All too many times over the past several months--even after the debacle of the June elections and their aftermath--the President and his people seem convinced that Iran is a monolith, a giant which must be approached with great care and only after the performance of required rituals designed to placate the menace.
The truth is that Iran--or at least the Dreadful Duo of Ayatollah Khemenei and the wooden dummy on his lap, Ahmedinejad--are clinging to power only by the threat of force. Senior clerics have faced down the "Supreme Guide" even on such matters as the end date of Ramadan. The opposition continues to flourish even under the guns and clubs of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basiji.
The fault planes which have shown their existence before have shifted with much greater force and duration. The shift is to the disadvantage of the regime.
The Iranians have stated they desire a broad ranging discussion of numerous issues. The goal, according to Ahmedinejad, is to test the political good will of the US. Fine. Take them at their word--but make the agenda one of our own creation.
Start off with an examination of Iran's human rights record in recent weeks, months, and years. Go over it chapter and verse--and go public with all the details. The Iranians have not been overly successful in hiding their capacity for internal brutality, so the sordid facts are available even without a Burn-Before-Reading level security clearance.
Then, go on with a detailed examination of Iran's contribution to world or regional peace. It is worth taking a close and lingering look at Iran's peacemaking role with such noble humanitarian organizations as Hezbollah and Hamas. Or, as an additional feature, the efforts made by Tehran to establish peace in Iraq and Afghanistan, including their foreign aid efforts such as the provision of explosives, weapons, explosively formed penetrators, and other goodies to assorted gunslinging jihadists in both countries.
Of course, even the stooges from Tehran must admit that the whole arena of nuclear weapons proliferation is part of the big picture they say they must discuss in order to test American good faith and will. While it might be necessary for the Great Satan to take a backseat to the more robust French and Germans, the name of the game remains: Iran is an outlaw state.
Sure, the Russians and, even more, the Chinese will protest such a harsh characterization. Still, it remains the accurate and honest characterization of the mullahocracy. And, it will remain such as long as the Dreadful Duo remain in charge.
It might not be out of the question to hint at the potential of regime change. Sure, the Iranians will howl like a collection of stuck pigs and China may well join in the chorus. So what? The opposition Green Movement has made it clear that it shares the concerns of the civilized world regarding the Iranian "Mahdi Bomb." The Green Movement does have a shot at replacing the deeply discredited current regime--and deserves Western assistance in so doing.
The test for the Dreadful Duo is whether they will do anything to stay in power. So far, as long as the "anything" that needs be done is restricted to coercion, suppression, violence, and show trials, they have done just that. The nitty-gritty is whether or not they are willing finally to capitulate to Western demands on the nuclear matter in order to avoid Western support for regime change.
The risk is not that great. If the regime in Tehran decides that even veiled hints of regime change, of Western assistance to the Green Movement, are no more than bluff and calls it, the result is no more fraught with peril than is allowing the Iranian regime to acquire nuclear weapons.
Real sanctions might work. Who knows, they have yet to be tried. Real sanctions will hurt both the regime and the Iranian people. The net effect, though, given the events of the post-stolen election period, will be a strengthening of the opposition and a further erosion of the regime's perceived legitimacy. The sanctions alone might put the regime so far on the ropes that only an eleventh hour agreement to the terms dictated by the West will save their slipping hold on power.
The US and the far more realistic and tough-minded French and--who would have thought--Germans have two goals in the Geneva talks. The overriding one is the ending of the emerging nuclear threat. The other, and far more important in the longer run, is regime change.
Rather than acting as if we are afraid of the Big, Bad Mullahs, we should go ahead and kick the regime right where it hurts. The Dreadful Duo is down--but not quite out. The task is that of finishing them for once and all as the blot on humanity--and Islam--which they are.
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