo. The east, centering on Katanga province, is the economic heart of the Western Europe sized country. It has always been the focus of the coups, counter-coups, uprisings, take-overs and the like which have marked the history of the Congo since June 1960.

While Nkunda recently proclaimed his intention to "liberate" all of the Congo, the real aims of the General and those behind him are far more limited in geographic scope. Katanga will do just fine, thank you.

This is not to say that Nkunda and the CNDP are not expansive in their ambitions. Both the General and his political peers started operations with the stated goal of protecting the Tutsi from the depredations of the Hutu militia, which crossed into the Congo to avoid the consequences of their genocidal acts.

Wars between various parties have been the hallmark of the Katanga region since 1997. The most recent ceasefire brokered by the UN between Nkunda and the government lasted from January to August of this year. This means it lasted a little longer than most ceasefires brought about by international agencies over the past forty-eight years.

The UN deployed a 17,000 member peacekeeping force in support of the ceasefire. It is a typical UN collection, mixing a few good units with assorted rabble. It could keep the peace as long as Nkunda and company allowed it to.

Time to get a grip.

There are two realities underlying the current stream of refugees to say nothing of such ancillaries as the UN helicopters firing without demonstrable effect upon the advancing "rebels" and the locals heaving rocks at the ineffectual "peacekeepers."

The first, most important reality is simply that the Congo is not and never has been a nation-state. Like other failed or failing states such as Afghanistan, Somalia and Sudan, it is a mere geographical expression.

The Congo came into existence a century and a quarter ago as the result of the personal ambition, greed and diplomatic skill of one man. King Leopold of the Belgians saw that exploiting the resources, human and otherwise, of a large and unclaimed area of Africa would lead to great personal wealth and status. His lengthy and often brilliant campaign of duplicity and taking advantage of rivalries between several of the European Great Powers resulted in the birth of Leopold's personal preserve--the Congo.

Over the next half century and more the raping of the Congo was looked upon with favor by the Great Powers including the US because its resources ranging from rubber to uranium were critical to economic growth or even victory in at least one war. Independence came more quickly and completely than any, repeat, any outside observer whether Belgian or otherwise thought either wise or possible.

Independence ignited a seemingly endless series of internal wars including genocidal violence directed against the small number of Belgians who stayed behind for reasons both selfish and altruistic. Stability, the stability of efficient repression, finally emerged under the dictatorship of a one time clerk for the Colonial Police, Joseph Mobutu. The US supported Mobutu through most of his less than gentle ruling period as a consequence of Cold War imperatives.

Mobutu's megalomaniac reign came to an end not long after the collapse of the Soviet Union rendered his version of law and order nugatory. Then, once again, it was let-the-killing-begin.

The wars both official and informal of the past decade and a half along with the underlying fractionation of any sort of body politic in the Congo has left the place both without a viable central regime, any sense of pervasive loyalty to a national entity on the part of most inhabitants and a long series of scores demanding settlement now and into the future.

The Congo is a failing if not yet a completely failed state. Any attempt by the African Union, the UN or the US to pretend the contrary is simply to perpetuate the bloodshed and attendant horrors. Period.

If outside agencies such as the AU and UN want to pretend the Congo is a viable nation-state, if the High Minded in Western Europe and the US want to wish the Congo would become a progressive model of enlightened liberal democracy, there is only one option. And, it ain't peacekeeping.

No.

The option is peace imposition. Imposing even a semblance of peace on the Congo will require a very major effort. Increasing the current 17,000 member UN force twenty fold would scarcely be enough.

Imposing peace will require combat. Combat requires death. Death will not be limited to combatants in or out of uniform.

Combat generates refugees in enormous numbers. As recent years have shown conclusively massive numbers of refugees have two consequences: Humanitarian crisis and future generations of gunslingers.

Absent both the political will and material resources for a major, prolonged military operation including years of occupation, the choices for dealing with the wreckage of the geographical expression called the Congo are few.

Essentially there are two. Keep on with the charade of peacekeeping in the hopes that some diplomatic/political miracle will occur and peace will break out. Accept that Nkunda and his merry band will take Goma and then Katanga with the hope that then peace will break out.

The Geek won't bet on either bringing a new era of fellowhip and love to the place.

History is powerful, too powerful for a Disney-type ending.