Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Sarkozy Is Blunt. But Right On

The Geek gives French President Nicholas Sarkozy a really big "thumbs-up." Not only is he the first TACAMO type to lead the French since le grande Charles, he has a unique willingness to call things as he sees them--a quality which would benefit politicians in other countries.

His most recent demonstration of Harry Truman style "plain speaking" came in a closed meeting of French diplomatic personnel. Fortunately some of Sarkozy's observations leaked out around the locked doors. To cut to the chase: Nick the Man eviscerated Senator Obama's stance on Iran.

According to Haaretz (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031943.html) Sarkozy perceives the views of the Nice Young Man From Chicago as "utterly immature." He went on to note that Obama's position was based on "formulations empty of all content."

Back during the all-conquering Obama World Tour last July, the French president met at some length with the smiling senator. At the shake-and-grin press conference afterwards, Obama allowed as how the Iranian nuclear research and development effort was serious and endangered Israel.

The Obama exhortation directed at least in part to the mullahocracy was a slight genuflection to Sarkozy's strong argument that any change in direction regarding Iran by the next US president would be "very problematic."

Apparently now Sarkozy fears that Obama might "arrogantly" ignore the semi-united front offered by the P5+1 to open direct talks with the mullahs. Without preconditions, if one takes the Nice Young Man at his word.

Over the months since meeting with Obama on his European Triumph, Sarkozy has reportedly fretted over the reality that the senator's position on Iran was "not crystallized" and like unset Jello could wiggle all over the plate--and the table. Reportedly senior advisers of Sarkozy who met with the Nice Young Man came away with an identical set of impressions.

The criticism leveled by Sarkozy against Senator Obama on Iran could be extended accurately to other important foreign policy venues. Arguably, the Nice Young man has positions on Iraq and Afghanistan which are not yet "crystallized" or are "utterly immature" and founded on "formulations empty of all content."

One cannot help but wonder whether a man who is obviously without the slightest grip on the realities of Islamist goals and strategies or the nature of counterinsurgency would take charge and move out on Afghanistan where the US could still fail to achieve the minimum necessary strategic goal of "not-losing." Considering that Obama clings to the long disproved thesis that poverty causes Islamist terrorism, how would he deal with the on-going struggle with those who promote and employ indiscriminate violence to effect political change?

Sarkozy and an increasing number of European political leaders and opinion molders are becoming increasingly aware that there is an alternative worse than the hyper-hawk unilateralism of George W. Bush and Associates. The growing consensus is that an Obama in the Oval would have a high probability of resulting in super-dove unilateralism.

The world is a far more unstable and dangerous place than the Nice Young Man appears to recognize. Islamists litter the mountainsides in Afghanistan. They also lurk in the souks and mosques spreading in the vast arc from Morocco to Indonesia.

The North Koreans are nuclear and less than predictable. The Russians are upgrading their military capacities both conventional and nuclear. The PRC is an ever more potent threat to US interests both in Asia and around the world.

Then there are the failed and failing "states" of Africa.

Of course, there is the growing trend to dictatorship in Latin America led by Hugo Chavez whose latest "democratic" move is jailing of opposition candidates in the upcoming provincial and municipal elections less than two weeks after We the People may give Obama the keys to power.

The Geek could go on, but it is too depressing. Suffice it to mention the glowering presence of a global recession (depression?) and the historical reality that very bad economic times are usually associated with increases in international political instability and the rise of revolutionary regimes promising prosperity at the expense of others.

You want to bet on Joe Biden bringing adult supervision to the Obama Administration?

Don't. That was the role presumed to be fulfilled by Dick Cheney in the current administration. We know how that came out. Not that the Geek sees Biden as another Cheney. He isn't. Not goal oriented (or if you prefer) sociopathic enough.

Even so, Joe the Bloviator is not suitable for the mission of adult supervision. There is one reason for this the Geek opines based on reviewing Biden's Senatorial career.

In foreign policy and national security matters, Joe the Mouth is roughly as competent as Joe the Plumber.

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