It's The Economy, Stupid!

We the People may hope that life is that simple. The politicos may fervently wish that the next four years will revolve around the economy alone. Even the MSM may wish to pretend that life is so one dimensional that economic man will occupy its attention to the exclusion of all else.

Heck, wouldn't that be nice? In comparison to foreign affairs and national security policy, economic matters--even the collapse of major banks--seems so simple. It's all a matter of money. And, money is just so manageable. Right?

Sure, spending money is easy. Appropriating money is easy as well. Collecting money is harder, but not so hard as solving foreign policy dilemmas.

The Geek has to admit it would be enjoyable for him if the world would simply go away for a few years. He has a backlog of books to read. And, he has gotten bored with watching the same global problems rise up every day defying the solution du jour from the Inside-the-Beltway deep thinkers.

The truth is the real world won't let us alone. Foreign affairs won't go away and leave us to feel our way out of the fiscal fog.

The Mideast is not going to suddenly break out in peace. The dove will not become the national bird of Israel. Nor will the symbol of peace replace the sword on assorted Arab flags. Hamas will not morph into the Woodstock Nation.

The US has accomplished its minimum strategic goal in Iraq. Our forces can withdraw without the odor of defeat attaching itself to our boots.

Beyond that one more-or-less happy thought, life for the next president will be demanding in the region. Unless we wish to continence defeat, more troops must be deployed to and die in Afghanistan. Reaching the minimum strategic goal of "not-losing" will be harder in Afghanistan than it was in Iraq. Not only is Pakistan a coterminous state, so also is Iran. The potential for Iranian proxy efforts in Afghanistan is lesser than it has been in Iraq due to the Sunni-Shia habit of mutual distaste. Still the Iranian proximity will be unhelpful. Equally unhelpful is the world wide appetite for Afghanistan's number one commodity--opium. (OK, to err on the side of accuracy, it's not the opium but the refined products of the poppy.)

Nor is it likely that Iran is going to join the ranks of adult, responsible global citizens. The mullahocracy is unlikely to discontinue its support for insurgents in Iraq, or Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas. It is not probable that the Iranians will abandon their quest for the bomb, particularly as they can continue to count on the PRC running interference for them.

Before anyone decides that North Korea can be relegated to the category of "no problem," we have to note that the recently agreed to (for the umpteenth time) framework, does not address the Hermit Kingdom of the North's highly enriched uranium production efforts. This means that even if the Northerners turn over a full and accurate accounting of every decigram of plutonium produced and even surrenders their stockpile to adult supervision, the denizens running the NKPA will continue to have the capacity to pursue bomb making.

Russia has problems. Lots of them. Economy and demography are among the number. So also is the running sore of separatist movements. A test launch of a new ICBM in no way addresses the larger scale deficiencies of the Russian military and the infrastructure which supports it.

In spite of its difficulties and arguably because of them, Russia may well become more of a global bad boy in the next few years. The US will have to deal with Russia realistically and hardheadedly. No more looking the Russian leader in the eyes and discerning some sort of hidden truth there as W. Bush apparently did.

If all those threats and challenges seem too far from home to concern us, then look down south. Hugo Chavez not only dislikes the US intensely (to put it mildly), he has donned the mantle once worn by Fidel Castro. Chavez intends to tweak the beard of Uncle Sam as often and hard as he can. To this end he has not only embarked upon an unprecedented arms purchasing campaign, but has joined hands with Hezbollah and Iran. Chavez and his running buddies, the jefes of Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, are not inclined to make small plans in their opposition to the Colossus of the North, Neither are they the kind to back down without genuine cause.

Still too far from home to worry you, bucko? Then try Mexico. The shooting war between the drug gangs as well as between the gangsters and the government has made the Land Down South one of the most deadly environments in the world. Over the years there has been a strong tendency for violence and disruption in Mexico to spill over into the US. The Great Fence of Presumed Security is not likely to stop this predilection.

Mexico too far away? Jest kaint get all that fired up over what those taco benders are doing? Well, matey, how about the following

The US national debt is very large. Is all of it owed to Americans? No. Quite a bit of it is owed to foreigners. Quite a bit is held by Sovereign Wealth Funds. Some of those are controlled by states whose governments are not all that favorably inclined toward the US and its policy goals.

(Can we say, for example, Peoples Republic of China? Or, how about repeating after the Geek, "House of Saud?")

A diplomatically phrased but no less menacing version of, "Remember, boy, we hold your note," can have a significant inhibitory impact upon US policy initiatives.

OK, to again err on the side of accuracy, foreign ownership of US notes can do far more than simply inhibit policy demarches, but you get the point. The net effect of the current financial market morass will be a significant increase in national indebtedness. Much of that increase will end in the hands of foreign governments.

Then there is that old standby, foreign oil. Unless and until We the People and those who purportedly represent us in Congress and the Oval resolve to "drill, ye terriers, drill" in order to buy the time necessary to develop new and better forms of energy prime movers whether nuclear, clean coal or renewable, the US remains to some extent at the policy and self-interest mercy of foreign states.

This has been a (necessarily) abbreviated tour of the horizon. It should have been enough to illustrate the accuracy of the Geek's contention: The next administration will be a foreign policy oriented administration.

We have seen what can happen to our nation and its place in the world under an administration more controlled by ideology than a strong sense of realpolitik. We cannot afford another ideologically driven regime.

We cannot afford another Cheney. We cannot afford another loyal water carrier like Condy Rice. We cannot afford more ninnies whether neocon or progressive.

We have also seen what happens to our role in the world under an administration which was naive about foreign policy. The Clinton Administration was both naive and uninterested in foreign and national security matters. Beyond that, the President lacked experience and thus moral authority to deal with the senior military establishment.

We and our nation will not do well with another group of naive and disinterested folks in and near the Oval. Remember, we've been there. Done it. Have the scars to prove it.

The polls and the MSM to say nothing of most of the Gang of Five Hundred urge the Geek to accept the political reality. The Geek is urged by all other than Joe the Plumber to accept and embrace the coming of the Obama administration.

The Geek can accept much. Embrace much. Life and war have taught him the necessity of doing so. He is unwilling to embrace the prospect of more years of failure for our nation. Sixteen years of naivete, of ideology, of blown opportunities is enough.

Elections over the past forty years have more often than not revolved around choosing the lesser of two evils. This time around, for the first time in eight years the Geek must choose the Republicans. He must hope that change means less ideology and more realism in both foreign and economic policy--the inseparable twins.

He can only hope that enough people go along with the same choice.